VZCZCXRO4209
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHJM #1562 2081141
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 271141Z JUL 07
FM AMCONSUL JERUSALEM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8505
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI PRIORITY 0195
RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS PRIORITY 6663
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC PRIORITY

UNCLAS JERUSALEM 001562 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, MEPI AND IPA. NSC FOR 
ABRAMS/WATERS/SINGH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMPI KDEM PREL PGOV PHUM KPAL IS
SUBJECT: NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE POLL FROM GAZA AND 
THE WEST BANK 
 
 
¶1. Summary. According to a July 8 - 15 National Democratic 
Institute (NDI) poll, Palestinians disapprove of the Hamas 
takeover in Gaza, support early PLC and Presidential 
elections, want to see Fatah-Hamas reconciliation, and 
believe that Fatah is reforming itself.  Marwan Barghouthi is 
the political figure respondants viewed most favorably, with 
Mustafa Bargouthi, Salaam Fayyad, Mahmoud Abbas, and Ismail 
Haniyeh all enjoying significant support as well. End Summary. 
 
¶2.  From July 8-15, NDI conducted a poll in Gaza and the West 
Bank to identify popular views on key political issues 
following Hamas' takeover of Gaza. NDI is implementing a 
Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) program focused on 
political party reform and this poll will inform programming 
and future focus groups. Through Alpha, a local polling firm, 
1000 Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank were contacted by 
phone. The sample size disproportionately represented Gazans. 
 
¶3.  Full poll data divided by districts and with cross 
tabulation by gender and age was emailed to NEA/IPA and 
NEA/PI.  Below are some of the poll,s key findings: 
 
- 73 percent of those polled hold a "very favorable" or 
"somewhat favorable" view of Abu Mazen; 94 percent for Marwan 
Barghouthi; 90 percent for Mustafa Barghouthi; 76 percent for 
Salam Fayyad; 63 percent for Ismael Hania; and 51 percent for 
Khaled Meshal; 
 
- 75 percent of those polled support early PLC elections and 
76 percent support early Presidential elections. A 
significant portion of those polled (36 percent) would vote 
for a third party if elections were held today.  42 percent 
support Fatah, and 20 percent support Hamas. 
 
- 61 percent of those polled say the emergency government is 
legal (32 percent do not); 61 percent support the emergency 
government (36 percent do not) 
 
- 78.5 percent of those polled disapprove of the way Hamas 
gained control of Gaza. 75 percent want to see Fatah and 
Hamas begin unconditional negotiations with each other. 54 
percent do not think the emergency government will be able to 
resolve the situation in Gaza. 
 
- 66 percent of those polled believe that Fatah is in the 
process of reforming itself. 
 
- 23.5 percent of those polled support a two-state solution, 
7.5 percent support a bi-national state, and 65 percent 
support "a Palestinian state on all the Palestinian land." 
 
- 41 percent of those polld believe that Hamas is committed 
to fighting coruption while 30 percent think that Fatah is 
commtted to fighting corruption. 48 percent think thatFatah 
will improve their quality of life, 24 perent believe that 
Hamas will, and 17 percent thin that no one will. 
 
¶4. Comment: This was a telepone poll, and there are no local 
studies on the ipact of that bias on the data. In addition, 
in NI,s words, "there are no neutral pollsters in 
Paestine."  Multiple questioners were involved in asing the 
poll's questions and there is no way of nowing what sort of 
inflection was used in asking questions, etc. There are 
significant conflicts n the polling data (approval of 
leaders for examle). As with all polling data in the West 
Bank ad Gaza, we recommend that the results be viewed wih 
caution. 
 
 
WALLES