VZCZCXRO5811
RR RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #2265/01 1990834
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 180834Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7052
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD QLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 4003

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002265 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
SIPDIS 
 
USAID/DCHA FOR M.HESS, G.GOTTLIEB 
DCHA/OFDA FOR K.LUU, A.FERRARA, A.CONVERY, K.CHANNELL 
DCHA/FFP FOR W.HAMMINK, J.DWORKEN 
AFR/AFR/EA FOR B.DUNFORD 
STATE FOR AF/E, AF/F AND PRM 
CJTF HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD 
USUN FOR T.MALY 
USEU BRUSSELS FOR P.LERNER 
USMISSION GENEVA FOR N.KYLOH 
USMISSION UN ROME FOR R.NEWBERG 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID PHUM PREL PREF MASS ET
SUBJECT:  ETHIOPIA:  FLOOD WARNING - PREPARING FOR THE WORSE 
 
¶1. SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST for AF Bureau, USAID-OFDA, DCHA and 
DOD/OSD: Early warning for the Horn of Africa forecasts heavy 
rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, great or greater than last 
year's, during the July-Sept "kiremt" season with serious floods 
likely, especially in major river basins (Omo, Shabelle, Tana, 
Gambella.)  The omo is already experiencing flooding.  The GOE is 
taking actions to clear and provide early-warning in flood plains 
and to manage reservoir levels; however, its response capabilities 
are limited.  Last year, the GOE requested emergency assistance for 
flood relief, and we expect similar requests this year. The USG 
response last year--with tents, supplies and airlift--was highly 
effective and lauded in local media.  While OFDA and CJTF-HOA are 
already initiating action, to avoid any delays in this year's 
response, Post formally requests the pre-positioning by USAID and 
DOD of emergency response equipment (like small boats and tents) and 
relief supplies (such as blankets and water).  It also requests 
pre-approval by State and DOD of CJTF-HOA military airlift 
capability as available.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. NOTE:  The EmbQy is already working with CJTF-HOA to 
preposition tents, small boats, and water purification equipment in 
Addis Ababa to meet anticipated problems from flooding.  Airlift 
pre-approval by Washington will enable Post to respond quickly once 
there is flooding.  We wish to avoid the delays of last year.  END 
NOTE. 
 
---------- 
BACKGROUND 
---------- 
 
¶3. Major floods in 2006 in Ethiopia caused over 1,000 deaths, 
especially in the Dire Dawa area in the east, the Wabe Shebelle in 
Somali region near the Somalia border, and the south Omo area. 
Early warning data indicate that the flooding situation could be 
worse in 2007.  Apart from forecasts of heavier rain in the 
highlands, which feeds the river systems, the level of water in the 
major dams on these rivers is higher than in 2006, and projected to 
go even higher.   There has been one serious flood already, on July 
9-10 on the Weito (or Wotio) River in south Omo, with 4,000 
pastoralists marooned by the rising river on an island, who needed 
rescue by boats.  The main flooding did not affect the south Omo 
area until mid-August in 2006, indicating that flooding may be 
earlier and more serious in 2007. 
 
¶4. Other flood-prone areas are also being monitored, including: 
Gambella, the Lake Tana area, Humera in the northeast, and the Awash 
River in the east. 
 
¶5. Preparedness has improved in Ethiopia in several ways, but still 
remains weak.  The flood task force has been operating for the last 
year, and produced an alert on July 2nd based on the impact on 
flood-prone areas of rainfall predictions and levels of water in 
dams.  Despite improved water flow management at dams, they could 
still be overwhelmed by heavy rains. 
 
¶6. The 2006 floods demonstrated the lack of early warning and 
preparedness, leading to the loss of many lives.   A flood early 
warning system has now been put in place in Dire Dawa (where more 
than 300 people died in the 2006 flood) run by local government and 
the military to warn city residents when the water is rising 
upriver.  Similar systems are planned for other areas, but 
remoteness and dispersion of populations will make this difficult to 
implement. 
 
¶7. The USG was praised for the flood response in 2006, albeit 
delayed, which included supplies and erection of a tent city in Dire 
Dawa through DOD/USAID collaboration, and an airlift of needed 
supplies to Gode forQe flood-affected in southern Somali Region. 
This was followed up with NGO partners involved in health, shelter, 
and food support for flood-affected, and the construction of new 
homes for many of the victims in Dire Dawa. 
 
¶8. Needs for the 2006 flood response give a good idea of the 
preparedness needed.  Large tents were much appreciated, and airlift 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00002265  002 OF 002 
 
 
support essential.  In south Omo, the urgent need was for 
boats--preferably, shallow draft large-capacity motorized rubber 
boats--to rescue people trapped on islands by rising flood waters 
and/or to deliver supplies.  The USG was unable to respond to this 
last-minute request in 2006.  In all areas, emergency shelter, 
medical care, and food were all needed for the displaced.   Although 
the response on this was much better, early State-DOD agreements 
could have made the response much quicker and more effective. 
 
-------------------- 
PREPAREDNESS TO DATE 
-------------------- 
 
¶9. The various agencies of the USG in Ethiopia are working on 
preparedness.  Coordination has been occurring with the Ethiopian 
government and other donors through the flood task force. 
 
¶10. USAID has begun to explore access to the needed supplies in a 
timely way: in particular, USAID/OFDA is purchasing motorized rubber 
boats.   CJTF HOA is checking supplies available and preparing for a 
response.  USAID/OFDA'S regional office has engaged quickly to 
determine the availability of needed supplies and has alerted its 
partners operational in high-risk zones to prepare for rapid 
response. 
 
¶11. For south Omo, another complication is ongoing conflict between 
the ethnic groups in the area.  Fear of conflict affected the 
ability of the Desenech people trapped on islands in 2006 to move to 
neighboring areas, and contributed to the loss of life.   USAID 
partner PACT is working on conflict resolution with the Desenech and 
four other ethnic groups in the area, and has agreed to pass on the 
flood warning, as well as work with the affected groups, to prepare 
for movements of people without conflict. 
 
----------- 
CONCLUSIONS 
----------- 
 
¶12. Preparation for likely floods in several parts of Ethiopia are 
only beginning, but indications are that flooding could be imminent 
and very serious.  Coordination with the Government of Ethiopia and 
other donors has been initiated through the flood task force. 
 
¶13. Full cooperation and support is needed for location and 
stockpiling of emergency goods as needed, especially tents and 
motorized rubber boats.  Clearance of these materials to come into 
Ethiopia can be complicated, so these logistics need to be worked 
out as early as possible. 
 
¶14. Existing stocks of food and non-food emergency goods in 
Ethiopia, supported by USAID through the GOE's Disaster Preparedness 
and Prevention Agency (DPPA), will need to be accessed on an 
emergency basis.  There have been some logistical and/or 
bureaucratic problems with accessing the non-food supplies, which 
will need to contended with as much as possible in advance to 
prevent delays. 
 
¶15. USAID NGO partners[0] operational in vulnerable zones need to be 
coordinated and activated to prepare for the response.  This has 
been set in motion. 
 
¶16. Most importantly, pre-aproval by State and DOD for airlift with 
CJTF-HOA assets, as available, would be most useful. 
 
YAMAMOTO