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OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
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DE RUEHBW #1029/01 2011315
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 201315Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1210
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 001029 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PBTS PREL PGOV SR
SUBJECT:  Serbian Kosovo Position Continues to Harden: Kosovo Weekly 
Report (July 16-20, 2007) 
 
Ref:  Belgrade 1018 
 
¶1.  (u)  This report covers activities related to Kosovo for the 
week of July 16. 
 
¶2.  (sbu)  Summary: Kosovo was not as much in the public eye as last 
week, as there were no visits comparable to A/S Fried and FM 
Kouchner to report on.  The GoS showed private signs of increasing 
rigidity on relations with Kosovo and its supporters. 
Significantly, talk of calling presidential elections timed to 
coincide with the end of the 120-day negotiating period has 
increased.  Main news stories included the GoS's and Russia's 
rejection of the latest draft UNSCR and the visit of Duma speaker 
Gryslov.  End summary. 
 
¶3.  (sbu)  Most of the Kosovo-related news generated this week was 
from private conversations with our counterparts.  Energy minister 
and DSS Vice President Aleksandar Popovic had a terse conversation 
with the Ambassador (ref) in which he hinted Serbia's readiness to 
embrace Russia and abandon the EU in order to keep Kosovo, while our 
contacts in the European Commission here said that in recent SAA 
talks, GoS negotiators said they might not be able to sign 
cooperative agreements with neighboring states that recognize Kosovo 
independence. 
 
¶4.  (sbu)  Meanwhile, as 120 days of further negotiations loom, 
there is increasing chatter in the parties about calling 
presidential and municipal elections around the end of November - 
just as negotiations would be closing.  Most of the analytical 
community reads this the same way - a blatant use of elections 
(again) as a stick to try to beat back a Kosovo decision.  This 
time, though, Tadic would be in the fore, claiming his political 
life is at risk and threatening another Radical Party takeover - and 
likely drawing on Kostunica's support of SRS during the coalition 
talks to fan the flames of potential instability in an attempt to 
get fence-sitters in the EU to call for more delay. 
 
¶5.  (sbu)  In public, there was brief attention focused on the 
latest draft UNSCR in New York.  The GoS preemptively rejected it, 
and the Russians quickly followed suit (as portrayed in local 
press).  Government leaders spent their time on the road, probing 
suspected EU weak links to rally support for additional, open-ended 
negotiations.  Kostunica visited Lisbon, Berlin, and the NATO SYG; 
FONMIN Jeremic lobbied OSCE, Madrid, Ljubljana, Lisbon, and NATO 
(with the PM); and parliament speaker Dulic visited Ljubljana. 
 
¶6.  (sbu)  The visit of Duma speaker Gryslov was also covered, but 
did not make a particularly big impression on the media.  Our 
Russian Embassy contacts said privately that the visit was 
specifically geared to support the GoS position on Kosovo and 
reiterate opposition to the current UNSCR draft.  Presidency 
contacts told us the meeting with Tadic was pro forma, and focused 
on economic issues (mostly Russian interest in energy sector 
investments).  Since Gryslov was there in part to show solidarity 
with DSS, Tadic and company were not too enthusiastic about being 
involved in the meetings.  (In other news, Russian MP's beat Serbian 
ministers 9-2 in a friendly soccer match.) 
 
¶7.  (sbu)  Finally, there has been some news about debate over a new 
Kosovo resolution in the Serbian parliament, designed primarily to 
reassert the GoS position and to re-authorize a newly constituted 
negotiating team to continue talks.  The DS caucus has already 
grumbled to us that DS MP's have been completely cut out of the 
drafting of said resolution, but note that the Radical and 
Socialists have been extensively consulted.  One DS MP echoed KOSMIN 
Samardzic's quip that the resolution will read like a "moderate 
Radical" document.  The latest speculation is that the resolution 
will be voted on July 24. The democratic opposition has called for a 
public parliamentary debate on the resolution, citing the damage the 
government's position would do to Serbia. 
 
Serbian Government Activities 
----------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (u)  Local media reported 7/16 that KOSMIN Samardzic held 
consultations with parliamentary party caucus leaders July 13 about 
the Government's draft resolution on Kosovo. He said that the 
governing parties have reached agreement on the text while the 
opposition except the LDP and the Alliance of Vojvodina would 
support the resolution with minor additions. Radical caucus leader 
Nikolic said that the draft resolution is acceptable and not very 
different from the SRS proposal, while LDP leader Jovanovic 
criticized it as ignoring reality and offering no alternative. 
Samardzic said that the text of the draft resolution will be put 
before the Parliament on July 24. 
 
