VZCZCXRO5977
PP RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHPOD RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMO #2658/01 1561550
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 051550Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0895
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 002658 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI RS
SUBJECT: SOFT POWER IN ACTION:  MOSCOW PROMOTES RUSSIAN 
LANGUAGE REVIVAL 
 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Summary:  Moscow has ramped up its efforts to 
promote the Russian language in both the former Soviet Union 
and throughout the world.  Observers say the program is aimed 
at using "soft power" to maintain Russia's dominance in its 
neighborhood and underline that Russia remains a great power. 
 At a May 29-30 MFA-hosted conference on the status of the 
Russian language abroad, participants -- including ethnic 
Russians from Moldova and Ukraine -- announced plans to 
appeal to the European Union to protect the rights of Russian 
speakers in member states.  Experts believe the GOR effort 
could cause friction with some of its neighbors, given 
political sensitivities over the use of local languages in 
the post-Soviet space.  Economic and social factors are the 
key elements in promoting and maintaining a language, and the 
GOR's efforts might not be enough, said critics.  At the same 
time, the economic dependence on Russia of many of Moscow's 
neighbors, as well as a significant Russian diaspora, will 
aid Moscow's efforts.  End Summary. 
. 
HIGH LEVEL BOOST 
---------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  With much fanfare and continuing highly visible 
participation by President Putin, Mrs. Putin, First Deputy 
Prime Minister Dmitriy Medvedev and FM Lavrov, the Russian 
government is commemorating 2007 as "The Year of Russian 
Language."  The goal of the program is to promote usage of 
the Russian language in former Soviet republics and 
throughout the world, as a way to foster a positive image of 
Russia abroad and increase Moscow's influence -- particularly 
in neighboring states with significant ethnic Russian 
populations.  Russian literature, poetry, language and 
culture are being promoted through a series of book fairs, 
seminars, poetry readings, and round table discussions.  The 
GOR plans to hold about 900 Russian language-related events 
and projects in 76 countries, in the areas of culture, 
science and education, according to Deputy Foreign Minister 
Aleksandr Yakovenko.  One of the highlights of the year thus 
far was a May 29-30 conference hosted by the MFA on the 
status of the Russian language abroad.  Conference 
participants -- including ethnic Russians from Moldova and 
Ukraine -- announced plans to appeal to the European Union to 
protect the rights of Russian speakers in member states. 
. 
SOFT POWER 
---------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Yuriy Ivanov, Deputy Director for the MFA's 
Department for Compatriots, explained to us that the primary 
focus of the program was on the countries of the former 
Soviet Union, but stressed that events would also take place 
in Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Western Hemisphere.  The MFA 
has the lead in organizing the events, but the Ministry of 
Education will assist by printing and distributing school 
textbooks at Russian educational centers in the former Soviet 
Union.  In addition, the GOR is establishing cultural and 
information centers in many neighboring states.  "One of our 
goals is for Russian to remain the primary language of 
communication in the former Soviet Union," Ivanov said. 
Observers we spoke to characterize this effort as a another 
means to capitalize on the soft power inherent in the 
widespread use of Russian in the former Soviet Union to 
maintain Moscow's influence in the region. 
. 
DECLINE OF THE RUSSIAN LANGUAGE 
------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Moscow's effort to revive Russian language use has 
been driven by concerns about the decline in the number of 
Russian speakers abroad since the collapse of the Soviet 
Union, according to experts.  Former Warsaw Pact countries 
quickly shed Russian language requirements in schools.  Many 
countries in the developing world that once had close ties to 
the Soviet Union no longer encourage Russian language study, 
and the number of foreign students who received scholarships 
to study in Russian universities dropped off precipitously. 
In many former Soviet republics, use of the local language 
was promoted as a symbol of independence and Russian is often 
no longer a state language.  Many of the elites in these 
countries now opt for English as a more useful second 
language for international business and discourse. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Demographics is also a factor in the number of 
Russian speakers worldwide, with about 700,000 Russian 
speakers dying each year.  According to GOR figures, there 
are an estimated 160 million native Russian speakers in the 
world, plus another 125 million who use Russian as a 
secondary language.  For now, Russian is perhaps the fifth 
most spoken language in the world, behind Chinese, English, 
Spanish, and Arabic, according to the MFA's Ivanov, but by 
 
