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DE RUEHAK #1875/01 2040811
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 230811Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3088
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
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RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-3/J-5//
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RUEUITH/TLO ANKARA TU
RUEHAK/USDAO ANKARA TU

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001875 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: RULING AKP SCORES SOLID VICTORY IN 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION 
 
REF: ANKARA 1859 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (U)  Summary. Unofficial results indicate that Turkey's 
ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) scored a 
significant victory in July 22 parliamentary elections, 
returning to power with 46.6% of the vote, up from 34% in the 
2002 election.  Two other parties crossed the ten percent 
election threshold, along with 27 independent candidates, 
creating a fractious if more representative congress. 
Opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) pulled in 20.8% of 
the vote, a slight increase over its 2002 share of 19%. 
National Movement Party (MHP), which failed to cross the ten 
percent election threshold in 2002, captured 14.4% of the 
vote.  AKP appears set to form another single-party 
government, with around 340 of parliament's 550 seats, but 
returns with a reduced majority and short of the 367 seats 
needed to elect the next president or amend Turkey's 
military-drafted constitution.  CHP is expected to secure 
approximately 112 seats and MHP around 71 seats. 
Commentators view the results as the opposition's failure as 
much as AKP's success. 
 
¶2. (U) Summary cont'd.  Turkey's Supreme Election Board (SEB) 
Chairman stated the elections were generally free of 
irregularities, with official results expected within a week, 
barring major challenges.  The new parliament will convene 
five days after final results are announced; election of a 
Speaker, formation of a new government and election of 
Turkey's next president will top the agenda.  End Summary. 
 
¶3. (U) Turnout was high (84%) as Turks interrupted their 
summer holidays to return to vote in their neighborhoods in 
what many regard as a pivotal general election (reftels). 
AKP increased its share of the vote from 34% in the 2002 
elections to 46.6%, the first time in 50 years voters have 
returned a governing party with an improved showing.  CHP, 
with 20.8% of the vote, lost seats to AKP and MHP in several 
of its strongholds, such as Izmir, Antalya, Mersin and Adana. 
 MHP's nationalist campaign attracted 14.4%, reportedly an 
85% increase over 2002 results.  Independent candidates, 
including former (Motherland/ANAP) Prime Minister Mesut 
Yilmaz, Grand Unity Party (BBP) Chairman Muhsin Yazicioglu, 
Freedom and Solidarity Party (ODP) Chairman Ufuk Uras and at 
least 23 linked to the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party 
(DTP), will enter parliament with AKP, CHP and MHP deputies. 
 
Democrat Party Loses Its Head 
----------------------------- 
¶4. (SBU) Democrat Party (DP) leader Mehmet Agar resigned as 
chairman early in the evening, after DP stalled at under 6% 
of the vote.  DP Vice Chair (and former ambassador to the US) 
Nuzhet Kandemir also resigned.  The party, initially billed 
as a merger of the True Path Party (DYP) and the Motherland 
Party (Anavatan), held promise as a center-right alternative 
to AKP but stumbled badly when the merger collapsed.  Agar's 
resignation opens the field for a leadership race, and 
solidifies AKP's claim as the center-right's representative. 
 
A Whole New Ball-Game 
--------------------- 
¶5. (U) The hotly-contested election produced some notable 
changes from the 2002 general election.  Noting that Turkey's 
leftist parties, including CHP, won only one-fifth of votes 
nationwide, commentators stated AKP had overtaken CHP - the 
party founded by Kemal Ataturk - as the party that represents 
Turkey.  AKP improved its performance in Turkey's larger 
cities, including CHP-stronghold Izmir where AKP increased 
its share of the vote from 17% in 2002 to 30% in 2007.  AKP 
and CHP are projected to hold ten Izmir seats each, with four 
seats captured by MHP.  AKP reportedly more than doubled its 
votes in Turkey's southeast region.  DTP-affiliated 
independents pulled in 47.5% of votes in Diyarbakir, with AKP 
a close second with 41.9%.  Overall, DTP votes dropped from 
6% in 2002 (as DEHAP) to 4% in 2007, with many of those votes 
moving to AKP.  Nationalist MHP succeeded in luring more 
votes from CHP than from AKP to sail over the ten percent 
threshold. 
 
Next Steps 
---------- 
¶6. (U) The new parliament will convene five days after the 
Supreme Election Board announces official results, expected 
by July 29.  MPs will take their oath and begin the process 
 
ANKARA 00001875  002 OF 002 
 
 
of electing a Speaker and Bureau of Assembly, which must be 
completed within 10 days of convening.  The eldest deputy, 
CHP's Sukru Elekdag will serve as temporary Speaker in the 
interim.  President Sezer is expected to appoint a prime 
minister soon after parliament convenes, possibly by August 3 
or 6; past practice has been to pass the mandate to the 
leader of the strongest party.  A new government must be 
formed and approved within 45 days or the parliament may be 
dissolved, forcing another round of elections.  Once 
parliamentary bodies are organized and a new government is in 
place, deputies' top issue will be the controversial process 
of electing Turkey's next president, however, there is no 
prescribed start date for the 30-day process. MHP and 
independent MPs may hold the key to AKP assembling the 367 
deputies needed for a quorum and to elect a president in 
initial voting, suggesting that the new government will still 
need to seek compromise despite its solid election victory. 
 
 
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ 
 
WILSON