VZCZCXRO1815
RR RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #0989/01 1840634
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 030634Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0569
INFO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 2168
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 2178
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 2137
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS 1231
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1990
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1464
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 2367

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000989 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM TI
SUBJECT: 10 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF TAJIKISTAN'S PEACE ACCORDS: BUT IS 
THERE REAL RECONCILIATION? 
 
DUSHANBE 00000989  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  At a two-day UN-hosted conference on ten 
years of peace and reconciliation in Tajikistan, Tajik and 
foreign dignitaries discussed the roles they played in ending 
Tajikistan's 1992-1997 civil war.  Instead of using the 
conference as an opportunity to expand political dialogue and 
pluralism, Tajik President Rahmon celebrated the end of a 
conflict he feels is far in the past.  Many of the delegates 
from the United Nations and other organizations missed an 
opportunity to prod Tajikistan to pursue a meaningful 
reconciliation, ignoring the fact that the Tajik government 
continues to shut opposition voices out of power.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U)  The government and the international community can be 
proud of creating and maintaining peace in Tajikistan after the 
civil war.  Speaker after speaker at the June 25-26 
International Conference on the 10th Anniversary of the General 
Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and National Accord in 
Tajikistan echoed the government's conviction that 
reconciliation had been achieved.  President Rahmon pinned 
medals on the UN special envoy and dignitaries from neighboring 
countries involved in ending the conflict.  Many paid homage to 
the late opposition leader Said Abdullo Nuri for his role in 
facilitating the peace process.  Former U.S. Ambassador Grant 
Smith also received the Medal of Friendship. 
 
¶3.  (U)  The Iranian Charge d'Affaires, Ahmad Ajalulion, used 
his June 25 comments to criticize foreign influence in Central 
Asia, particularly from the United States and Western Europe. 
Ajalulion said that foreign forces used terrorism to justify 
their presence, but in fact created a more fertile environment 
for terrorists.  Building upon this commentary, he called on 
foreign forces to reduce pressure on Iran. 
 
 
THE REALITY OF PEACE 
 
¶4.  (U)  Only a few speakers challenged the conference's general 
acceptance of the status quo as a meaningful peace.  Arno 
Siefert, a Senior Researcher at the OSCE Center in Hamburg who 
previously served as a political officer at the OSCE center in 
Dushanbe argued that the government's suppression of political 
pluralism was leading to a total absence of democratic 
expression, which would only continue to marginalize those who 
do not agree with the government.  Seifert pointed out that 
growing social and economic gaps in Tajikistan may cause serious 
conflicts and challenged the government to address regionalism 
and clan-based politics. 
 
¶5. (U)  Islamic Renaissance Party Chairman Muhiddin Kabiri and 
former United Tajik Opposition leader Akbar Turajonzoda 
highlighted some of the shortcomings which have plagued 
Tajikistan during the reconciliation period.  Despite the 
General Agreement dictating the government allocate thirty 
percent of elected and appointed government positions to former 
opposition members, Turajonzoda noted that in reality only three 
to five percent of such positions are held by officials not 
aligned with the ruling party.  Some conference participants 
excused the deficiency by suggesting a lack of former opposition 
members qualified to hold additional posts.  (Note: No one 
raised the issue of shortcomings in Tajikistan's electoral 
system that favor the ruling party at the expense of the 
opposition.  End note.) 
 
¶6. (U)  Kabiri noted that although National Unity Day 
commemorates peace, it is a sad day for many who lost family 
members and friends in the civil war.  He also lamented Nuri's 
death in August 2006.  Kabiri reiterated Seifert's message that 
the ruling party must allow varying viewpoints, either from the 
opposition or from within the government, or it risks long-term 
instability.  He pointed out that although the government had 
failed to enforce the thirty percent power-sharing deal, the 
Islamic Renaissance Party remained committed to peace, rather 
than resorting to violence as other parties might have.  He 
cautioned that the generation of politicians involved in the 
peace negotiations have left the political field, either 
voluntarily, by old age or political maneuvering, leaving a new 
generation who have forgotten the difficult lessons of civil 
war. 
 
 
PEACE THROUGH ROSE-COLORED GLASSES 
 
DUSHANBE 00000989  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Tajik Foreign Minister Hamrohon Zarifi reacted to 
Kabiri's comments by denying that the democratic process has 
stagnated.  In front of the entire audience, he sharply chided 
Kabiri for speaking at educational and political institutions in 
the United States without bothering to engage his "brothers" at 
the Tajik Embassy in Washington.  (Comment: This is not the 
first time Kabiri has received criticism for his speaking 
engagements in the West.  Some conference participants, 
including Kabiri himself, chuckled at the Foreign Minister's 
diatribe which seemed out of place and, if anything, reinforced 
the government's intolerance of opposing viewpoints. End 
Comment.) 
 
¶8. (SBU) Tajik government officials chose to deny that internal 
political problems exist and wanted instead to concentrate on 
their vision of the future, including the need for economic and 
hydropower development, rather than discussing the 
reconciliation process.  (Note: This is fully in line with the 
Tajik government's mantra of "economics before politics."  End 
note.) 
 
¶9. (SBU) Towards the end of the conference, Vladimir Goryayev, 
Acting Director of the UN Political Department's Asia Pacific 
Division, crystallized the generally self-congratulatory 
attitude that characterized the previous two days, rejecting the 
notion that there are still opposing "sides" within the country, 
and reminding the audience that Tajikistan is one nation, with 
one "side," and with one future. 
 
¶10. (SBU) COMMENT:  Whether the government recognizes it 
publicly or not, there are those in Tajikistan -- both 
mainstream and extremist -- who disagree with government 
policies.  Unless opposition groups have access to government 
and a voice in the power structure, stability and peace remain 
tenuous.  While Tajikistan has enjoyed ten years of stability 
buttressed by slow but steady economic development, Tajik 
society lacks the social underpinnings of tolerance that will 
ensure its future.  We understand that until the last minute, 
the government did not want to share the stage with any one from 
the former opposition; it did so only under UN pressure.  The 
inclusion of a few opposition speakers and award for the 
deceased Nuri were positive, but the conference, in the end, was 
a missed opportunity to look forward.  END COMMENT. 
JACOBSON