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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001731 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: HIGH COURT REJECTS CHALLENGES; 
CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS PACKAGE ON DIRECT PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTIONS TO GO TO REFERENDUM 
 
REF: A. ANKARA 1539 
 
     ¶B. ANKARA 1346 AND PREVIOUS 
 
ANKARA 00001731  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  Late July 5, Turkey's Constitutional Court 
(CC) announced that it had rejected appeals from main 
opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and President 
Sezer that would have annulled the constitutional amendment 
package that provides for, i.a., direct election of the 
president.  The package is now set to go to referendum; the 
Supreme Election Board (SEB) announced the referendum would 
take place October 21.  Barring other procedural moves (which 
can never be ruled out), the next president will be elected 
by the new parliament that results from the July 22 general 
elections; the amendment package would likely go into force 
in the subsequent presidential election.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) In a move that surprised virtually all commentators, 
the CC on July 5 rejected two separate procedural objections 
earlier lodged by President Sezer and the opposition CHP. 
The constitutional amendment package will now go to a 
referendum which, per the SEB chairman, is currently 
scheduled for October 21.  The package provides for: 
 
--direct election of the president (parliament currently 
elects the president) for a maximum of two five-year terms; 
 
--reduction of the current five-year parliamentary term to 
four years; and 
 
--setting the parliamentary quorum requirement at 184 (or 
one-third of all seats) for all constitutional provisions. 
 
¶3. (U) At this juncture, it appears likely that the new 
parliament that results from the July 22 general elections 
will elect the next president under the current 
constitutional provisions.  Based on the May 1 CC ruling, 
this will require a super quorum of 367 MPs.  Unless one 
party does exceptionally well in the elections and garners 
367 or more seats in the 550-seat parliament, this will 
require parties to compromise on a candidate if they do not 
want to be thrown back immediately into yet another general 
election. 
 
¶4. (U) The order of business after the July 22 election 
likely will include the following elements: 
 
--parliament convenes five days after the official 
announcement of election results; 
 
--parliamentarians take their oaths, a new speaker is elected 
and a speakership council formed, likely by mid-August; 
 
--a prime minister, appointed by the president from among the 
new MPs, nominates a cabinet which parliament must approve 
within 45 days of the PM's appointment or the president may 
call for new elections; 
 
--parliamentarians move to elect a new president; once 
initiated, a candidate must be elected within 30 days or it 
will be back to the ballot box for Turks. 
 
¶5. (U) The presidential election may run concurrently with 
government formation efforts. Normally, once MPs are sworn 
in, a speaker elected and speakership board constituted, the 
sitting president would appoint "an MP" (traditionally, but 
not always, the head of the party with the most seats) to 
form a government.  The PM-designee then has 45 days within 
which to form a government.  If no government can be formed 
within that period, the country would again go to the polls. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Comment:  Theories on why the CC decided to reject 
the appeals, as well as on timing and possibilities for the 
referendum and the presidential election are already flying 
fast and furious.  What is important now is that Turkey 
continue with the general election process already in train, 
and that all politicians proceed calmly and responsibly with 
respect to both the (parliamentary) presidential election, 
 
ANKARA 00001731  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
and the upcoming referendum.  We will counsel reason and 
compromise.  Anything can happen, though, in the current 
overheated election atmosphere.  End comment. 
 
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ 
 
WILSON