VZCZCXRO1978
RR RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHKB #0837/01 1840850
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 030850Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3397
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0599
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0425
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 2231

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 000837 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CARC; 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: PREL PBTS PGOV AM RU AJ
SUBJECT:  REACTION TO SURPRISE TRACK II DIPLOMATIC MISSION TO NK 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED; NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶1.  (U) On June 28, Armenian Ambassador to Russia Armen Smbatian and 
Azerbaijani Ambassador to Russia Polad Bulbuloglu visited the region 
of Nagorno Karabakh, accompanied by representatives of the Armenian 
and Azerbaijani intellectual elite.  While there, Smbatian and 
Bulbuloglu reportedly met with Arkadi Ghukasian, president of the 
so-called "Nagorno Karabakh Republic."  The parties traveled to 
Khankandi and Shusha before moving on to Yerevan to visit Armenian 
President Robert Kocharian, and then traveled to Baku in order to 
visit Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. On Friday, June 29 
Bulbuloglu and his colleagues held a press conference in Baku in 
order to discuss their trip, its purpose and its outcome (septel). 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Reaction to the trip was mixed, but generally positive. 
While the GOAJ initially seemed to distance itself from the trip, 
GOAJ statements - and President Aliyev's June 29 meeting with the 
Azerbaijani delegation - indicate that the trip was carried out with 
GOAJ support and approval.  Many analysts and newspapers, however, 
complain that the GOAJ has not provided enough information on the 
reasoning behind the Track II mission, and question why, if the 
government wanted the meetings to be unofficial, an Ambassador was 
sent as the head of the Azerbaijani delegation on this mission. 
 
Azerbaijani Government Reaction 
------------------------------- 
 
3  (SBU) News of the surprise June 28 mission firstbroke in 
Azerbaijan on the evening of June 28.  he Foreign Ministry appears 
to have been caught ff-guard by the Mission.  MFA Spokesman Khazar 
Ibahim told the press on June 28 that "the trip to Krabakh is the 
personal initiative of the two ambssadors - the former ministers of 
culture of Azerbaijan and Armenia."  Ibrahim explained that a 
meeting with "representatives of the Nagorno Karabakh community" 
took place in Khankandi.  He emphasized that those meetings "cannot 
be viewed as recognition of Karabakh as a party to the conflict 
since it happened at the personal initiatives of the ambassadors." 
Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor Novruz Mammadov later told the 
press on June 28 that "without the consent of the (Azerbaijani) 
leadership, the trip would not have taken place."  He cautioned that 
the trip did not indicate a change in Azerbaijan's policy toward NK: 
 "Still, Azerbaijan has not changed its position on the possible 
integration of (Nagorno Karabakh) into the negotiation process." 
Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov told the press on July 2 that 
"within the context of the Minsk Group negotiations, there are 
opportunities for the participation of community representatives - 
both of the Armenian and Azerbaijani communities of Nagorno 
Karabakh." He said that "once the question of occupation is decided, 
opportunities for negotiations between communities and their 
representatives and the government Azerbaijan will probably be 
created." 
 
Initial Public Reaction Critical 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Although most analysts and political leaders initially 
greeted news of the surprise Track II mission with concern and 
questions, reaction warmed over the weekend, as the public digested 
the details from Bulbuloglu's press conference.  Not surprisingly, 
Karabakh Liberation Organization leader Akif Nagi condemned 
Bulbuloglu's visit to Karabakh as "a disgrace and dishonour," and 
called for the resignation of Ambassador Bulbuloglu, according to 
Azerbaijani news agency Turan.  Nagi demanded that Bulbuloglu and 
the parties provide additional information regarding the trip and 
who they met while on the trip. (Nagi and other KLO members also 
tried to disrupt Bulbuloglu's press conference, septel.) 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Opposition leaders also were initially critical of the 
Track II mission.  Sardar Jalaloglu, acting chair of the Azerbaijan 
Democratic Party, emphasized the risk involved in Bulbuloglu's trip. 
 Jalaloglu said that the Ambassador was not authorized to speak on 
behalf of the state, and considers it "dangerous" to present Nagorno 
Karabakh as a party to the conflict.  Still, Jalaloglu noted that 
because he considers the citizens of Nagorno Karabakh to be 
Azerbaijan's citizens, it is therefore "not reasonable" to give a 
political opinion of the visit.  Isa Gambar, chairman of opposition 
party Musavat, said that "there is a definite need for more 
information from (official) Baku about this trip."  Gambar 
reportedly expressed great surprise upon hearing about the trip. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Nizami Bahmanov, leader of the Azerbaijani community of 
Nagorno Karabakh in exile, was far more welcoming of the mission, 
telling the press that "every citizen of Shusha, every citizen of 
Azerbaijan who is temporarily displaced sooner or later should 
return to his or her land."  Moreover, Bahmanov stated his belief 
that the visit would prove critical to developing an environment of 
 
BAKU 00000837  002 OF 003 
 
 
mutual trust between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and expressed hope that 
the trip will prove Azerbaijan's commitment to peaceful negotiation. 
 
