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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1839

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 HARARE 000504 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR S. HILL 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ZI
SUBJECT: "MAKE A PLAN" MENTALITY CUSHIONS POPULATION, 
REGIME FROM ECONOMIC FREEFALL 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) As their country's economic decline continues to 
gather speed, Zimbabweans of all walks of life have 
increasingly adopted creative coping mechanisms, captured 
succinctly in the phrase "make a plan" that is now on 
everybody's lips.  These plans are innumerable, but they can 
be grouped into three broad categories; belt-tightening, 
income augmentation, and external support.  "Make a plan" 
strategies are perfectly rational short-term responses by 
average Zimbabweans seeking to weather the crisis.  However, 
these strategies are individualist and often distract 
Zimbabweans from efforts to take collective actions to press 
the GOZ to reform.  In fact, "making a plan" provides a 
safety valve that indirectly reduces pressure for the 
necessary reforms that will ultimately turn Zimbabwe's 
economy around.  Zimbabweans' individual coping mechanisms 
may, over time, prove incapable of keeping pace with the 
scale of Zimbabwe's collapse, at which point Zimbabweans may 
have less to lose by abandoning their individual strategies 
in favor of more collective action.  Nonetheless, 
Zimbabweans' ability to &make a plan8 will continue in the 
near term to have the unintended consequences of cushioning 
Robert Mugabe's regime from the full brunt of the economic 
crisis that its policies have created.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Keeping Up Appearances Amid Economic Meltdown 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Confronted by a decade of GOZ economic 
mismanagement that has gnawed away at Zimbabwe's productive 
base, triggered hyperinflation, and left increasing numbers 
of families below the poverty line, Zimbabweans from all 
economic and social corners struggle to maintain the quality 
of life they enjoyed in the 1980s and early 1990s.  The 
struggle to make ends meet is so widespread and persistent 
that Zimbabweans have even coined a phrase for it ) "make a 
plan."  For example, individuals will "make a plan" to find 
scarce sugar or fuel, to scrape together enough money to pay 
for school fees, and ) in the most extreme case ) to 
abandon Zimbabwe altogether in hopes of a better life 
elsewhere.  The phrase dates back to the era of international 
sanctions against Rhodesia, but has taken on new importance 
in the past decade.  Zimbabweans' spirit of ingenuity and 
perseverance has given birth to innumerable coping 
mechanisms, which blossom and wither in line with the GOZ's 
erratic policies.  In consultation with local academics, we 
have grouped the types of coping strategies used in Zimbabwe 
into three broad categories; belt-tightening, income 
augmentation, and external support. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) These strategies are nearly universal in Zimbabwe, 
but are most pronounced in urban areas, where denser 
populations and higher levels of general economic activity 
make them more effective.  Additionally, rural areas ) 
especially the traditional and overpopulated communal lands 
) had to a large extent been outside Zimbabwe's economic 
boom of decades past.  Instead, occupants of these areas live 
a largely subsistence and cashless lifestyle ) the main 
exception being cotton production, which annually floods some 
communal lands with cash that is quickly spent before it 
loses its value.  A form of coping itself, subsistence 
farming has made the rural areas somewhat more immune to the 
 
HARARE 00000504  002 OF 006 
 
 
economic decline than the urban areas.  For instance, in 
economies built on barter ) such as in the communal areas - 
hyperinflation is less of a problem since the relative prices 
of the goods to be exchanged tend to rise in near lockstep. 
 
---------------------------- 
Cutting to the Economic Bone 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) In a rational response to financial stress, 
Zimbabweans have looked hard at their spending patterns and 
begun to prioritize expenditures, saving for those deemed 
vital, substituting for necessities, and sacrificing the 
expendable.  For white-collar Zimbabweans in the private 
sector, these sacrifices are somewhat superficial and 
primarily center on foregoing foreign vacations and 
entertaining less; for instance, party invitations asking 
guests to bring their own food as well as drinks have become 
common.  While the children of white-collar parents still 
largely pursue higher education abroad, they are increasingly 
forgoing European schools in favor of the closer and more 
affordable South Africa universities. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) At the other end of the economic scale, sacrifices 
become more serious and often entail cutbacks on basic 
expenditures such as food, education, and hospital care. 
Even many middle-income Zimbabweans make due on two meals a 
day or less of low-quality maize-meal porridge, often with 
only "green meat" ) i.e., vegetables.  Euphemistically 
referring to consumers buying less meat, a recent report by 
the GOZ taskforce on reviving agriculture noted that 
"consumer resistance on meat products is now evident."  As 
the market for meat has dwindled, the demand for cheaper 
sources of protein, primarily the sardine-like fish kapenta 
harvested from Lake Kariba, has ballooned. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The process of belt-tightening is in many ways a 
new experience for many Zimbabweans, who up to a decade ago 
enjoyed a relatively affluent way of life.  Zimbabweans of 
all economic classes often remark that they are now employing 
belt-tightening strategies that were once unthinkable; for 
example, a mining executive recently remarked to econoff that 
the trade in second-hand clothing, once unthinkable to proud 
Zimbabweans who turned their noses to the common African 
practice, was now booming. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Marketing data supplied to us by retail companies 
clearly show consumers changing their spending patterns to 
cope with dwindling real paychecks.  Zimbabwean spirits 
manufacturer African Distillers told us that consumers over 
the past several years had moved away from premium brands of 
cane spirit ) a rum-like alcohol popular among lower-income 
groups ) to more affordable brands.  In fact, the distiller 
noted that since 2004 six new budget brands of cane spirits 
had hit the market.  The shifting consumption pattern had 
badly damaged the company's premium brand which in 2002 
captured 77 percent of the market, but only 22 percent in 
2006-2007. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Boosting Incomes ) By Whatever Means 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Failing to make ends meet even after trimming 
expenditures, many Zimbabweans have found second jobs or ) 
more common ) developed informal income-generating schemes 
 