MOSCOW 00002658  002 OF 003 
 
 
2025, it could slip to 10th place.  (Note:  Language rankings 
are notoriously difficult to determine, and other sources 
place the number of Russian speakers behind those of Hindi, 
Portuguese and Bengali, as well, but no source suggests much 
growth in the number of Russian speakers.) 
. 
UNDER ATTACK? 
------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Fears about the declining use of Russian and what 
that represents for Moscow's influence is most acute when the 
GOR looks at Russia's neighborhood.  Aleksandr Chepurin, 
Director of the MFA Department for Compatriots, complained 
publicly that the Russian language was under attack in many 
former Soviet republics.  "The scaling down of the use of 
Russian language in these countries is noted in such fields 
as education, the mass media and records management," 
Chepurin said recently during an ITAR-TASS interview.  Ivanov 
told us that the governments in many of these countries, such 
as Moldova, Latvia and Estonia, actively work to minimize the 
use of Russian language.  The number of schools that conduct 
classes solely in Russian has dropped by 71 percent in 
Turkmenistan, 65 percent in Moldova, 59 percent in Kazakhstan 
and 47 percent in Uzbekistan, said Dmitry Shilankov, Deputy 
Head of the MFA's Russian Center for International Scientific 
and Cultural Cooperation.  One small, but telling example of 
the declining use of Russian that was cited to us was Tajik 
President Rakhmonov's March decision to drop his Russianized 
name and be known henceforth by the Tajik version, Emomalii 
Rakhmon. 
. 
COMPATRIOTS 
----------- 
 
¶7. (SBU)  Given these fears, a key target of the MFA's 
program is the estimated 17 million ethnic Russians living 
outside the Russian Federation in former Soviet republics, 
according to the MFA.  Putin has made it a priority to 
strengthen ties between Russia and its ethnic-Russian 
"compatriots" living in neighboring countries.  In March, the 
first session of the Coordination Council of Russia 
Compatriots was held.  Promoting Russian language was a top 
priority at the session, Shilankov said.  He reflected the 
views of many Russians in seeing the historic spread of 
Russian political power, culture, and the Russian language as 
a positive, "civilizing" influence.  "Of course we don't want 
to force anyone to learn Russian, and we don't want them to 
do it at the expense of their own native languages, but there 
are a lot of ethnic Russians who need our help to maintain 
their identity," he said. 
. 
POLITICAL MOTIVES 
----------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU)  Eduard Ivanyan, of the USA-Canada Institute, told 
us that the GOR's efforts are aimed at more than just 
cultural goals.  "The Kremlin is doing this because they want 
to re-establish political influence in the region," he said. 
Putin sees ethnic-Russians in Ukraine or Kazakhstan as 
potential advocates for Russian policy.  The decline of 
Russian language and culture in the former Soviet Union was a 
wound to Russian prestige.  While the Soviet Government's 
efforts to promote the Russian language varied in intensity, 
there was a long term commitment to establishing Russian as 
the language of government and power.  Now that Russia feels 
that is back on its feet, the GOR wants to rebuild its 
prestige.  Perhaps reflecting Russia's aspirations more than 
present day reality, DFM Yakovenko announced that "the higher 
demand for Russian language as a means of international 
communication has to do with the rising authority of Russia 
as a political, economic and cultural pole in the 
contemporary world." 
. 
POSSIBLE RESISTANCE 
------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU)  The initiative would likely cause suspicion and 
resistance in some neighboring republics, Ivanyan noted. 
Many of Russia's neighbors harbor suspicions toward Russia 
because of its imperial past -- both during Czarist and 
Soviet times.  Promoting Russian language more aggressively 
could be seen by some as undermining national identity, no 
matter how gingerly Russia approaches the project.  "The 
Latvians and Estonians have been working for more than a 
decade to re-establish their languages and redress the 
demographic imbalance that occurred as a result of the Soviet 
occupation,"  he said.  "They will not appreciate efforts to 
undo that."  Confrontation could occur, resulting in a 
deterioration of relations with some neighbors, Ivanyan said. 
 During a recent round table discussion in May, participants 
 