 
But Opinion Warms as More Details Emerge 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Following Bulbuloglu's June 29 press conference, public 
opinion of the Track II initiative slowly warmed.  Anar 
Mammadkhanov, an MP, said that "I view this visit - as well as the 
meetings with the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents - as a 
positive step. Lately, the non-constructive stance of the Armenian 
leadership has increased the chances that war will break out. But if 
there is even the smallest chance that we can settle this conflict 
in a peaceful way, we must seize it. Azerbaijan has once again 
demonstrated its good will and commitment not only in words, but 
also in actions." 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Rasim Musabayov, an independent political analyst, said 
that "in my mind, this is all about preparing nations for a 
compromise.  Even though the mission was supposedly 'unofficial,' 
the delegates are people with public positions.  Given the level of 
the meetings, this clearly had to have been blessed by (the 
respective governments)."  He also emphasized that the delegates 
were themselves mostly Shusha natives, a fact which, to him, drove 
home the damaging nature of the division between Karabakh and 
Azerbaijan.  "The main purpose of this trip was to convince Karabakh 
Armenians that we need to live together," he said.  "There is a need 
to find solutions. These meetings don't harm anyone - and 
eventually, they may bring about positive results." 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Eldar Namazov, an independent political analyst (who also 
has been involved in Track II initiatives), sought more details on 
the GOAJ's role.  He said that "I have no doubt as to the patriotism 
of either Polad (Bulbuloglu) or Farhad (Badalbayli), and I am sure 
that this type of visit was not exclusively conceived of and 
supported by these men. This was a political initiative that was 
implemented with the support of the government of Azerbaijan - as a 
result, the administration should explain the trip's purpose." 
 
¶10.  (SBU) The Azerbaijan National Independence Party (ANIP) issued 
a statement on the recent visit to the occupied territories of 
Azerbaijan, stating that "ANIP seriously condemns the defeated 
policy of the administration and the visit to the country-aggressor 
and occupied territories. It is treated as disrespect to the people 
of Azerbaijan. This visit demonstrated that the promises given by 
the administration on settlement of the conflict were not sincere. 
It serves the goals of the other side. The solution is only possible 
through military operation and in accordance with the international 
law provisions Azerbaijani government should use its right to 
liberate the occupied territories." 
 
Coverage of the Trip in Newspapers and Media Sources 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶11.  (U)  The independent and pro-opposition media in Azerbaijan 
presented mixed but largely positive reactions to the visit. In 
general, the coverage of the trip on pro-government television and 
in official newspapers was straightforward, and carried no comment. 
One 525-ci GAZET article quoted Bulbuloglu as saying that while an 
older generation that still remembers its neighbors still lives, we 
should look for ways to communicate and to build bridges. 
 
¶12.  (U)  On June 29 the independent ZERKALO newspaper carried a 
front-page article ridiculing the MFA's shrugging the visit off as 
the Ambassadors' personal initiative.  "Ambassadors are personal 
representatives of Presidents and the initiative must have been 
sanctioned at the highest level," wrote ZERKALO on June 29.  "No, we 
do not call for Bulbuloglu to be punished.  If you are not at war, 
then you should conduct dialogue at all levels. But one should at 
least tell the public the truth - including the reasons behind such 
missions - instead of ascribing them to the personal initiatives of 
Ambassadors", concluded ZERKALO. 
 
¶13.  (U)  "The Cursed" headlines a column in the pro-opposition 
BIZIM YOL newspaper.  "I wonder what they  talked about with 
Gukasyan? Did they mind that the emblem and the flag above their 
heads symbolizes separatism from Azerbaijan?  Did Bulbuloglu mind 
that Gukasyan was the very person who gave the command to destroy 
his father's bust in Shusha?  What nationality do these three people 
belong to?" wrote a columnist in the pro-opposition AZADLIQ 
newspaper. 
 
¶14.  (U)  Another pro-opposition newspaper, YENI MUSAVAT, 
characterized the visit as an example of "the government starting a 
dialogue with separatists."  The newspaper questioned the purpose 
 
BAKU 00000837  003 OF 003 
 
 
behind the mission launched "apparently under the Kremlin's 
initiative".  Despite what Bulbuluglu says about his own reasons and 
purposes, he is Azerbaijan's Ambassador to Russia.  And as such, his 
visit to occupied Khankendi can be regarded as nothing more than 
groveling before the separatists", concluded YENI MUSAVAT. 
 
¶15.  (U) Asked by APA news agency about the U.S. position and 
whether the Minsk Group had a direct role in organizing the visit, 
Embassy PAO responded that although the Co-Chairs had not organized 
the visit, the U.S. fully supports such people-to-people exchanges. 
The PAO continued by noting that such contacts lower tensions and 
contribute to efforts to find a peaceful solution to the conflict. 
These remarks were widely reported by the Azerbaijani print and 
broadcast media. 
 
¶16. (SBU) Comment:  Given the heated public criticism that has 
accompanied other Track II diplomatic missions in the past, reaction 
to Ambassador Bulbuloglu's initiative has been surprisingly 
positive.  The GOAJ's implicit endorsement of this initiative - as 
conveyed by President Aliyev's meeting with the Azerbaijani 
delegation - certainly played a key role in toning down rhetoric in 
the pro-government and independent press.  While we view this Track 
II initiative as a positive and much-needed step in helping to 
prepare a climate of peace, the somewhat fumbled roll-out of this 
initiative indicates that much work still needs to be done to lay 
the groundwork for sustainable tolerance-building activities. 
 
DERSE