VZCZCXYZ0011
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHGT #1468/01 2042138
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 232138Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY GUATEMALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3360
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 4423

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 001468 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KCRM KDEM SNAR EAID PHUM SOCI GT
SUBJECT: MANO DURA DEFINED BY GUATEMALA'S PARTIDO PATRIOTA 
 
Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
¶1. (U) Summary.  Partido Patriota (PP) leaders discussed with 
us the candidacy of Otto Perez Molina and expressed concern 
over voter apathy, smear campaigns and possible election day 
violence as the result of a newly decentralized voting 
system.  They also demystified PP's "mano dura" campaign 
slogan by justifying the need for "hard-line" governance to 
ensure individual and economic security. End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) On July 12, Poloffs accompanied INR analyst, Angela 
Emerson, to meet with Congresswoman Anabella de Leon and 
Christian Ros, Chief of Staff to PP presidential candidate 
Otto Perez Molina.  De Leon took this opportunity to 
highlight her 20 years of government service and reflect upon 
voter apathy in Guatemala.  She said that the lack of female 
participation in the political process was due to two 
reasons.  First, many women, especially in rural areas, "did 
not exist" due to the fact they had never registered with the 
national registry.  Second, culture played an important role 
in women's lack of participation.  De Leon said that fear and 
silence dominated the country for a long time, and that women 
were only slowly beginning to participate.  Additionally, she 
noted that the culture of "machismo" continued to suppress 
women's participation and that civil society had done little 
to help the situation. 
 
¶3. (SBU) In preparation for the elections, party officials 
expressed concern over the likely upsurge in violence due to 
possible delays in election results.  They stated that the 
Supreme Election Tribunal, TSE, was one of the few 
institutions that was respected by the population, but they 
feared the TSE would lose this respect due to increased 
perceptions of fraud and election mismanagement. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) This year, the election process has been 
decentralized, creating more voting stations in an effort to 
increase political participation and accessibility.  De Leon 
and Ros agreed that this decentralization was a positive 
change, but also noted the TSE did not have sufficient 
resources to handle such an increase in infrastructure and 
demand.  As a result, they believed that the increase in 
voting stations would slow the final count of ballots as much 
as six hours or longer depending on the weather.  Results 
would be available the next day, rather than at midnight as 
is customary.  They stated that the consequence of these 
slower results could increase the frustration of the 
population already hesitant to trust the election process, 
and could generate suspicions and concerns of election fraud, 
especially in rural areas. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Party officials also expressed concerns over the 
"smear campaign" of Alvaro Colom's UNE party.  They accused 
Colom of meeting with Honduran President Mel Zelaya to 
discuss his campaign strategy.  They asserted that Colom felt 
threatened by the increased popularity of the PP in the polls 
and, therefore, blamed the PP for the recent murders of bus 
drivers in Guatemala City, accusing PP of intentionally 
creating a climate of fear to garner wider public support for 
its strong security platform.  De Leon asserted that these 
accusations were without merit, and that they would only 
succeed in creating more apathy among voters who consequently 
would be less likely to participate on election day. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Ros elaborated on the platform of Perez Molina, 
defining "mano dura" ("hard-line") as "security guaranteed by 
the letter of the law, no more and no less."  He admitted 
that the party debated using this phrase as their campaign 
slogan due to Perez Molina's military background and the 
history of Guatemala, but finally decided that the slogan did 
not equate to repression or a return to Guatemala's past. 
The "mano dura" platform, as explained by Ros, included 
citizen security and economic security.  Perez Molina would 
commit himself to enforcing the law by strengthening 
government institutions and demonstrating zero tolerance for 
corruption.  Ros stated that the Attorney General's office, 
which only successfully prosecutes two percent of crimes, was 
an embarrassment and required additional prosecutors and 
investigators.  Party officials were careful to explain their 
platform's security goals and that, although Perez Molina 
played a leadership role in the military during the internal 
armed conflict, he was a unique military figure who "always 
defended the constitution" and strongly supported the Peace 
Accords playing an important role in convincing his fellow 
military leaders to agree to them. 
 
¶7. (U) De Leon categorized Guatemala as a quasi-failed state, 
and contended that the foundation of strong security and 
employment opportunities would create a framework for 
"progressive development" for the country.  Ros acknowledged 
that more than 10 percent of Guatemalans had immigrated to 
other countries and blamed the deteriorating economic and 
security situation.  He applauded PP's Vice Presidential 
Candidate Ricardo Castillo for his proven skills in the area 
of economic development.  He stated that Castillo was an 
important businessman with a proven record as a consensus 
maker between management and union leaders. He also noted 
that Castillo would be a key player in the economic security 
and growth of Guatemala.  The party hoped to replicate 
Castillo's economic development success in Retalhuleu in the 
Eastern part of the country.  Ros said that the economic plan 
for the PP focused on tourism, an underdeveloped sector of 
Guatemala's economy due to the high rates of crime. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment.  Party officials' reflections on possible 
election result violence are buttressed by recent smear 
campaigns in the press, increased crime rates as the election 
nears and growing public concern over security.  Escalating 
party rivalry has also created friction between the two 
leading camps, especially as PP continues to hold a strong 
second place behind UNE in the polls.  We expect to see a 
rise in smear campaigns and inter-party attacks as we 
approach election day.  In terms of PP's "mano dura" platform 
on security, while party officials presented us with a 
seemingly comprehensive plan to guarantee the personal 
security of citizens and economic growth of the country, no 
reference was made as to how they plan to fund and implement 
such ambitious programs. 
Lindwall