VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHAM #2990/01 1931258
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 121258Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY AMMAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9507
INFO RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHDC
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC
RUEHNC/AMEMBASSY NICOSIA 0918
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 0516
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 0147
RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV 0675
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS 3638
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 5281
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO 3262
RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM 4538
RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT 2655
RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH 1796
RUEHJI/AMCONSUL JEDDAH 0765
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 1504
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0606

UNCLAS AMMAN 002990 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ELA; NEA/RA; M/MED DASHO, DR. TRIPLET; OES SINGER, 
DALEY; AND CA/OCS/ACS/NESA 
STATE PASS USAID FOR GLOBAL HEALTH/K. HILL, D. CARROLL 
USDA FOR APHIS 
GENEVA FOR WHO REPRESENTATIVE 
ROME PASS US MISSION FAO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR ECON TBIO KFLU JO
SUBJECT: JORDAN'S POULTRY SECTOR AND THE IMPACT OF THE MARCH 2006 
AVIAN INFLUENZA OUTBREAK 
 
REF: A) AMMAN 1276; B) 06 AMMAN 2358; C) 06 AMMAN 2326; D) 06 AMMAN 
2176 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Jordan's poultry sector, the largest agricultural 
business in the country, has almost recovered to pre-outbreak 
consumption and production levels after experiencing an occurrence 
of H5N1 Avian Influenza in March 2006 (Ref D).  Jordanian Ministry 
of Agriculture officials and academics, however, estimate more than 
$140 million in losses for the sector primarily from the destruction 
of flocks, falling prices of poultry products, a decrease in 
tourism, and government expenditures to control the spread of the 
disease.  Although the Government of Jordan (GOJ) has taken 
numerous, significant steps to prevent the occurrence of another 
outbreak and minimize any affects on the economy if another incident 
occurs, Jordan lacks a comprehensive contingency plan to combat the 
disease.  End Summary. 
 
BACKGROUND: Jordan's Poultry Market 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Poultry comprises 55.6 percent of Jordan's livestock sector, 
which is the largest component of agricultural output in the 
country.  Jordan mostly is self-sufficient in producing fresh 
poultry and eggs, but imports most processed poultry products. 
According to a draft report prepared by Ministry of Agriculture 
officials and academic experts and presented to the FAO, there were 
2,202 broiler farms with a capacity of more than 27 million birds, 
producing 148 thousand tons of poultry meat in 2005, when the latest 
agriculture census was completed in Jordan.  Table egg production 
totaled 786 million eggs in 2005.  The annual average per capita 
consumption of poultry meat was estimated at 24.2 kg (53 lbs.) and 
table egg consumption at 157 eggs in 2005.  NOTE:  U.S. per capita 
consumption of poultry meat was 102.5 lbs. and table egg consumption 
was 255 eggs in 2005.  END NOTE.  Household expenditure surveys in 
Jordan show that the total value of poultry meat consumed was near 
JD 195.3 million ($280m), representing almost 4 percent of total 
household expenditures. 
 
¶3. (U) Half of Jordanian poultry is still processed by hand in 
special "Natafat" shops.  Seven modern slaughter houses cover the 
other half of the total dressed poultry production.  Backyard 
poultry production for household use is also an important factor in 
many Jordanian homes, but the total number of traditional backyard 
flocks is declining due to eradication of birds by both government 
eradication teams and their owners to avoid avian flu. 
 
¶4. (U) The draft report stated that poultry production in Jordan 
faces many obstacles including: 
 
A) Competition among locally-produced poultry; higher quality, 
subsidized European imports; and competitive Brazilian imports. 
 
B) Technical and health problems that raise the mortality rate in 
poultry farms to about 20 percent, compared to 10 percent in 
developed countries. 
 
C) Inadequate number of laboratories and diagnosis centers for 
poultry diseases with specialized veterinarians, and farmers' 
tendencies to diagnose diseases themselves and administer their own 
medications. 
 
D) High production costs due to increased cost of imported feed, 
which is the main component of production inputs. 
 
Socio-Economic Costs of the Avian Influenza Outbreak 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶5. (U) Jordan has had no more reported cases of avian influenza 
since the March 2006 outbreak, and the World Health Organization 
declared Jordan free of the disease two months after the reported 
incident (Ref C).  The majority of the losses sustained by the 
poultry sector were limited to the first four-five months after the 
outbreak. 
 
¶6. (U) In addition to the 19,000 birds destroyed by the government, 
as many as 200,000 backyard poultry may have been voluntarily 
slaughtered by their owners.  During the time of the outbreak, many 
Jordanian consumers decided to stop eating poultry products, 
significantly reducing prices, which fell more than 50 percent in 
some areas. 
 
¶7. (U) The study's authors estimated the total economic cost of the 
2006 H5N1 outbreak in Jordan for the poultry sector at JD 98.4 
million ($140M), largely borne by commercial broiler farmers who 
suffered JD 37.7 million ($54M) in losses due to the decrease in 
prices.  The tourist sector was also affected, accounting for JD 
12.5 million ($17.9M) in losses.  NOTE: Other events, such as the 
November 2005 hotel bombings in Amman, may have also contributed to 
this downturn in tourism.  END NOTE.  The GOJ has also spent JD 7.72 
million ($11M) on vaccinations, training new staff, and reforming 
biosecurity measures on farms.  Compensation to owners of the 
destroyed birds cost the government JD 63,000 ($90K). 
 
Preparedness 
------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) The GOJ has taken steps to prevent and combat future 
outbreaks of avian influenza, such as investing in new laboratories, 
hiring staff, and promoting new biosecurity techniques (Ref A). 
Jordan, however, still lacks a comprehensive strategy against the 
disease, according to FAO expert Jan Lambers.  For example, Lambers 
said Jordan has no clear strategy on whether to use "stamping out" 
or vaccination programs to prevent the spread of an outbreak; there 
is no clear compensation plan that would encourage farmers to report 
an outbreak quickly or follow the guidelines set by the government; 
and there are no best practice instructions for farmers to apply 
bio-safety concepts on farms. 
 
View from the Coop 
------------------ 
 
¶9. (SBU) Mosa Wakileh, a large poultry farm operator in Jordan, 
expressed confidence, however, to Econoffs July 9 that the country 
was fully prepared to prevent or handle a similar outbreak.  He 
believed there was strong cooperation among the GOJ ministries, 
universities, hospitals, military, and all the other parties 
necessary to effectively combat the disease.  Wakileh also remarked 
that if another outbreak were to occur, consumers would not react in 
the same way because most Jordanians are more educated about the 
disease than before. 
 
¶10. (U) Wakileh stated that some aspects of the avian influenza 
outbreak were actually positive for the Jordanian poultry market. 
Although significant losses in the months immediately after the 
outbreak caused some of the smaller operations to go out of 
business, he said that the market has since rebounded, prices are 
higher than pre-outbreak, and the remaining larger producers are 
looking to expand operations to keep up with consumption.  He noted 
that the outbreak brought about a branded poultry market, and 
increased the quality of the products being sold.  He also said that 
the marketing system for poultry had improved and was much more 
transparent. 
 
Visit Amman's Classified Web Site at 
 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman 
 
RUBINSTEIN