VZCZCXYZ0012
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSO #0481 1551338
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 041338Z JUN 07 ZDK
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7040
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 8156
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 8106
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2792

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000481 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: WESTERN HEMISPHERE: VENEZUELA, CLOSING OF RCTV, CHAVEZ'S 
REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCE; SAO PAULO 
 
 
¶1. "Geopolitical Presages" 
 
Editorialist Aldo Pereira remarked in liberal, largest national 
circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo (6/4): "Hugo Chvez bought USD 
4.5 billion in weapons over the past two years.... He has justified 
such spending as a precaution against a possible 'asymmetrical' war 
against the U.S. The U.S. power may be unable to combat insurgencies 
(Vietnam, Iraq, Lebanon, Somalia), but it is lethal in conventional 
war.... A coordinated U.S. action would pulverize the conventional 
equipment and installations of Venezuela in hours. Therefore, the 
naval and aerial military apparatus that Chvez is mounting is aimed 
at rivals of another category, like Colombia, for example. The 
Venezuelan military program is creating in South American 
geopolitics a troublesome, volatile, contradictory and enigmatic 
landscape marked by an already initiated arms race.... Chvez and 
Morales have reached power through constitutional means. But so did 
Hitler. History advises watching carefully the mutual fascination of 
charismatic leaders and their nations. 'Bolivarian' fantasies can 
led to caudillo-type totalitarianism and interventionism in the 
Havana-Caracas-La Paz axis.... Budgetary limitations have forced the 
Brazilian Army to recruit fewer soldiers. There are no resources for 
arms, ammunition and training. How then can we guard the extensive 
borders with Venezuela, Bolivia and other South American nations? 
Or protect interests such as those of the 400,000 Brazilians living 
in the Bolivian region where Chvez has promised to build military 
bases? 'If you wish peace, prepare yourself for war,' Roman 
strategist Flavius Vegetius Renatus wrote in the 4th Century." 
 
¶2. "Nothing Stops Hugo Chvez" 
 
Influential, national circulation daily O Estado de S. Paulo (6/2) 
editorialized: "Nothing seems to diminish Colonel Hugo Chvez's 
furor in his course towards the installation of a declared 
dictatorship in Venezuela.... Chvez is manipulating the 
demonstrations against restrictions to freedom of expression in his 
favor.... But Chvez's rapid march towards an open dictatorship is 
beginning to frighten Venezuelans. Public opinion sectors opposing 
him and his methods, which were silent and tired after two years of 
strikes and street demonstrations, have resumed their activity.... 
University students are leading the protests.... Actions against 
freedom of expression have also mobilized artists and intellectuals 
who had watched the implantation of the '21st Century socialism' 
from a comfortable distance.... Now, even pro-Chvez congressmen 
have protested against the attempts against freedom of 
expression.... Venezuela is a signatory of the OAS Inter American 
Democratic Chart and is also subject to the conditions of Mercosul's 
Democratic Clause.  This makes attacks against democracy in 
Venezuela a problem for all hemispheric nations.  Therefore, the 
nations of the region may act with all legitimacy to diplomatically 
dissuade Colonel Hugo Chvez from completing his totalitarian 
project, and, if they do not succeed, to isolate his regime from the 
hemispheric community." 
McMullen