VZCZCXYZ0009
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #1690/01 2102339
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 292339Z JUL 07
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6175
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7067
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 8312

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 001690 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD DEPARTMENT PASS 
AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: DPP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE FRANK HSIEH'S 
U.S. TRIP, TAIWAN'S UN BID 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news 
coverage July 27 on DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh's trip to 
the United States, on Taiwan's bid to join the United Nations, on 
the plunging Taiwan stock price index Thursday, and on a local 
teenager who killed his father Thursday.  The pro-independence 
"Liberty Times," Taiwan's largest-circulation daily, ran a banner 
headline on page two that read "Taiwan People's Expectation and 
Rage:  A Big March for [Taiwan's] UN Bid to Be Held on September 15; 
Millions of Letters [Will Be Sent] to 'Bombard' Ban Ki-moon." 
 
¶2. In term of editorials and commentaries, an editorial in the 
mass-circulation "Apple Daily" discussed the reasons why Washington 
opposes Taiwan's UN referendum and urged President Chen Shui-bian to 
stop the referendum and "ward off disaster before it is too late." 
An editorial in the pro-unification "United Daily News" discussed 
Frank Hsieh's U.S. trip and said he has unexpectedly opened the 
Pandora's Box -- namely, Hsieh's remarks have evidently clashed with 
those of President Chen Shui-bian, who, in response, has positioned 
himself on the high ground of Taiwan independence.  An editorial in 
the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" discussed 
U.S.-China-Taiwan relations as well as the values shared by Taiwan 
and the United States.  With regard to Taiwan's UN bid, an op-ed in 
the centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" said the United States is in 
no position to oppose Taiwan's UN referendum, because it is already 
too late and because Washington is no longer justified in doing so. 
A separate "Taipei Times" op-ed said Taiwan's flexibility is of no 
help on the sovereignty issue.  End summary. 
 
¶3. DPP Presidential Candidate Frank Hsieh's U.S. Trip 
 
A) "Rein in a Horse at the Edge of a Precipice -- Ward off Disaster 
before It Is Too Late" 
 
The mass-circulation "Apple Daily" [circulation: 520,000] 
editorialized (7/27): 
 
"Very much to Frank Hsieh's surprise, almost all the think tank 
scholars and political figures he met in the United States have 
unanimously articulated strong opposition to Taiwan's referendum on 
joining the United Nations.  The reason [for these people's 
opposition] is actually very simple.  The move is viewed as one that 
is aimed at using Taiwan as the island's national name and its UN 
bid as a smokescreen, in an attempt to conduct a popular vote on 
changing the island's national title.  Once the referendum is 
passed, it will surely embarrass the Chinese leaders, who, in turn, 
will be forced to take action, and the consequence will be that 
China will have to confront the United States and thus disrupt the 
latter's global strategic deployment. ... 
 
"In addition to the aforementioned reasons, other reasons behind the 
United States' strong opposition to [Taiwan's] UN referendum 
include:  First, [Washington] cannot accept the fact that it is 
being restrained by Taiwan, nor will it possibly walk into a trap 
set by Taiwan to wage war with China.  Second, it can mitigate 
China's anxiety and rage if it is the United States that comes 
forward to admonish Taiwan and hold down its plan on the UN 
referendum.  As a result, Washington has to take a strong stance so 
as to prevent China from making any reckless moves.  Third, 
Washington and Beijing each use disciplining Taipei and Pyongyang as 
quid pro quo.  If the United States fails to curb Taiwan, China will 
not do anything to restrain North Korea, or vice versa.  Fourth, now 
is a critical moment for the war on terrorism.  Given the fact that 
the war in Iraq has triggered protests in the United States, it is 
better not to start any conflicts [in other parts of the world]. 
This paper wants to urge President Chen to ward off disaster before 
it is too late.  He must not turn hostile toward the United States 
and put all the Taiwan people under great risk just for his face and 
personal feelings." 
 
