VZCZCXYZ0027
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHQT #1488 1791424
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 281424Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7314
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6745
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 2599
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUN 0643
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 1752
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 2508
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 001488 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: AMID CALLS TO DISSOLVE CONGRESS, CORREA,S RATINGS 
FALL 
 
REF: A. QUITO 1295 
 
     ¶B. QUITO 1423 
     ¶C. QUITO 1424 
     ¶D. QUITO 1422 
     ¶E. QUITO 1350 
     ¶F. QUITO 1124 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  On June 26 a new 
Cedatos-Gallup poll shows a drop in President Correa's approval rating 
to 62% and a drop in his credibility to 54%. 
These declines come in the midst of increasing political scandal and 
contention.  Recents displays of intolerance and even arrogance by 
Correa, coupled also with his call for the upcoming Constituent 
Assembly to immediately dissolve Congress, have probably also 
contributed to the decline.  Notably, less than 50% of the public now 
expects positive change to result from the Constituent 
Assembly.  End Summary. 
 
POLL RESULTS 
 
¶2. (U) The June 26 Cedatos-Gallup poll shows a continuing 
slide in Correa's approval rating from a high of 76% in 
April to 67% in May (Reftels A and B) and now to 62% in June. 
 Disapproval rating in the same period has almost doubled 
from 17% to 33%.  Credibility fell from an April high of 74% 
to 62% in May and now to 54% in June.  In the Ecuadorian 
context these remain strong numbers, but the negative 
downward trend is notable.  For comparison, Congress 
currently registers a 12% approval rating and 6% credibility 
rating. 
 
HOPES FOR ASSEMBLY EBBING 
 
¶3.  (U) The traditional and seemingly endemic pessimism of 
the Ecuadorian people appears to be chipping away at the once 
high hopes for what the constituent assembly will achieve. 
The poll found very sharply lowered expectations, with just 
31.9% nationwide now believing that the assembly will improve 
the situation of the country.  That number was even higher in 
Guayaquil, where 49.3% answered negatively. 
 
CORREA CALLS FOR DISSOLUTION OF CONGRESS 
 
¶4. (U) On June 23 during his weekly radio address, Correa 
called for the upcoming Constituent Assembly to dissolve 
Congress: "I am becoming more convinced that the assembly 
must dissolve Congress."  He stated that earlier he did not 
think so, but that "the quality" of this Congress had 
changed his mind.  In the last two weeks Congress has vetoed 
or substantially changed several pieces of Correa's proposed 
legislation (Reftels C and D). 
 
CONGRESS REACTS 
 
¶5. (U) Deputies of Congress have reacted angrily to CorreaQ,s 
suggestion.  Two hours of the session on June 25 were spent 
rejecting Correa's declaration.  Carlos Gonz lez of ID 
called on the Attorney General to open an investigation 
against Correa on the ground that his remarks undermine 
political stability, in violation of the current 
constitution.  Other deputies echoed this sentiment, 
including Luis Almeida of PSP.  Only MPD and part of 
Pachakutik refrained from criticizing Correa's statement. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶6. (U) Correa's controversial call for the dissolution of 
Congress comes on the heels of the familiar scandals of the 
press (Reftel F) and Patinovideos (Reftel E).  While his 
credibility is slipping, Correa's approval rating remains 
high going into the assembly election season. 
JEWELL