VZCZCXRO2455
PP RUEHGR
DE RUEHKG #1161/01 2062025
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 252025Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5102
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0348
RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINGSTON 001161 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS, SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR (KHARNE/RBUDDEN) 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI ECON ECPS ASEC SNAR KCOR JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN ROUND-UP NUMBER TWO 
 
REF: (A) KINGSTON 1126 (201159Z JUL 07)(NOTAL) 
 
(B) KINGSTON 1144 (2329029Z JUL 07)(NOTAL) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.(SBU) In this second round-up of election-related developments: 
 
-- Dissolution of Parliament 
 
-- Jamaica's Closest Election in Decades? 
 
-- Violent Incidents Continue 
 
-- Fears of Violence May Favor Ruling Party by Suppressing Voter 
Turnout 
 
-- Debates Announced 
 
-- Report on Controversial Cellular Licensing due July 30 
 
End Summary. 
 
Parliament to be Dissolved in Advance of Elections 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
2.(SBU)  Prime Minister (PM) Portia Simpson Miller (PSM) has sent an 
official request to Governor-General Professor Kenneth Hall to 
dissolve the Jamaican Parliament effective July 25 in advance of the 
August 27 general elections.  The chief parliamentary counsel will 
prepare the Proclamation for the Dissolution of Parliament for 
signature and gazetting by midnight, July 25.  At that time, a 
proclamation for the holding of elections on August 27 will be 
issued. 
 
Jamaica's Closest National Election in Decades? 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
3.(SBU)  The favorability ratings of parliamentary candidates of 
both the ruling People's National Party (PNP) and the opposition 
Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) have improved, according to the latest 
Bill Johnson poll commissioned by the Gleaner newspaper and released 
July 25.  With a purported error margin of three percent, Johnson's 
latest survey claims that only four points separate the favorability 
ratings of both parties' respective candidates: PNP 40 percent, JLP 
36 percent.  (Comment: Recent polls by Johnson and others have met 
with widespread skepticism because of doubts as to their 
objectivity.  Post continues to believe that: 
-- the overall popular vote will be quite close; 
-- in approximately 25 of Jamaica's 60 parliamentary districts, the 
individual races are too close to call; 
-- much may transpire between now and Aug. 27. 
Further analysis will be provided via septels. 
End Comment.) 
 
Violent Incidents Continue: 
Opposition JLP Calls for Calm; Ruling PNP Strangely Silent 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
4.(SBU)  Sanjay Ebanks, the Office Manager for Opposition JLP 
(Jamaica Labour Party) parliamentary candidate Joan Gordon-Webley in 
the South-East St. Andrew constituency, who was shot as he was 
locking-up the office the evening of July 19 (reftel A), died of his 
wounds the next day.  This constituency includes the volatile areas 
of Woodford Park, Mountain View, Saunders Ave., and Jacques Rd. 
Earlier, Gordon-Webley had reported that her motorcade had come 
under fire.  PNP (People's National Party) General Secretary Donald 
Buchanan had dismissed her report as a "false accusation." 
 
5.(SBU)  The murder of Ebanks has provoked a strong response from 
JLP leader Bruce Golding, who has written a letter to Prime Minister 
(PM) Portia Simpson Miller (PSM) threatening to withdraw from any 
further bipartisan talks involving Buchanan.  Golding has called 
Buchanan "indisciplined" and "uncontrollable," and has demanded that 
PSM "reign him in."  Golding also warned JLP members not to seek 
retaliation, noting "every retaliation invokes a retaliation to that 
retaliation and there is no point in going that way."  Golding and 
JLP Shadow Minister for National Security Derrick Smith have asked 
Police Commissioner Lucius Thomas to establish a temporary security 
post in the community. 
 
6.(SBU)  For her part, the PNP Member of Parliament (MP) for 
South-East St. Andrew, Maxine Henry-Wilson, has expressed her 
condolences to Ebanks' relatives and stated: "the recent flare-up of 
violence in this constituency is not only most distressing, but 
demands the strongest possible condemnation."  Meanwhile, Buchanan's 
comments on the murder have been limited to calling for a police 
investigation and suggesting that the murder may not have been 
politically motivated.  PSM has not commented.  (Note: Because of 
 
KINGSTON 00001161  002 OF 003 
 
 
the "cheek-by-jowl" proximity and dense concentration of both PNP 
and JLP supporters, Mountain View, Saunders Ave., and Jacques Rd. 
comprise a particularly volatile area of Kingston.  Even in normal 
times, the area is prone to non-political violent crime contributing 
to Jamaica's high murder rate.  South-East St. Andrew, and other 
high-profile constituencies, will be the subjects of septels.) 
 