B) "Frank Hsieh Has Opened Pandora's Box" 
 
The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] 
editorialized (7/27): 
 
"Frank Hsieh's original plan was to use his U.S. trip to boost his 
campaign but, unexpectedly, he has opened Pandora's Box.  First, 
clashes between Bian's and Hsieh's discourses have escalated.  Bian 
has evidently positioned himself on the high ground to dictate the 
issue, while Hsieh is marginalized in terms of his campaign 
discourse.  Second, under such circumstances, the possibility of the 
'Hsieh-Su ticket' is quickly on the rise, which will put Hsieh 
completely under Chen Shui-bian's shadow. ... 
 
"... The worst clashes between Hsieh and Bian is that to 'placate' 
Washington, Hsieh said he has openly announced his 'Three Nos' -- 
namely, there is no need for a referendum on Taiwan independence, 
for Taiwan independence movements, or for Taiwan to declare 
independence.  Hsieh's remarks were appeared to be in sharp 
 
 
opposition to Chen's 'Four Nos and One Without.'  In particular, be 
it a verbal mistake or not, the sentence 'there is no need for 
Taiwan independence movements' has totally contradicted the 
fundamental doctrines of the DPP.  To no one's surprise, within a 
few hours following Hsieh's remarks, Chen pointed out in Taipei as a 
challenge to Hsieh that 'Taiwan's future and [the development of] 
cross-Strait relations should be decided via a referendum.'  Chen's 
statement has evidently exceeded the 'UN referendum,' and all the 
more, by aiming at Hsieh's 'Three Nos,' Chen seized this opportunity 
to take the high ground on the independence referendum. ..." 
 
C) "Taiwan and American Values" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (7/27): 
 
"For all of the talk of tension between them, it is perfectly clear 
that Washington makes demands of the Taiwanese government on the 
assumption that the two share fundamental interests.  Taiwan's 
resulting burden, as a de facto US ally, involves coming to terms 
with being treated -- and sometimes spoken to -- like an errant 
schoolchild.  This patronizing tone can be difficult to tolerate, 
especially for those among pro-independence forces who suffered for 
years to create a society that shares the best of American values. 
The tone becomes genuinely unbearable, however, when it threatens to 
have a chilling effect on the Taiwanese who are most sympathetic to 
the US. ... 
 
"In recent years, it is these people -- not just President Chen 
Shui-bian -- who helped to create an impression among US officials 
that Taiwanese are troublesome, scattershot in their approach and 
unreliable in their allegiances.  By the same token, it is clear 
that the political-academic establishment in Washington does not 
adequately comprehend the fundamentals of Taiwanese politics.  It is 
as if they assume Taiwan to have the quasi-monolithic features of an 
autocratic party-state such as China.  Consequently, the lion's 
share of the blame for military and diplomatic tensions falls on the 
government and not the hardline legislature that has handicapped it. 
 Rarely are domestic factors such as these given the weight they 
deserve in accounting for political developments, which is odd 
considering how little political change there is in cross-strait 
relations. 
 
"It is also becoming abundantly clear, for example, that in the 
bowels of the US Department of State there are advisers who look 
upon Taiwanese as collectively responsible -- that is to say, 
irresponsible -- for the difficulties in the US-China relationship. 
...  Keeping Washington happy while furthering the interests of 
Taiwanese self-determination is a perplexing task, but it is one 
that has proceeded reasonably successfully under the Chen 
administration, notwithstanding its many failures.  Washington and 
the State Department in particular, like to imply that Chen is 
hurting the Taiwan-US relationship.  But it Democratic Progressive 
Party presidential candidate Frank Hsieh wins the next election, 
they will quickly discover that the job description for a leader 
protecting this democracy from tyrants includes this enduring 
dilemma:  Standing up to China inevitably involves treading on a lot 
of American toes.  But it is not inevitable that Washington or 
Americans should perceive these actions as a slight against them. 
On the contrary:  It is an affirmation of the same values that make 
the US powerful and that sustain its dignity even when its 
credibility in the international community is at low ebb." 
 
