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PP RUEHAG RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHAH #0731/01 2041304
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 231304Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9047
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO PRIORITY 0445
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA PRIORITY 0467
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 2155
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0904
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0952
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ASHGABAT 000731 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN (PLEASE PASS TO USCIRF), DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KIRF PGOV PHUM PREL TX
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT TO TURKMENISTAN OF 
USCIRF CHAIRMAN CROMARTIE AND USCIRF COMMISSIONERS, JULY 29 
- AUGUST 4 
 
SUMMARY 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Embassy Ashgabat warmly welcomes the U.S. 
Commission on International Religious Freedom to Turkmenistan 
as the first-ever U.S. delegation here to focus solely on 
religious freedom.  Your visit will help to reinforce the 
U.S. government's message as it has sought to "turn a new 
page" in its overall relationship with Turkmenistan that the 
United States values freedom of religion or belief.  Although 
the new president, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, is making 
significant changes in some sectors, it is important to 
realize the country is at the very beginning of a new era. 
The wreck of a country left behind by the now-deceased 
President-for-Life, Niyazov, combined with 70 years of 
colonial Soviet rule, compounded by nomadic/tribal customs 
and lack of a nation-state concept, create the need for a new 
model.  Turkmenistan was never North Korea, but it is not yet 
Denmark.  Rather, the current state offers a rare opportunity 
to develop a new model; a model molded by, and representative 
of, the proud people of Turkmenistan, with patient but 
consistent nudges by the international community.  We 
recommend that the tone in this first encounter should be 
positive -- to encourage more openness and new ways of 
thinking -- but not hortatory.  Demands would be 
counterproductive.  END SUMMARY. 
 
INTRODUCTION 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Turkmenistan is a hydrocarbon-rich state that 
shares borders with Afghanistan and Iran.  You will find 
Turkmenistan in the midst of an historic political 
transition.  The unexpected death of President Niyazov on 
December 21, 2006, ended the authoritarian, one-man 
dictatorship that for 15 years made Turkmenistan among the 
most repressive countries in the world.  The peaceful 
transfer of power following Niyazov's death confounded many 
who had predicted instability because the former president 
had no succession plan.  President Berdimuhamedov quickly 
assumed power following Niyazov's death with the assistance 
of the "power ministries" -- including the Ministries of 
National Security and Defense, and the Presidential Guard -- 
but his position was, in fact, subsequently confirmed through 
a public election in which the population eagerly 
participated, even though it did not meet international 
standards. 
 
NIYAZOV'S LEGACY 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Berdimuhamedov inherited a country that former 
President Niyazov had come close to running into the ground. 
Niyazov siphoned off most of Turkmenistan's hydrocarbon 
proceeds into non-transparent slush funds used, in part, to 
finance his massive construction program in Ashgabat at the 
expense of the country's education and health-care systems. 
Politically, his increasing paranoia -- particularly after 
the 2002 assassination attempt against him -- led to 
high-speed revolving-door personnel changes at the provincial 
and national level, and an obsessive inclination to 
micro-manage the details of government.  Criticizing or 
questioning of Niyazov decisions was treated as disloyalty, 
and could be grounds for removal from jobs, if not worse. 
Niyazov's "neutral" foreign policy led to Turkmenistan's 
political and economic isolation from the rest of the world, 
and his policies calling for mandatory increases in cotton 
and wheat production led to destructive agricultural and 
water-use policies that left much of Turkmenistan's arable 
land salty and played-out. 
 
EDUCATION -- "DIMMER PEOPLE EASIER TO RULE" 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Niyazov's attacks on the educational system grew 
increasingly destructive in his later years.  The Soviet-era 
educational system was broadly turned into a system designed 
to isolate students from the outside world and to mold them 
into loyal Turkmen-speaking presidential thralls.  President 
Niyazov famously defended this policy when, in 2004, he told 
a fellow Central Asian president, "dimmer people are easier 
to rule."  Niyazov's destruction of his country's education 
system included cutting the Soviet standard of ten years of 
 
ASHGABAT 00000731  002 OF 004 
 
 
compulsory education to nine, firing large numbers of 
teachers and introducing his own works as core curriculum 
precepts at the expense of the traditional building blocks of 
a basic education.  He slashed higher education to two years 
of study and discouraged foreign study by refusing to 
recognize foreign academic degrees.  Taken together, these 
steps created a "lost generation" of under-educated youth 
incapable of critical thinking and ill-equipped to help 
Turkmenistan take its place on the world stage. 
 
RULE OF LAW -- A VERY LOW BAR 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Niyazov also left his very negative mark on 
Turkmenistan's political system.  His authoritarianism left a 
legacy of corrupt officials lacking initiative, 
accountability and -- in many cases -- the expertise needed 
to do their jobs.  Young officials who came of age after 
Niyazov's destructive changes to the education system are 
particularly deficient in skills and broader world vision 
needed to facilitate Turkmenistan's entry into the 
international community.  Laws are repressive and lack 
transparency, oversight and recourse mechanisms, and the 
population's fundamental ignorance of the meaning of rule of 
law has left the bar low in terms of citizens' expectations 
of their government. 
 