MOSCOW 00002658  003 OF 003 
 
 
discussed efforts to preserve Russian culture and language in 
the mostly Russian-speaking Crimean region of Ukraine. 
During the discussion, Ivan Demidov, head of United Russia's 
youth wing, urged a greater emphasis on street agitation to 
get the message out.  He said his movement had strong 
connections with the pro-Russian Party of Regions in Ukraine, 
and that it would not be difficult to cover Crimea with 
"Let's Support Russian Language" stickers.  Under these 
circumstances, things could get out of hand, Ivanyan said. 
. 
NOT ENOUGH? 
----------- 
 
¶10. (SBU)  Ivanyan said that government efforts to boost the 
Russian language are not enough to ensure success.  The 
collapse of Soviet political power and the resulting decline 
of Russian culture outside of Russia was the result of 
economic and social circumstances that were beyond the 
control of any one government.  "I don't believe in 
campaigns, and this strikes me as a big bureaucratic 
campaign.  It is a Soviet-style approach," Ivanyan said. 
Many Russians living abroad will continue to use Russian as 
their native language.  Continued Russian economic growth, 
and the ability to keep former Soviet republics economically 
reliant on Russia are more important factors, he said.  The 
hundreds of thousands of non-Russians who work in Russia as 
construction laborers or traders promote Russian language far 
more effectively than book fairs and poetry readings, Ivanyan 
added. 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  The MFA's Shilankov argued that the language 
effort would get a boost from Russia's positive economic 
trends and Moscow's greater international prominence. 
"People will see very concrete reasons why it would benefit 
them to learn or maintain Russian."  He pointed to recent 
press reports that Russian language studies have seen an 
increase in Poland.  Poles by and large stopped learning 
Russian after the collapse of communism.  But Russia's 
economic growth and the desire for Western companies to 
invest there have made Russian language skills more important 
in the region, he said.  He said the Russian Cultural Center 
in Warsaw claimed a 35 percent increase in the number of 
Poles enrolling in Russian language classes. 
. 
COMING SOON TO A CULTURAL CENTER NEAR YOU 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU)  Russian officials are also promoting the language 
beyond the neighborhood.  Millions of people speak Russian as 
a first language in Israel and the United States, Ivanov 
said.  Additionally, the GOR plans promotional events in 
countries without a significant ethnic-Russian population, 
such as Indonesia, Mexico and Hungary.  During the Cold War, 
many people throughout the world learned Russian.  For some, 
it was the result of curiosity about the "enemy," Ivanov 
said.  For others, it was because of the Soviet Union's 
strength and influence -- especially in the Third World.  The 
GOR would like to re-establish Russian as a language of 
science and diplomacy, Ivanov said. 
. 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶13. (SBU)  Russia's efforts to re-establish and maintain 
Russian as the lingua franca of the former Soviet Union will 
benefit from its neighbors' strong economic ties to Russia. 
Additionally, Russian ethnic populations abroad have not lost 
their identity, and will continue to speak Russian for the 
foreseeable future, but these are populations in decline. 
The political sensitivity of language and national identity, 
combined with historic mistrust among many of Russia's 
neighbors regarding its motives, will undoubtedly hamper 
Russia's efforts.  In the end, the success or failure of 
efforts to increase the number of Russian speakers will 
depend most on whether neighbors see a practical reason to 
learn or maintain their Russian language skills. 
RUSSELL