VZCZCXYZ0015
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSO #0504 1621739
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 111739Z JUN 07
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7080
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 8190
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 8132
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2798

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000504 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: EUROPE: G-8 SUMMIT, RUSSIA, CLIMATE CHANGE; WESTERN 
HEMISPHERE: VENEZUELA, CHAVEZ'S REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL 
INFLUENCE; SCO PAULO 
 
¶1. "George and Vladimir" 
 
Liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo (6/10) 
editorialized: "Vladimir Putin and George W. Bush did not solve 
their nations' differences at the G-8 Summit, but succeeded in 
moderating the tone of the rhetoric between Russia and the U.S..... 
Both know that part of Putin's rhetoric is aimed at the Russian 
voters. There will be elections for the Russian parliament in 
December and for president in March.... But not everything is 
electoral fireworks. There are, in addition to the missiles, major 
differences between the two nations. The problem in Kosovo involves 
a strong pan-Slavic appeal. The Russian government resents the poor 
reward it received for the support given to the U.S. following 
September 11, when it offered bases and intelligence services to 
defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan.  Anchored in its economic 
recovery resulting from higher oil prices, Russia wants to resume 
its role of a military power, and does not accept the role of a mere 
supporter of the West.... It is good news for a world that was 
complaining, rightly, about U.S. unilateralism." 
 
¶2. "Climate Chess" 
 
An editorial in liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de 
¶S. Paulo (6/9) remarked: "At first glance, Angela Merkel was 
defeated at the G-8 Summit. The world's richer nations and Russia 
left the meeting without any commitment to the goal of reducing by 
half gas emissions causing the greenhouse effect by 2050, as the 
German prime minister wanted. From such a biased point of view, 
George W. Bush returns to the U.S. as winner.... This is an at least 
partial, if not equivocated, interpretation. To expect Bush to sign 
a declaration accepting the scientific authority of IPCC forecasts 
was something unthinkable a few weeks ago. One can consider timid 
the commitment of 'seriously considering the decisions made by the 
European Union, Canada and Japan, which include cutting at least by 
half the global emissions by 2050.' Certainly, it would be better 
for the world climate if instead of this vague objective the G-8 
adopted mandatory goals. On the other hand, there was fear that the 
U.S. was determined to empty the multilateral meeting on the 
climate. On May 31, Bush had proposed a parallel process with the 
participation of the 15 biggest polluters.... The change in the 
U.S.'s stubborn position may have been minimal, but happened.  As 
much or even more disappointing was the position adopted by the G-8 
and its five emerging invitees. All one can read in their joint 
declaration is an equally vague commitment of 'contributing with our 
just part to face climate change.' Such a goal will no longer be 
achieved without reducing emissions also in these five nations.... 
To be more inclusive, not only G-8 supporters, but the five emerging 
nations will also need to take small steps. One by one, but 
immediately." 
 
¶3. "A Dangerous Partner" 
 
The lead editorial in center-right influential, national circulation 
daily O Estado de S. Paulo (6/11) maintained: "Hugo Chvez's 
distemper has shown once again that it is necessary to think very 
carefully before authorizing Venezuela's membership in Mercosul. It 
is not retaliation, but Brazil must take into consideration its own 
interests and the consequences for Mercosul that the admission to 
the bloc of a partner with enormous potential to create problems 
will have.... The Lula administration may not have taken these 
motives into consideration, but an important portion of the business 
sector has a clear perception of the danger. Mercosul has an 
extremely modest record of bilateral and inter-regional trade 
agreements and it will have to resume important negotiations 
especially if the Doha Round fails.... A new negotiation with the 
U.S. will emerge at any moment.... However, it will be much more 
difficult to adopt more pragmatic policies for Mercosul if the bloc 
has to deal with Hugo Chvez's political ambitions, as well as with 
his view of the Hemisphere.  Mercosul already has excessive 
fractures, and Venezuela's inclusion will only increase its 
fragmentation....  Chvez showed once again that he does not respect 
or plan to respect partners. No one can doubt that he will always 
give less importance to commitments and common interests than to his 
ideological view and power ambitions. Incorporated to the bloc, he 
will be more of a hindrance to strengthening Mercosul as an actor in 
a globalized world and to Brazil's diplomatic action." 
McMullen