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DE RUEHKG #1126/01 2011159
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P 201159Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5065
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0341

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINGSTON 001126 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR Randall c. BUDDEN 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI ECON JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN ROUND-UP NUMBER ONE 
 
REF: KINGSTON 953 
 
Summary and Analysis 
--------------------- 
 
1.(SBU) In this first edition of periodic round-ups of 
election-related developments post hopes to provide over coming 
weeks: 
 
-- By delaying national elections until August 27, Prime Minister 
(PM) Portia Simpson Miller (PSM) has given her ruling People's 
National Party (PNP) time for grassroots, ground-level campaigning 
in hopes of improving trends that PNP insiders say point to a very 
close race. 
 
-- Initially wrong-footed by PSM's election date announcement, 
opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Leader Bruce Golding has 
regained his balance and reiterated a longstanding call for fixed 
election dates in the future. 
 
-- With the historical specter of election-related violence hanging 
heavily over the country, the leaders and supporters of the two 
major parties send disparate signals.  PSM and Golding jointly 
condemn "any act of provocation, intimidation, or political violence 
that has already smeared the campaign."  However, whether either 
party leader has real control over his/her supporters remains 
unclear.  Isolated acts of random violence are ominous, and could 
escalate and then spiral out of control (reftel). 
 
-- For their part, the police claim they systematically are 
targeting communities troubled by political violence and will ensure 
the safety of voters and election workers. 
 
-- Former Prime Ministers P.J. Patterson (PNP) and Edward Seaga 
(JLP) have taken on contrasting roles in the campaign: the former as 
an active behind-the-scenes PNP strategist, the latter as a detached 
observer and commentator. 
 
-- Meanwhile, the powerful Minister of Industry, Technology, Energy, 
and Commerce, Phillip Paulwell, a close advisor and confidant of 
PSM, is at the center of yet another alleged scandal - this one 
involving cellular telephone licenses. 
End Summary and Analysis. 
 
Election Date Catches Most by Surprise 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2.(SBU)  Prime Minister (PM) Portia Simpson Miller (PSM)'s 
announcement that Nomination Day would be August 7 and the general 
election would be held August 27 took most Jamaicans (including 
members of her own ruling People's National Party - PNP) by 
surprise.  Speculation has been rife over the reason for the 7 
week-long campaign with two plausible reasons gaining currency: 
First, the Prime Minister is known to openly consult a self-styled 
religious "Prophet" who may have advised her of the importance of 
the number 7.  Thus, Nomination Day will be on the 7th, the election 
on the 27th, and there is a 7 week wait between the announcement and 
the election.  Second, and perhaps more credibly, the Prime Minister 
was under pressure to call the election but knew her party had not 
yet been able to unleash its "campaign machine" to full effect. 
Therefore, she chose to call the election, but to delay the actual 
date as long as possible to give the PNP time for grassroots, 
ground-level campaigning in hopes of improving trends that PNP 
insiders say point to a very close race. 
 
Golding Wrong-footed? 
--------------------- 
 
3.(SBU) Upon hearing the announcement of the election date, the 
opposition Jamaican Labour Party (JLP) leader Bruce Golding 
initially reacted with annoyance (at best) and outright anger (at 
worst).  He since has regained his composure, but has consistently 
pounded the PM for the lengthy campaign, alleging that the longer 
Jamaicans wait, the more likely election violence will erupt between 
the two parties. 
 
JLP Calls for Fixed Election Dates in Future 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
4.(SBU)  Golding also has reiterated the JLP's longstanding call for 
fixed election dates in the future, maintaining that the PM's power 
to arbitrarily call elections - when it is most convenient to the 
ruling party - places an unfair burden on the opposition.  He has 
proposed changing the Constitution to adopt a fixed election date 
within 100 days of assuming power.  Some legal scholars, however, 
maintain that: 1) this cannot be achieved in the promised 100 days 
after elections, and, 2) it may not be legal.  Constitutional lawyer 
and Chairman of the electoral watchdog group Citizens Action for 
Free and Fair Elections (CAFFE) Dr. Lloyd Barnett has commented that 
the provisions in the Jamaican Constitution are "entrenched" and 
 
KINGSTON 00001126  002 OF 003 
 
 
cannot be removed through ordinary legislation.  He also has noted 
that despite JLP's description of the parts of the Constitution 
which they wish to amend or remove entirely related to calling 
elections, the party has overlooked an important factor:  the role 
of the Governor General.  Thus, while a JLP Government might be able 
to remove the PM's discretion to set an election date, it is 
actually the Governor General who has the authority to dissolve 
parliament.  Once parliament is dissolved, elections must be called 
within 90 days. 
 
Violence or Peace: 
Party Leaders and Supporters Send Mixed Messages 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
5.(SBU)  The historical specter of election violence hangs heavily 
over Jamaica.  The threat, based on incidents of violence including 
the murder of hundreds during the 1980 elections, has been 
compounded by the long campaign cycle.  Both PNP and JLP candidates 
as well as the leaders of both parties have publicly pleaded with 
Jamaicans to refrain from violence.  Despite this, sporadic acts 
have increased, including at least four shootings (resulting in two 
deaths) and one arson as well as stoning of motorcades, shooting at 
political party members, and vandalism. 
 
