VZCZCXRO3920
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHPF #0751/01 1550505
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 040505Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8500
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PHNOM PENH 000751 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CB
SUBJECT: PRINCE RANARIDDH:  WILL HE GET AMNESTY AND RETURN 
TO CAMBODIA? 
 
 ¶1.  (SBU)  Summary.  Following a March 13 court verdict 
sentencing Prince Norodom Ranariddh to 18 months in prison, 
the Prince's followers petitioned the King for a royal pardon 
-- even though PM Hun Sen had rejected RGC support for any 
pardon in advance of Ranariddh's trial.  As backroom 
negotiations between Ranariddh's party (NRP), FUNCINPEC, and 
the CPP continued, NRP leaders and NGOs blamed Ranariddh's 
absence for the NRP's poor third-place showing in the April 1 
commune elections.  Meanwhile, FUNCINPEC continues to lose 
supporters and one of its MPs recently defected to the CPP. 
On May 12, a Ranariddh delegation delivered a petition signed 
by over 100,000 people to the Royal Palace, and asked King 
Sihamoni to pardon the Prince.  The King forwarded the 
petition to the Prime Minister for an opinion; to date, none 
has been forthcoming.  End Summary. 
 
Can the Royals Sink Any Lower? 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (U)  Since early 2007, Prince Norodom Ranariddh has 
remained outside of Cambodia for fear of imprisonment 
following the March 13 Phnom Penh Municipal Court ruling that 
found him guilty for a breach of confidence in the sale of 
the historical FUNCINPEC party headquarters in Phnom Penh to 
a developer in exchange for a new property and construction 
of a new building.  The lawsuit that generated the 
controversy was brought by FUNCINPEC Secretary General Nhek 
Bun Chhay following Ranariddh's refusal to accept the loss of 
the party presidency in October 2006 and subsequent launch of 
the Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP), which labeled itself as 
the "real royalist" party.  The sentence of 18 months in 
prison was viewed by many as deliberately timed to prevent 
the NRP leader from competing in the July 2008 national 
elections. 
 
¶3.  (U)  Despite its late entry into the April 1 commune 
elections, the NRP was able to quickly register candidates in 
the majority of Cambodia's 1,600-plus communes, surprising 
most observers.  The NRP did not win any communes outright, 
but did manage to win more seats for its councilors than did 
FUNCINPEC, giving NRP loyalists a minor moral victory by 
coming in (a very distant) third in the commune elections. 
But the NRP's election coffers remain largely empty, royalist 
voters in some cases are still confused about whether or not 
the Prince is still with FUNCINPEC, and the lack of the 
Prince's presence in the country makes the party's job tough 
in the lead up to the July 2008 elections.  Former FUNCINPEC 
MP (and Amcit) You Hockry recently became the NRP's Secretary 
General, having publicly denounced the FUNCINPEC party 
congress last October that removed Ranariddh as the FUNCINPEC 
leader.  Following You Hockry's statements, FUNCINPEC removed 
him from the party and stripped him of his MP status. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Meanwhile, the CPP continues to pressure FUNCINPEC 
officials to defect to the CPP, with FUNCINPEC MP Ly Thuch 
representing the latest defector to the ruling party.  Other 
FUNCINPEC MPs have told us that they have had similar offers 
to leave the party, and one MP predicted there would be 
additional defections before the 2008 elections.  This same 
MP noted he believed that the CPP is going to destroy 
FUNCINPEC before the PM will consider allowing Ranariddh to 
return; that way, the Prince will never be able to rebuild 
the party's structure before the elections should the NRP and 
FUNCINPEC merge again.  FUNCINPEC has held several meetings 
since the April 1 elections, and morale within the party is 
low.  The MP added that he does not bother attending meetings 
anymore because of the poor leadership and lack of direction; 
Keo Puth Rasmei has tried to resign twice but Nhek Bun Chhay 
and the CPP reportedly will not permit it. 
 
¶5.  (U)  Prince Sisowath Thomico, who heads the very small 
and noninfluential Sangkum Cheat Niyum (FSCN) party, merged 
his party with the NRP on May 27 following a FSCN party 
congress.  By joining the NRP, Thomico has become the Vice 
President of the NRP, and has said that he will work towards 
a union of all royalists, followed by an alliance of all 
non-ruling parties to face off against the CPP in July 2008. 
(Comment:  While there have continued to be discussions 
between all the so-called democrats about how best to 
approach the 2008 elections, only Thomico's party has taken 
the decision to merge with another party.  The others (NRP, 
SRP, Kem Sokha) have spoken more in terms of an alliance of 
like-minded parties as opposed to a union into a single 
party.  End Comment.) 
 
