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Viewing cable 07BRUSSELS2211, As Belgian Cabinet Formation Hits Snag, Former

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07BRUSSELS2211 2007-07-06 15:53 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Brussels
VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBS #2211/01 1871553
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 061553Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5853
INFO RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 1543
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1590
RUEHLE/AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG 8332
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1936
RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 8480
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 8004
UNCLAS BRUSSELS 002211 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR BE
SUBJECT: As Belgian Cabinet Formation Hits Snag, Former 
PM Dehaene, "Mr. Fix-it," Called in to Clean up the 
Mess 
 
Here he comes again 
------------------- 
 
1. On July 5, Belgian King Albert II tasked former 
Prime Minister Jean-Luc Dehaene, a Flemish Christian 
Democrat (CD&V), with a delicate mission ? finding a 
way to form a government that can implement 
constitutional reform in a way that is acceptable to 
the Flemish voters who want change and the francophones 
who do not.  Dehaene's duties also include helping to 
create the conditions in which Flemish and francophone 
Christian Democrats and Liberals can together agree to 
form a government.  Assuming Dehaene can manage to 
achieve these tasks, the hard work of fashioning a 
coalition accord could probably begin by the end of 
July/early August under the leadership of Flemish 
Christian Democratic leader Yves Leterme. 
 
A very cautious informateur 
--------------------------- 
 
2. Dehaene is the second man King Albert has asked to 
create the conditions for launching coalition talks. 
Immediately after the June 10 general elections, the 
King assigned the job of "informateur" to Didier 
Reynders, the current Finance Minister and leader of 
the Francophone Liberals (MR).  Reynders spent three 
weeks meeting with a host of interlocutors before 
producing a voluminous inventory of the state of 
Belgium.  He gave this Walloon-flavored Domesday Book 
to the King on July 4, all the while making clear that 
he wanted to see an "orange-blue" coalition of 
Christian Democrats and Liberals that concentrated on 
pocketbook issues, not the institutional matters of 
concern to a large minority of Flemish voters. 
 
Too early for Leterme 
--------------------- 
 
3. While Reynders was conducting his fact-finding 
mission, it became clear to most Belgian political 
observers that it was too early to task Leterme, the 
CD&V leader whose party has the most seats in the lower 
hous of parliament, with the burden of forming a 
abinet.   While all political party leaders, winers 
and losers of election, agreed that was eterme's task 
and prerogative to form a goverment, he required 
either a consensus or, atthis stage at least, the 
possibility of a consensus before he could begin to 
build a coalition.  If he were to try to do so and 
fail, a political crisis would inevitably have ensued. 
Such a crisis would have derived from the harsh 
mathematical realities of the election.  A government 
without Christian Democratic participation would be too 
weak even to contemplate constitutional reform, a job 
requiring a two-thirds majority in the 150 member lower 
house of parliament. 
 
A "bully" who can fix things 
---------------------------- 
 
4. The present delicate situation thus seemed to many 
Belgian observers as being tailor made for Jean-Luc 
Dehaene's peculiar political gifts.  Acting in various 
capacities, he has been the key negotiator in the 
constitutional processes responsible for transforming 
Belgium from a unitary into a federal state.  In sharp 
contrast to Reynders, Dehaene, who likes to cultivate a 
man of the people image, prefers to operate informally 
and out of sight of the cameras.  In the past he has 
had such a formidable network of colleagues and 
accomplices that he could produce deals that, whatever 
their faults in terms of "political beauty" (his 
phrase), had the advantage of being workable. 
(Comment:  The European Constitutional treaty of 2002 
is the obvious exception to this general observation. 
Dehaene served as vice-chairman of the "European 
Convention" that drafted the now defunct agreement. 
End Comment) 
 
 
Win over Francophone reticence 
------------------------------ 
 
5. Comment:  Dehaene's biggest job is winning support 
 
 
for constitutional reform from the francophone leaders, 
many of whom served in his government during the years 
of his premiership between 1993 and 1999.  Francophone 
leaders like Reynders and Joelle Milquet, president of 
the Francophone Christian Democratic CDH, fear being 
dragged into endless institutional discussions and 
complicated deals that will not work and which expose 
them to harsh opposition from within the French- 
speaking community.  They hope Dehaene can demonstrate 
to his own party rank-and-file that institutional 
reform is not in the offing without causing a between 
CD&V and N-VA, its small Flemish nationalist ally.  N- 
VA party leader Bart De Wever is adamant that his party 
will not join a government that has no institutional 
reform platform.  And without the N-VA, Liberals and 
Christian Democrats would barely have enough votes in 
Parliament to keep a government going.  Although no one 
seems to be in favor of it, no doubt Dehaene will also 
explore the possibility of forming a grand coalition of 
the two Christian Democratic, two Socialist and two 
Liberals parties.  Such a large coalition would of 
course have the two-thirds in Parliament to amend the 
Constitution. 
 
6. Dehaene told the press that he will not be pinned 
down on a timetable, adding that he wished to have a 
formateur (Leterme) in place by Belgium?s national day, 
July 21.  That leaves a mere two weeks to find a road 
out of Belgium?s political quagmire.  Of course, 
Dehaene's mission is not limited to institutional 
matters; he will also have to find points of agreement 
on budgetary and social matters.  Unpopular austerity 
measures appear to be looming, and agreeing on these 
measures may prove even more difficult than dealing 
with the institutional agenda.  End Comment 
FOX