BERDIMUHAMEDOV REBUILDS THE SYSTEM HE HELPED DESTROY 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Berdimuhamedov still pays nominal lip service to 
maintaining his predecessor's policies, but he has started 
reversing many of the most destructive, especially in the 
areas of education, health and social welfare.  He has 
restored -- and in many cases -- increased old-age pensions 
that Niyazov had largely eliminated.  The president is 
embarking on a course of hospital-building, with the main 
focus on improving medical facilities in Turkmenistan's five 
provinces.  To this end, he has already authorized 
construction of five provincial mother-and-children 
(maternity) hospitals.  He has also publicly committed to 
improve rural infrastructure and to ensure that every village 
has communications, electricity and running water. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) In education, Berdimuhamedov is reversing many of 
the policies Niyazov ordered him to implement while he served 
as Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers for Education. 
 Since his inauguration, Berdimuhamedov has ordered a return 
to the compulsory standard of ten years' education, a return 
of universities to five years of classroom study, and a new 
emphasis on exchange programs and the hard sciences.  On July 
13, he called for recognition of foreign academic degrees, a 
major step which would allow exchange students to receive 
credit for their overseas study.  The goal is to repair 
Turkmenistan's broken education system as quickly as possible 
and to give the country the educated workforce that it needs 
to compete commercially.  These efforts, however, continue to 
be hampered by old-thinking bureaucrats, especially in the 
Ministry of Education, who block or impede foreign assistance 
programs, which they may view as promoting unhealthy 
"foreign" tendencies among Turkmenistan's youth. 
 
ELIMINATING THE CULT OF PERSONALITY 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Berdimuhamedov has incrementally started 
dismantling Niyazov's cult of personality.  Although you will 
still see pictures of the deceased president on many major 
buildings and references to Niyazov's literary works, 
especially the "Ruhnama," scattered on signs around the city, 
the new president has banned the huge stadium gatherings and 
requirement for students and government workers to line the 
streets, often for hours, along presidential motorcade 
routes.  That said, in some places, Niyazov's picture has 
been replaced by Berdimuhamedov's, and the new president's 
quotes are now replacing Ruhnama quotations in newspaper 
mastheads.  Why he's doing this is opaque to us.  It may be 
his manifestation of Turkmenistan's "khan culture," or 
perhaps he is signaling to the old-guard who put him in 
office he is not a radical reformer. 
 
SALVAGING A WRECKED POLITICAL SYSTEM 
 
ASHGABAT 00000731  003 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Although Berdimuhamedov made few initial 
adjustments to his cabinet, accepting nearly wholesale the 
former president's line-up, he has been steadily replacing 
senior ministry officials since his inauguration.  In most 
cases, these efforts appear to be focused on finding 
better-qualified individuals.  The president has established 
a state commission to review complaints of citizens against 
law enforcement agencies, which could potentially become a 
point of redress against law enforcement organs' most 
egregious abuses.  (Suggesting that he may be disappointed 
with the commission's slow start, Berdimuhamedov on July 13 
removed the Chairman of the Supreme Court -- the head of the 
commission -- in part because of the Chairman's "lack of 
management" of the body.)  He also has slowly begun to walk 
back some of the most restrictive controls on movement within 
the country, first removing police checkpoints on the roads 
between cities, then -- on July 13 -- eliminating the 
requirement for Turkmenistan's citizens to obtain permits to 
travel to border zones (however, the permit system remains in 
force for foreigners).  And, although the president has been 
slower to strengthen the rule of law, correct Turkmenistan's 
abysmal human rights and religious freedom record, and 
promote economic reform, he has told U.S. officials he wants 
to "turn the page" on the bilateral relationship and is 
willing to work on areas that hindered improved relations 
under Niyazov and to accept visits by U.S. delegations 
directed toward promoting change in those areas. 
 
FOREIGN POLICY:  A NEW FOCUS ON ENGAGEMENT 
 
¶10.  (U) Notwithstanding his statements that he plans to 
continue the "neutrality" policies of his predecessor, 
Berdimuhamedov -- probably at the advice of Deputy Chairman 
of the Cabinet of Ministers and Foreign Minister Rashit 
Meredov -- has put a virtually unprecedented emphasis on 
foreign affairs.  Indeed, Berdimuhamedov has met or spoken 
telephonically with all the leaders in the region -- 
including with President Aliyev of Azerbaijan, with whom 
Niyazov maintained a running feud.  He has exchanged visits 
with Russia's President Putin, and held a high-profile gas 
summit with Putin and Kazakhstan's President Nazarbayev in 
Turkmenistan's Caspian seaside city of Turkmenbashy 
(Krasnovodsk).  China has a strong and growing commercial 
presence in Turkmenistan, and continues to court 
Berdimuhamedov through a series of high-level commercial and 
political visits.  While Turkey has given Berdimuhamedov 
top-level treatment, including an invitation to Ankara, its 
relationship with Turkmenistan continues to be colored more 
by the image of its lucrative trade and construction 
contracts that are siphoning hundreds of millions of dollars 
away from state budgets here than by generous development 
assistance or fraternal support.  Berdimuhamedov has also 
held very positive meetings with high-level U.S. State 
Department officials and leaders of the Organization for 
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and United Nations 
to discuss areas of potential assistance.  He met with UN 
High Commissioner on Human Rights Louise Arbour in May, the 
Head of the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and 
Human Rights (ODIHR), Christian Strohal, and agreed to a 
visit by the UN's Special Rapporteur on Religious Freedom at 
an as-yet undetermined date. 
 