¶6.  (U)  FUNCINPEC, however, initially rejected any call to 
reunite the royalist parties under the FUNCINPEC banner. 
While in Malaysia in late April, Ranariddh said that he would 
accept a re-unification of FUNCINPEC and the NRP if FUNCINPEC 
 
PHNOM PENH 00000751  002 OF 003 
 
 
were willing to concede its error in dismissing him from the 
presidency and accept Ranariddh back as the party leader. 
Thomico echoed Ranariddh's position, and at the time 
announced that his small party would begin the process by 
joining with the NRP.  FUNCINPEC initially agreed that 
Ranariddh could return, but only as historical president -- a 
ceremonial title that FUNCINPEC tried to bestow on the Prince 
after he was removed as party leader.  Ranariddh refused the 
honorary position last year and has continued to maintain he 
will not accept it.  However, FUNCINPEC later released a 
statement on May 28 claiming that the party was not 
interested in reconciling with the Prince and would not help 
Ranariddh win a pardon.  (Comment:  According to NRP sources, 
the CPP put a halt to FUNCINPEC negotiations with Ranariddh 
as the ruling party is more concerned with the SRP and the 
CPP does not trust Ranariddh to keep his word and return to 
FUNCINPEC to work on the party's behalf.  In fact, one NRP 
official noted that the CPP's mistrust of Ranariddh was 
well-founded; the NRP leader reportedly did plan to reconcile 
with FUNCINPEC to return to Cambodia, but then planned to 
remove Nhek Bun Chhay and others who been disloyal and lead 
the party down an independent path -- possibly aligning with 
the SRP against the CPP.  End Comment.) 
 
Amnesty for Ranariddh?  1998 All Over Again? 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Despite the public stance of FUNCINPEC claiming 
that reconciliation with the NRP is no longer of interest to 
the party and the CPP's continued rejection of calls for a 
pardon for the Prince, negotiations behind the scenes for 
Ranariddh's return have been ongoing for the last two months, 
claim members of the NRP and FUNCINPEC.  Even SRP MP Keo Remy 
has been acting as a go-between among the various parties to 
help Ranariddh. 
 
¶8.  (U)  On May 12, a delegation of NRP representatives met 
with King Norodom Sihamoni and presented a petition of over 
100,000 thumbprints to the monarch in support of a royal 
pardon for Prince Ranariddh.  The act of presenting the 
petition to the King is viewed as a way of putting the issue 
of a royal pardon firmly on the table for negotiation and 
public discussion.  NRP supporters see a pardon as the only 
way for the Prince to return to Cambodia in time to compete 
for the July 2008 elections.  The King reportedly sent the 
petition to Prime Minister Hun Sen for review, but no 
official response has been forthcoming.  In public comments, 
the PM has indicated that he is unlikely to agree to a pardon 
for the NRP leader and has asked the NRP to continue to 
pursue their case with the Appeals Court.  The PM told a 
university graduation class on May 30 that a petition of 
thumbprints should not override the decision of the judiciary. 
 
¶9.  (U)  The NRP has moved ahead with the appeals court 
process, according to Ok Socheat, a senior advisor to Prince 
Ranariddh.  The PM reportedly has tied a favorable outcome in 
the judicial process to two conditions:  first, the Prince 
must remove NRP spokesperson Muth Chantha and second, the 
Prince must resolve his dispute with Princess Marie.  Muth 
Chantha confirmed to the Embassy that Hun Sen had asked that 
Chantha be removed, claiming that he told Ranariddh he would 
be happy to step down if it helped the party secure 
Ranariddh's return.  There are also discussions about 
Ranariddh ceding a valuable property near the Royal Palace to 
FUNCINPEC as a precondition for his return. 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  Citing the example of 1998, NRP spokesperson Muth 
Chantha told us that the CPP wants Ranariddh to return to 
Cambodia, but only in such a way that it does not 
disadvantage the CPP in the upcoming national election.  The 
NRP official is confident that Ranariddh will return, knowing 
that the international community and NGOs could cite the 
Prince's absence as a reason to discredit the election.  He 
said that the PM also recognizes this, and Hun Sen wants 
Ranariddh to return in time to campaign, but not so soon as 
to do any damage to anyone except the other opposition 
parties.  If Ranariddh were to stay out, many royalists might 
flock to the SRP, which took a respectable and unchallenged 
second place on April 1.  So the CPP will allow Ranariddh 
back -- it's only a question of timing, say NRP loyalists. 
Chantha noted that the CPP successfully kept Ranariddh out of 
Cambodia in the lead up to the 1998 election, only to allow 
the Prince to return for the legitimacy of the electoral 
process, but too late to mount a strong effort.  Chantha 
speculated that the Appeals Court is unlikely to hear the 
case anytime soon, and that the CPP will bide its time.  He 
worries that if the Prince does not return before early 2008, 
there will be inadequate time to organize an effective 
campaign.  But Ranariddh's return 5-6 months ahead of the 
 
PHNOM PENH 00000751  003 OF 003 
 
 
July elections could help split the non-CPP vote, allowed 
Chantha. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  Although there continues to be discussion about 
who must sign off on a royal pardon, from a constitutional 
standpoint, the King does not need to consult with anyone. 
(National Assembly President Heng Samrin recently decided 
that in Ranariddh's case, the National Assembly should come 
to a two-thirds vote -- a clear misread of the constitution.) 
 In practice, the King has not initiated a pardon in any 
high-profile political case without consultation with Hun 
Sen, and he's unlikely to do so this time until the PM gives 
the green light.  It's still early days in the countdown to 
the national election, now scheduled for Sunday, July 27, 
2008 with more twists and turns likely for Ranariddh.  The 
sheer number of meetings and amount of negotiation that have 
taken place already on his case is notable -- we contrast 
those efforts against the paucity of grassroots party 
building activities within FUNCINPEC and the NRP during this 
period.  For the CPP, we agree that it probably makes the 
most sense to keep Ranariddh out of the country (just like 
1998) for as long as possible, and then allow him to return 
for the elections and play the role of spoiler.  We will 
continue to advocate to the RGC that Ranariddh be permitted 
to return and compete in the elections.  End Comment. 
MUSSOMELI