VZCZCXYZ0005
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1363 1981323
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171323Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8656
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE USD FAS WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 6366
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 6586
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0593
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6223
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUL CARACAS 1359
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 3421
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 2270

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001363 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
PASS USTR FOR KATHERINE DUCKWORTH AND MARY SULLIVAN 
PASS FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS FOR PATRICE ROBITAILLE 
TREASURY FOR ROSELLEN ALBANO 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/OLAC/PEACHER 
US SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ETRD ECON PREL EU AR
SUBJECT: GOA MOVEMENT ON DOHA UNLIKELY PENDING ELECTIONS 
 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (SBU) The EU Mission in Argentina sees little potential before 
October presidential elections for the GoA to support a Doha deal 
that cuts NAMA tariffs.  Post shares that view.  The GoA trade 
negotiator says Argentina counseled Brazil and India to walk out of 
the Potsdam G-4 meeting; that Argentina prefers no deal to "a bad 
one"; and that a Doha round failure will not cause Argentina 
significant harm.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Ambassador Gustavo Martin Prada, head of the EU Mission in 
Argentina, commented to Ambassador July 14 on the status of the Doha 
Round and Argentina's position in the negotiations.  Based on his 
conversations with GoA officials and private observers, Martin Prada 
has concluded the GoA's perceived need  to protect Argentina's 
developing industrial sector allows it little or no leeway in 
reducing NAMA (industrial) tariffs before the presidential elections 
at the end of October.  EU Ambassador and Ambassador agreed that 
high agricultural commodity prices give the GoA a cushion in the 
near term and that the GoA wants to assure the support of the 
industrial sector by hanging tough on NAMA. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Separately, in an interview published July 15 in 
Argentina's largest circulation daily, Clarin, Foreign Ministry 
Secretary (U/S equivalent, and the GoA's lead WTO negotiator) for 
 
SIPDIS 
Foreign Trade Alfredo Chiaradia supported Ambassador Martin Prada's 
conclusion.  For Chiaradia, while strengthening the WTO remains a 
priority, the Argentine bottom line is that they "prefer not to have 
a deal than to sign a bad one."  On Brazil and India walking out of 
the G-4 meeting in Potsdam June 21, Chiaradia said that "we 
counseled them to do so."  He also stated that failure of the Doha 
round would not necessarily lead to greater protectionism and "there 
is no reason to think that if there is no agreement, there will be 
great or irreversible damage" to Argentina. 
 
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Comment 
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¶4. (SBU) Trade liberalization, like most other potentially 
controversial economic policy issues, has been back-burnered by the 
GoA during the run-up to October 2007 Presidential elections.  GoA 
trade contacts at the Foreign and Economy Ministries tell us that 
that any Doha proposal that does not substantially cut US and EU 
agricultural subsidies will be impossible to sell domestically in 
the current political environment.  At a time when the current 
administration is concerned with maximizing support prior to 
presidential elections in October, the political risk for the GoA 
lies in making a deal that alienates key sectors needed to support 
Presidential candidate Christina Kirchner. 
 
¶5. (U) To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified 
website at:  http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires.< /a> 
 
WAYNE