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RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPE #2126/01 1701557
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 191557Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5889
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 4769
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 7406
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0474
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUN QUITO 1281
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 1327
RUMIAAA/CDR USCINCSO MIAMI FL

UNCLAS LIMA 002126 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM VE PE
SUBJECT: ANOTHER HUMALA AIMS AT 2011 
 
REF: A. LIMA 1933 
 
     ¶B. LIMA 1841 
     ¶C. LIMA 1608 
     ¶D. LIMA 4698 (03) 
 
-------- 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Antauro Humala, the jailed brother of former 
presidential candidate Ollanta Humala, has formed a political 
party and plans to run for President in 2011, according to 
his advisor Miguel Angel de la Puente.  Antauro hopes to 
become the "outsider" candidate in the style of former 
Presidents Fujimori and Toledo, and plans to expand his 
appeal by moderating his image with bread-and-butter 
proposals for the poor.  While the Venezuelans reportedly 
remain focused on Ollanta Humala, Antauro's movement is the 
one now generating buzz, particularly in impoverished areas. 
The next elections may be four years off, but Antauro's 
family pedigree and long-term strategy make him worth 
watching -- even now.  End Summary. 
 
---------------- 
The Next Humala? 
---------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The torch of family radicalism borne by Ollanta 
Humala in his near-win in Peru's 2006 presidential elections 
is being passed to his younger brother, Antauro, according to 
pro-cocalero Congressional advisor Miguel Angel de la Puente 
(protect).  Particularly if the current government fails to 
deliver on its promises, De la Puente (like other observers) 
believes Antauro could become the next successful "outsider" 
presidential candidate in the style of former presidents 
Fujimori and Toledo, and like his brother Ollanta in 2006. 
De la Puente told us Antauro had tapped him to help draft the 
statutes for Antauro's newly formed political party, the 
United Ethnocacerista Revolutionary Party of Peru (PERU). 
(For details on the Ethnocaceristas' ideas, see Ref D.)  The 
new PERU party is scheduled to hold its founding meeting in 
Cusco on June 22-23. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) In the past, de la Punete has proved to be a source 
of mixed value, reporting some things acurately, but letting 
his personal hopes or views distort somewhat his accounts. 
This time, however, his comments tracked with subsequent 
press reports as well as with the recent reflections of 
pro-Ollanta Congressman Isaac Mekler (Ref C), Humala Clan 
patriarch Isaac Humala (Ref B), missionary Alejandro Cavero 
(who is well connected in Andahuaylas, the site of Antauro's 
former attempted revolt), and from observations made by 
Poloff on a recent trip to Puno (septel).  Both Andahuaylas 
and Puno represent the kind of neglected, southern sierra 
areas that voted overwhelmingly for Ollanta Humala in June 
¶2006. 
 
-------------------- 
Taking the Long View 
-------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) In contrast to Ollanta Humala's quickly slapping 
together a mass movement and immediately aiming for the 
presidency, PERU party followers are looking long-term, and 
intend to use the next four years to train ideologically 
committed Ethnocacerista candidates for Congress.  While they 
would like to see Antauro win the presidency, that is not 
their sole or immediate ambition, according to de la Puente. 
(Antauro was jailed in 2005 for leading an attempted 
insurrection in Andahuaylas in which four policemen were 
killed, but he has not been convicted.  Various sources have 
told us that, if he is not sentenced by a certain date, 
Antauro could be released to house arrest in December under 
Peru's rules for detainees pending trial.)  If Antauro is 
legally disqualified from running, the PERU party will 
nominate an alternate candidate and focus its energies on 
electing a critical mass of congressional representatives 
instead.  In that sense, even if the party fails to win the 
presidency, it intends to build a durable political 
opposition movement from within the system. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Prison as Pulpit/A "New Antauro" 
-------------------------------- 
¶5.  (SBU) De la Puente said that Antauro sees his present 
status as a prisoner awaiting trial as a strategic advantage. 
 While jailed, Antauro has produced numerous articles and at 
least one book, symbolizing his party's discipline, 
unrelenting commitment to its ideals an focus on the 
disenfranchised.  To lay the groundwork for the new PERU 
party, the Ethnocaceristas are taking a number of steps, 
according to de la Puente: 
 
-- They are creating "a new Antauro" who is more moderate and 
committed to democratic elections. 
 
-- During their upcoming founding congress, the PERU Party 
will reach out to other sectors, like street sellers, various 
local and regional "defense fronts" and other representatives 
of the dispossessed in order to broaden his appeal beyond the 
current ideological core. 
 
-- The PERU party plans to offer bread-and-butter proposals 
to win voters, including vouchers for education to enable 
workers to study in the evening; new labor regulations to 
formalize more workers and guarantee them benefits; and state 
programs to create jobs (presumably through public 
investment).  The stated goal of these proposals is to "to 
lift up the Andean and Andean-Mestizo Man." 
 
---------------------------------- 
The Radicals View: GOP Discredited 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) De la Puente claimed that, with Ollanta Humala a 
spent force, Antauro was now well positioned to move into the 
leadership vacuum of the Peruvian left following the APRA 
government's move to the center-right.  Not 
uncharacteristically for an opposition figure, De la Puente 
sees Peru's glass today as half-empty: Congress and the 
political class are sullied by scandals (Ref A), the 
government is not following through with its campaign 
promises, and Garcia's own poll numbers are dropping in spite 
of a year of near-ideal external conditions, including 
relative social peace, a cooperative Congress and a growing 
economy.  (Comment: Other analysts see Peru's glass as more 
than half full under Garcia, and most fall somewhere in 
between the two poles.  End Comment.) 
 
------------------------- 
Caracas Behind the Curve? 
------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The Venezuelans reportedly remain focused on 
Ollanta Humala.  Asked about Venezuelan support for Antauro, 
de la Puente said that Virly Torres, DCM of the Venezuelan 
Embassy, continues to back Ollanta and markets him to 
President Hugo Chavez as Peru,s main opposition figure.  De 
la Puente expects this will change once the Venezuelans see 
that Antauro is the next emerging radical force. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Other sources echo the notion that Antauro's 
profile is rising.  Peruvian Nationalist Party Congressman 
Isaac Mekler told Poloffs recently that Ollanta Humala was 
worried that his brother Antauro's prospective release into 
house arrest could destabilize Peruvian politics and undercut 
Ollanta's efforts to promote his own movement (Ref C).  While 
visiting Puno in early June, Poloff found that Antauro was 
generating a far greater political buzz than Ollanta in that 
region (septel).  Alejandro Cavero, an American missionary 
who has contact with scores of Evangelical Christian pastors 
around Andahuaylas in the department of Apurimac, told Poloff 
recently that Antauro enjoys significant latent popularity in 
that area.  "He could fill the plaza tomorrow, if he visited 
Andahuaylas," Cavero commented. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
Comment: Keeping Antauro Under Observation 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Antauro Humala remains a long way from building a 
system-threatening national organization, the GOP remains 
reasonably strong, and the next national elections are four 
years off.  Nonetheless, recent Peruvian history affords too 
many examples of former fringe, "outsider" candidates who, 
capitalizing on the discontents of the dispossessed, either 
win or almost win the presidency.  Antauro's family pedigree 
in radical politics, his brother's near-win in 2006 with a 
fly-by-night political structure, his solid core of 
Ethnocacerista followers, and his painstaking preparation in 
the context of a calculated long-term strategy make him worth 
keeping under watch -- even now. 
STRUBLE