7.(SBU)  Thus far, the JLP appears to have received the brunt of the 
political violence; however, it hasn't been limited to JLP 
supporters.  A reporter from Nationwide News Network (NNN) claims to 
have received death threats following Buchanan's criticism of NNN as 
biased against the PNP.  NNN claims the PNP withdrew its 
advertisements from the network following its broadcast of a recent 
poll favorable to the JLP, and subsequent criticism by Buchanan. 
 
Fears of Violence May Favor Ruling PNP 
-------------------------------------- 
 
8.(SBU)  Jamaica has a history of political violence, which peaked 
in the 1980 election but since has diminished; unfortunately, the 
current unusually long campaign appears to risk breaking this 
downward trend.  Two factors may explain the risk: 
 
(A) As much as a third of the electorate has not committed to either 
party.  Jamaican political history suggests that these "undecideds" 
usually tend to vote 2-to-1 in favor of the party in opposition. 
 
(B) In years of violence, undecided (or not strongly committed) 
voters tend to stay home.  With recent polls consistently showing a 
close race, and the ruling PNP's lead over the JLP smaller than the 
percent of the population that has not committed to either party, 
suppression of voter turn-out thus can only benefit the PNP. 
 
National Debates Announced 
-------------------------- 
 
9.(SBU)  The Jamaican Debates Commission (JDC) has announced the 
dates for national debates between the ruling PNP and the opposition 
JLP: 
 
-- The first of the three debates will be held on August 8 and will 
feature PNP Minister for National Security Dr. Peter Phillips facing 
JLP Shadow Minister for Health and Environment Dr. Ken Baugh 
focusing on social issues such as crime and health. 
 
-- The second will be held on August 10 and will feature the PNP's 
Dr. Omar Davies (Minister of Finance and Planning) and the JLP's 
Shadow Minister for Finance and Public Service Audley Shaw focusing 
on economic issues. 
 
-- The final debate will be on August 11 and will feature PM Portia 
Simpson-Miller (PSM) squaring off against opposition JLP leader 
Bruce Golding. 
 
10.(SBU)  Poloff and DCM recently met with Matt Dippell, Deputy 
Director for Latin America and the Caribbean at the National 
Democratic Institute for International Affairs, and Martin Slutsky, 
Executive Producer, Commission on Presidential Debates.  Both 
organizations are advising the JDC on producing the three debates. 
The JDC sponsored the country's first live, televised debates in 
2002, during which the then candidates PM P.J. Patterson (PNP) and 
Opposition Leader Edward Seaga (JLP) shook hands - thus sending a 
powerful message of peace to the electorate.  Dippell and Slutsky 
reported that this year's debate will see the removal of sponsor 
advertising, reduction in the number of commercials, and reduced 
fees for television air time (Note:  Jamaican television does not 
provide free air time for debates or other political events.  End 
Note). 
 
11.(SBU)  The Aug. 11 debate between PSM and Golding has been the 
subject of much anticipation and speculation.  The two have 
remarkably different styles, with PSM exuding charisma and 
frequently alluding to God and "destiny," and Golding projecting a 
much more technocratic and businesslike image.  PSM has only 
participated in one other debate:  the 1992 PNP intra-party debate 
for leadership.  Both friend and foe alike judged PSM's performance 
against P.J. Patterson a resounding failure.  Since that time, she 
has tended to avoid unscripted moments with the media.  Her 
disappointing performance, however, is well-known and she may very 
well survive the debate due to low expectations from the electorate. 
 In private discussions with Ambassador, Golding has observed that 
PSM need only give the media one memorable sound-bite to look good, 
while he must perform well over the entire course of the debate. 
 
Report on Controversial Cellular Licensing due July 30 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
12.(SBU) Meanwhile, Minister of Information Donald Buchanan has 
announced that a report on recent controversial sales of cellular 
 
KINGSTON 00001161  003 OF 003 
 
 
telephone licenses by Minister of Industry, Technology, Energy, and 
Commerce Philip Paulwell (Reftel B) will be delivered to Cabinet on 
July 30.  Alleged mismanagement of Jamaica's Universal Access Fund 
(UAF) is only the latest imbroglio involving Paulwell, a close 
advisor of PSM, and may give political ammunition to the opposition 
JLP during the campaign. 
JOHNSON