6.(SBU)  Parliament agreed to a "Political Code of Conduct" in 
September 2005 governing the conduct of elections.  The Code, among 
other things, rejects political tribalism, violence, and voter or 
party intimidation.  If a party feels there has been a violation, 
they are required to first speak directly with the appropriate 
person in the other political party to reach a resolution.  Failing 
that, they may take their grievance to the Political Ombudsman - 
Bishop Herro Blair.  If the Ombudsman is unable to resolve the 
conflict, parties may take their case to court.   As of July 17, the 
Ombudsman had received 39 complaints since February (27 since June 
alone).  The Ombudsman can also call candidates or party leaders to 
meet with him if he feels it necessary.  He summoned both PSM and 
Golding to his office on July 13; following their meeting, the two 
leaders issued a joint statement condemning "any act of provocation, 
intimidation, or political violence that has already smeared the 
campaign. We want no further politically connected injury, loss of 
life or loss of property." 
 
7.(SBU)  Yet even as the leaders plea for peace and calm, they also 
convey their feelings that the other party is responsible for 
violence.  Golding has made several statements suggesting that PSM 
is responsible for the violence because the campaign period is too 
long.  Simpson Miller, on the other hand, suggests that Golding's 
frequent references to violence in a long-campaign period may become 
a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Whether either party leader has real 
control over his/her supporters remains unclear.  A long-time 
Embassy contact who is normally quite insightful regarding party 
politics, has dismissed all violence against the JLP as having been 
instigated by the JLP itself to gain sympathy; when asked why either 
side would resort to violence, she replied "the PNP will not draw 
first blood, but we have to respond." 
 
Shootings in Mountain View 
-------------------------- 
 
8.(SBU) Over recent days, three persons have been wounded by gunfire 
in the volatile Mountain View neighborhood in the urban constituency 
of Eastern St. Andrew, a traditional JLP stronghold.  One man 
reportedly was attacked and shot after objecting to political 
banners being posted in front of his house.  The Jamaica 
Constabulary Force (JCF), augmented by the Jamaica Defence Force 
(JDF), deployed a large contingent of police and troops to the 
neighborhood the night of July 17; they have set up buffer zones in 
an effort to prevent the conflicting parties from coming together to 
attack each other.  Ombudsman Bishop Blair led a "peace walk" 
through the neighborhood on July 18 in an effort to dampen 
tensions." 
 
JLP Candidate's Vehicle Hit by Gunfire 
-------------------------------------- 
 
9.(SBU) In a separate incident, the JLP's outspoken candidate for 
the hotly contested Southeast St. Andrew seat, Joan Gordon Webley, 
claimed that her vehicle had been sprayed with gunfire.  Police 
reportedly are investigating. 
 
10.(SBU) Deputy Commissioner of Police Linval Bailey has announced 
that the JCF will increase its presence in a number of communities 
troubled by political violence in the run-up to the August 27 
election date.  He maintains the police will ensure voters have free 
passage to polling stations, and that election workers and observers 
will be safe.  Among the "hot spot" areas to receive special police 
attention are Woodford Park, Mountain View, Central Village in 
South-Central St. Catherine, and Stony Hill and Brandon Hill in West 
Rural St. Andrew. 
 
 
KINGSTON 00001126  003 OF 003 
 
 
Contrasting Roles of Former Prime Ministers 
------------------------------------------- 
 
11.(SBU)  For his part, former PM and respected political father 
figure P.J. Patterson appears to have assumed an active 
behind-the-scenes role in advising PSM and organizing the PNP's 
campaign.  He reportedly has opened a campaign strategy office in 
the Liguanea area of Kingston, and is likely to play a low-profile 
but pivotal role as the PNP's senior strategist.  In contrast, 
former PM Edward Seaga has chosen not to become directly involved in 
the JLP's campaign.  In a detached and reflective editorial 
published in the "Jamaica Gleaner," Seaga noted that Jamaican voters 
were influenced more by catchphrases, slogans, and street language 
than by party manifestos or detailed logical argument, concluding 
that: "Those who are seeking a more straightforward issue-oriented 
electoral system, less colorful and less 'folksy', must encourage 
the development of a more successful education system capable of 
dealing with issues.  Otherwise, the country will continue to 
operate on a fiction of democracy." 
 
12.(SBU)  Meanwhile, the powerful Minister of Industry, Technology, 
Energy, and Commerce (MITEC) Phillip Paulwell, a close advisor and 
confidant of PSM, is at the center of yet another controversial 
scandal.  Paulwell noted that the sale of the country's fourth 
cellular license would go, after extensive due diligence, to a 
company known as Solutrea Jamaica, Limited.  Solutrea was to pay JMD 
510 million (approximately USD 7.5 million) for the license.  When 
it became unclear that Solutrea had, in fact, paid the full sum, the 
Opposition JLP seized upon the case.  Shadow spokesman for Mining, 
Energy, and Telecommunications, Clive Mullings, discovered that the 
license was sold without all required agencies agreeing to the sale. 
 It was further uncovered that Minnette Palmer, and advisor to 
Paulwell, owns a company which is a shareholder of Solutrea.  While 
this kind of practice is common in Jamaica, its timing (just six 
weeks before the election) gives the JLP something into which to 
sink its teeth. 
JOHNSON