¶9.  (u)  Fonmin Jeremic agreed with NATO SYG de Hoop Scheffer 7/16 
that the most important thing was to keep peace and stability in 
Kosovo.  Jeremic said that new talks should be opened at once 
instead of debates on what resolution on the future negotiations 
should look like.  PM Kostunica told Scheffer that Serbia rejected 
 
BELGRADE 00001029  002 OF 003 
 
 
the new draft resolution on Kosovo on the grounds that it was a 
prelude to the creation of another Albanian state on 15% of Serbian 
territory. 
 
¶10.  (u)  Belgrade media reported that PM Kostunica said 7/16 in 
Lisbon that Serbia rejects any thought of Kosovo independence.  He 
advocated once again the resumption of talks based on UN Res. 1244 
underscoring that the new draft resolution is unacceptable for 
Serbia as it violates the principle of the preservation of 
territorial integrity.  Responding to Kouchner's and A/S Fried's 
comments from the previous week, Kostunica described the idea of 
having to choose between Europe and Kosovo as "an indecent offer." 
Blic wrote that some Portuguese MPs, including the Speaker, 
"supported Kostunica's stance that Kosovo must not be taken away 
from Serbia through violation of the international law." 
 
¶11.  (u)  In a meeting with Slovenian officials 7/17, FONMIN Jeremic 
said that Serbia expected a higher level of understanding from 
Slovenia compared to other EU members concerning their common past 
and the fact that they are more familiar with both the problem area 
and the delicacy of the relations in this region. 
 
¶12.  (u)  Kostunica and German chancellor Merkel expressed 
diametrically opposite positions in Berlin on 7/17 on settling 
Kosovo status and adopting a new draft resolution on Kosovo in the 
UNSC.  Kostunica said that a new resolution can come at the end of 
the talks and not at the beginning. He once again called for the 
resumption of talks based on the "good and valid Resolution 1244," 
adding that all draft resolutions including this last, fifth and 
minimalist one prejudge a solution for Kosovo's status. 
 
¶13.  (u)  Kostunica's DSS and Gryslov's Unified Russian Party signed 
an agreement on cooperation 7/18. Gryslov said that the agreement is 
an additional encouragement for interstate cooperation because both 
parties are parliamentary parties that are guided by the State's 
interest. 
 
¶14.  (u)  Belgrade media reported that Jeremic said in Madrid 7/18 
that Serbia will be ready to accept participation of Kosovo 
Albanians at the elections as well as having official posts in the 
Government, although this would have a seismic effect on the 
political scene.  Jeremic underscored the necessity for finding a 
compromise solution for Kosovo status based on European values. 
However, he stressed that the solution has to respect the 
territorial integrity and sovereignty of Serbia as well as the 
legitimate right of the Kosovo Albanians to self-government. 
 
¶15.  (u)  News agencies reported that Minister of Education Loncar 
said 7/19 that the Serbian Government strongly rejects any new UNSC 
resolution but requests continued negotiations based on UNSCR 1244. 
Loncar added that all six draft UNSC resolutions on Kosovo have been 
based on Ahtisaari's plan and are essentially a preparation for 
Kosovo independence, and that the Serbian government was firmly 
convinced, owing to a joint policy with Russia, it would prevent the 
adoption of a new UNSC resolution. 
 
¶16.  (u)  News agencies reported that in Lisbon 7/19, Jeremic said 
that imposing Kosovo independence outside the UNSC is a guarantee 
for destabilization of the western Balkans. Jeremic repeated that 
the Serbian stance was opposite to the U.S. stance on Kosovo, but 
Serbia wished to work with the U.S. so as to find solution that 
would guarantee peace in the region. 
 
¶17.  (u)  After meeting with his Slovenian counterpart in Ljubljana, 
Serbian Parliament Speaker Dulic said that the Security Council was 
the right place for resolving the Kosovo issue since the status of 
Kosovo after 1999 was defined in the UNSC itself. He also said that 
the latest draft resolution was unacceptable for Serbia since it 
contained the provision that the Kosovo issue should be resolved in 
the Contact Group. 
 
 
Reported U.S. Government Statements 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶18.  (u)  Local media carried USUN Ambassador Khalilzad's statement 
7/19 that the ball was in Russia's court and that it would be 
decided in the coming days how to close the issue. Khalilzad also 
assessed that it was time to see whether or not the UNSC would play 
an important role in the process. 
 
¶19.  (u)  Local media reported that U/S Burns announced Kosovo will 
be independent by the end of this year, through the UN decision or 
some other mechanism.  PM Kostunica's Advisor Jankovic reacted, 
saying that Burn's only argument for Kosovo independence is the fact 
that the USA promised that to Albanians.  Jankovic added that if all 
legal, political and moral reasons can fall before some precarious, 
legally unfounded promises made by a major power, then the whole 
international order should be in fear. 
 