GAS GAMES 
 
¶11.  (U) Turkmenistan has world-class natural gas reserves, 
but Russia's monopoly of its energy exports has left 
Turkmenistan receiving less than the world price and overly 
beholden to Russia.  Pipeline diversification, including both 
a pipeline to China proposed for 2009 and the possibility of 
resurrecting plans for a Trans-Caspian pipeline that would 
avoid the Russian routes, and construction of high-power 
electricity lines to transport excess energy to 
Turkmenistan's neighbors, including Afghanistan, would not 
only enhance Turkmenistan's economic and political 
sovereignty, but also help fuel new levels of prosperity 
throughout the region.  Berdimuhamedov has told USG 
interlocutors he recognizes the need for more options and has 
taken the first steps to this end, but he also took the first 
 
ASHGABAT 00000731  004 OF 004 
 
 
steps needed to increase the volume of gas exports to Russia 
-- agreeing in principle to build a new littoral pipeline -- 
during the May tripartite summit in Turkmenbashy.  He will 
require encouragement and assistance from the international 
community if he is to maintain a course of diversification in 
the face of almost certain Russian efforts to keep 
Turkmenistan from weaning itself away from Russia. 
 
U.S. POLICY TOWARDS TURKMENISTAN 
 
¶12.  (U) U.S. policy in Turkmenistan is three-fold: 
 
-- Encourage democratic reform and increased respect for 
human rights and fundamental freedoms, including support for 
improvements in the education and health systems; 
-- Encourage economic reform and growth of a market economy 
and private-sector agriculture, as well as diversification of 
Turkmenistan's energy export options; 
-- Promote security cooperation. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Turkmenistan remains a tempting target for 
increased cooperation on energy and security, but its past 
human rights record makes this cooperation problematic for 
some.  In raising its human rights concerns, the United 
States focuses on three areas: 
 
-- Freedom of Movement:  Turkmenistan maintains a travel 
restriction list ("black list") of individuals not allowed to 
leave the country.  Most of the restricted travelers have an 
immediate or extended family member implicated in the 
November 2002 assassination attempt against President 
Niyazov.  The United States is focusing its efforts on 
calling for: 1) a clear and transparent process for placing a 
citizen's name on the restricted travel list; 2) notification 
to the citizen prior to his/her attempt to travel; and 3) the 
establishment of a process for removal from the list.  In 
recent months, some individuals whose names previously were 
blacklisted have been allowed to travel abroad. 
 
-- Religious Freedom:  Although Turkmenistan has improved its 
religious-freedom record somewhat during the past two years, 
some groups, including the Roman Catholic Church, have still 
been unable to register (a requirement for legal religious 
activity), and most groups report that they continue to have 
difficulties importing religious literature other than the 
Bible or the Koran.  Unregistered and some registered groups 
continue to experience police harassment, though for most 
registered groups, at least, harassment has decreased fairly 
substantially from previous years.  However, the government 
has resumed prosecuting conscientious objectors for evading 
military service after an almost two-year hiatus. 
 
-- Civil Society Group Registration:  Since the 2003 law that 
required all registered NGOs to re-register, very few 
independent NGOs have been registered by the Ministry of 
Justice.  The embassy has determined that fewer than 10 
independent civil society groups have received NGO 
registration under the new law.  Even those NGOs registered, 
however, continue to have problems, including monitoring of 
their activities.  The embassy has facilitated legal 
consultations on registration issues to civil society groups 
wanting to register, but ultimately the law on registration 
of organizations will probably need to be reformed. 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Berdimuhamedov remains closely tied to Niyazov-era 
interest groups focused on self-preservation because he does 
not have his own independent political base.  Although 
security cooperation with the United States continues to 
improve and the government has welcomed assistance in 
education, health and agriculture, many of the democratic and 
economic reforms the U.S. government promotes are viewed 
suspiciously by the regime.  We continue to link better 
bilateral relations and assistance in the areas where this 
government wants development to gradual democratic and 
economic reform.  For the longer term, we are focusing on 
preparing the next generation of leaders and society in 
general with tools to build a more democratic, secure and 
prosperous nation. 
HOAGLAND