¶4. Taiwan's UN Bid 
 
A) "The United States Is in No Position to Oppose Taiwan's UN 
Referendum" 
 
Professor Edward Chen of Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of 
American Studies opined in the centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" 
[circulation: 400,000] (7/27): 
 
"Recently, officials in Washington D.C. have more than once informed 
Taipei via various channels that the United States is opposed to 
Taiwan holding a referendum on joining the UN.  Washington believes 
that such a referendum is a move approaching the red line, and there 
is only a thin line between it and the referendum on independence. 
But judging from the following reasons, the United States is no 
longer in a position to oppose Taiwan's UN referendum. 
 
"First, since Washington already reacted too slowly to this issue, 
it is obviously too late for it to do anything right now.  It has 
been at least more than a month since Chen Shui-bian announced 
formally that the island will enter the UN under the name Taiwan. 
In reality, his attempt to push Taiwan's bid to join the World 
Health Organization using the name Taiwan is a prelude of Taiwan's 
UN referendum.  It has been nearly a year since Chen tossed off 
probingly last year issues one after another such as name change, 
U.S. TRIP, TAIWAN'S UN BID 
 
writing a new constitution, the Second Republic, and Taiwan's UN 
referendum.  Almost every political party in Taiwan is aware that it 
would be fine if Chen decided not to play the game of holding a 
referendum in tandem with major elections, but should he decide to 
do so, he will definitely pick the biggest one - namely, the 
referendum on Taiwan's UN bid.  It is thus evident that Washington 
has missed the optimal timing to oppose [such a referendum]. 
Second, since the United States 'started with a bang and ended with 
a fizzle' when it opposed the DPP's holding a defensive referendum 
in 2004, Washington is no longer justifiable in taking the lead to 
oppose Taiwan's UN referendum this time. ... 
 
"Third, either Washington or Beijing must analyze first the 
advantages and disadvantages of Taiwan's UN referendum.  What 
Washington and Beijing are really opposed to should be the 
'disguised independence referenda' on Taiwan's future and the formal 
'referendum on Taiwan independence.'  Frank Hsieh has stated and 
pledged that he will not push for an independence referendum after 
he is elected.  But Chen, with a short remainder term of office, 
instead, likely will rush headlong into danger.  The red line that 
Washington and Beijing should draw should be on a formal 'referendum 
on Taiwan independence' or a disguised 'independence referendum,' 
not the UN referendum. ... 
 
"Neither Washington nor Beijing believes that Taiwan independence is 
in their national interests.  In order to give the momentum of 
anti-independence going, however, both Washington and Beijing should 
adjust their positions. ...  Washington should convince Beijing that 
even though Taiwan's UN referendum in of high political sensitivity, 
the passage of such a referendum does not indicate that Taiwan will 
be admitted into the UN.  Such a move thus has no worries about 
changing the status quo.  Rather, Washington and Beijing joining 
hands to block Taiwan's UN referendum will cause Chen to stake 
everything on a single throw of dice and push for a disguised 
independence referendum or a formal referendum on Taiwan 
independence, which will truly alter the cross-Strait status quo." 
 
 
B) "Flexibility of No Help on Issue of Sovereignty" 
 
Lai I-chung, head of the DPP's Department of International Affairs, 
opined in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] (7/27): 
 
"... Taiwan's past flexibility on the issue of sovereignty in 
international contexts has only emboldened China to step up 
propaganda in support of its 'one China' fantasy.  This has allowed 
China to make its 'one China' concept international.  As a result, 
many countries are completely apathetic to China's aggressive 
promotion of the 'one China' principle.  This has gone so far as to 
lead UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to say that Taiwan is part of 
China, which is a blatant denial of the political reality. ... 
 
"What all of this means is that we need to abandon the strategy of 
avoiding conflict by being flexible on our sovereignty.  It is time 
to make Taiwan's opinion on its sovereignty clear to the world. ... 
The only course of action is to let the UN know that Taiwan -- not 
only its government, but also its people -- wants to become a 
member.  This will force it to stop turning a blind eye to the fact 
that our population is not represented at the UN." 
 
YOUNG