¶20.  (u)  Belgrade media reported 7/20 that the Secretary said the 
 
BELGRADE 00001029  003 OF 003 
 
 
President has clearly stated that the Ahtisaari plan represents an 
appropriate basis for the resolution of the Kosovo status and that 
Kosovo should gain independence.  They also carried Ambassador 
Khalizad's warning that the process of resolving Kosovo status 
should be continued outside the UNSC if Russia should continue 
preventing the debate on a new proposal for Kosovo. 
 
Diplomatic Activities 
--------------------- 
 
¶21.  (u)  Spokesperson of European Enlargement Commissioner, 
Kriztina Nagy, said 7/16 that the European Commission opposes the 
Kosovo Albanian leaders' threat that they would unilaterally 
proclaim Kosovo independence. Nagy also said that Brussels is 
calling on all parties to abstain from unilateral moves, including 
veto threats, obviously hinting at the Russians. 
 
¶22.  (u)  On 7/16, local press reported new consultations were held 
behind closed doors in the UNSC regarding the new U.S.-EU draft. 
The proposal, press explained, envisages an additional 120 days of 
negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina, but this time excluded 
the provision that in case of failure, the automatic implementation 
of the Ahtisaari plan. However, Russian PermRep Churkin said after 
consultation that Russia would not support the text formulated even 
this way and that the duration of the negotiations should not be 
limited. 
 
¶23.  (u)  Russian Ambassador to Belgrade Alexander Alexeev said in a 
7/18 interview in Nedeljni Telegraf that there is no quid pro quo 
arrangement in Russia's support for Serbia in the Kosovo issue, that 
it is purely based on "basic principles of international law". 
 
¶24.  (u)  During his visit to Belgrade yesterday where he met with 
DEFMIN Sutanovac, DEFMIN Norbert Darabos of Austria said his country 
supports the Ahtisaari plan but believes Serbia should be actively 
involved in the resolution of the issue.  He said there should be no 
linkage of closer ties to the EU with the Kosovo situation. 
 
¶25.  (u)  British Ambassador to Serbia Wordsworth expressed his 
belief 7/18 that the new US-EU draft resolution on Kosovo submitted 
to the UNSC is the last one, and is entering the final stage before 
voting.  He reiterated his belief that Ahtisaari's plan is the best 
way to solve the Kosovo problem. 
 
¶26.  (u)  News agencies reported 7/19 that French FonMin Kouchner 
stated the previous day that he did not expect an agreement to be 
reached with Russia in the UN on the draft resolution on Kosovo. 
 
¶27.  (u)  Italian PM Prodi and Slovak PM Fico stated in Bratislava 
7/18 that their stands were very close. Prodi in a joint press 
conference with Fico stated that "when it comes to Kosovo, I confirm 
our interest in giving a really strong impulse to the region to 
develop relations with the EU, and to take Ahtisaari's plan on 
Kosovo as the basis, together with other European countries." 
 
¶28.  (u)  Tanjug reported 7/20 that the UNSC has postponed 
consultations on a new U.S.-EU draft resolution on Kosovo for 24 
hours to give Russia time to declare its standpoint and to see 
whether nor not the SC would play an important role in determining 
the future status of Kosovo.  Tanjug also reported that Russia is 
announcing a veto to the proposed resolution, and China has 
reservations towards it. 
 
¶29.  (u)  Belgrade electronic media reported on 7/19 Gryslov said 
that Russia will lodge a veto in the event of any one of the current 
resolution proposals on the Kosovo status finds itself in the UNSC. 
Gryslov said that Russia was making efforts to have the negotiations 
continued and that none of the draft proposals should be submitted 
for voting before the UNSC. 
 
¶30.  (u)  News agencies reported 7/19 that Kouchner said 
negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina could be continued even 
without the adoption of a new UNSC resolution.  He estimated that 
Russia would not agree to sign the latest draft resolution even with 
all the concessions. 
 
¶31.  (u)  B92 reported that Special Envoy Correa of the Portuguese 
Foreign Ministry in Pristina said that there were other 
possibilities for the resolution of the Kosovo status, in the event 
that this issue could not be resolved in the UNSC.  Correa informed 
the Kosovo Albanians that they should not be disappointed if there 
is no UNSC resolution since the Contact Group has adopted a brief 
period of negotiations which will enable Belgrade and Pristina to 
reach a possible agreement and find some solution. 
 
 
POLT