HARARE 00000504  003 OF 006 
 
 
to cover their shortfalls.  The decline of formal sector 
economic output has created a glut of labor capacity, often 
freeing workers to pursue their own private enterprises while 
still working for their regular employers.  For example, one 
of our legal contacts told us that a judge recently halted 
trial proceedings so that he could negotiate the sale of 
chickens over his mobile phone.  Meanwhile, those without 
formal sector jobs have been largely absorbed into the 
informal economy, which continues to be comparatively robust. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Many of these income generating schemes are benign, 
but University of Zimbabwe (UZ) political studies chairman 
Eldred Masunungure warned poloff that others are more harmful 
in both the near and longer term.  Some these schemes hinge 
on theft, especially petty crimes, such as office workers 
gradually stealing and selling supplies purchased by their 
employers.  These practices result in loss of income to the 
employer and loss of productivity to the company.  Such 
coping strategies have in many ways made everyday living a 
criminal act, putting Zimbabweans on a slippery slope of 
lawlessness, according to Masunungure. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) In the longer term, Masunungure cautioned that 
such "acceptable" theft and corruption can lead to the decay 
of Zimbabwe's morals and social cohesion, which ultimately 
would make economic revival all the more difficult. 
Zimbabwe's youths were especially prone to seeking short-term 
economic gratification and get-rich-quick schemes.  As an 
example, Masunungure noted that more and more students were 
leaving the University believing that education was no longer 
the means to upward economic mobility, a major social shift 
in Zimbabwe where education historically has been greatly 
valued. 
 
-------------------------- 
Cushioned By Globalization 
-------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Zimbabweans have also leveraged their country's 
regional location and international ties to weather the 
current economic downturn.  As an indication of their extreme 
desperation, an estimated quarter or more of Zimbabwe's 12 
million people have left the country and, according to a 2005 
survey by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), 
half of them for economic reasons.  Suggesting that this flow 
has increased in recent years, IOM data show that South 
African authorities currently deport about 15,000 illegal 
Zimbabweans each month, up from about 4,000 per month in 
¶2004. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Research by University of Zimbabwe professor Lloyd 
Sachikonye indicates that remittances of both money and goods 
from the diaspora to family members still in Zimbabwe is a 
vital coping strategy for at least half of the population. 
Sachikonye told poloff that emigration is a rational response 
to the economic crisis and that families often elect to send 
an adult-aged son or daughter into the diaspora ) many times 
on a rotating basis ) as a means of financial and material 
support.  Hinting at the scale of these inflows, Zimbabwe's 
largest Western Union affiliate told us that it disbursed 
about US$5 million in the first quarter of this year, with an 
average transaction of about US$300. (Note.  We understand 
that first quarter inflows are typically lower than other 
times of the year, as remittances usually peak ahead of 
Christmas.  Additionally, Western Union figures do not 
capture remittances carried by returning or visiting members 
 
HARARE 00000504  004 OF 006 
 
 
of the diaspora, which are probably substantial due to the 
GOZ's erratic and unpredictable regulation of money transfer 
agencies.  End note.)  Additionally, several internet 
companies allow diaspora members to purchase groceries, fuel, 
and other consumer goods that are then accessible by vouchers 
to family members in Zimbabwe. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Zimbabwe's proximity to South Africa and other 
neighboring countries with growing retail bases offers 
Zimbabweans the opportunity to make short excursions abroad 
to buy needed consumer goods for personal use or resale in 
Zimbabwe.  The cross-border trade in basic consumer goods has 
boomed in near lockstep with declining production in 
Zimbabwe.  While lower-income Zimbabweans are observed in the 
hundreds crossing Zimbabwe's borders daily loaded with 
consumer goods, even middle and upper-class Zimbabweans make 
the sojourn to shopping "meccas" within easy driving distance 
of the border, such as Francistown (Botswana), Lusaka 
(Zambia), Chimoio (Mozambique), and Louis Trichardt and 
Polokwane (South Africa).  Poloff, who first made the 
shopping trek to Polokwane in January 2006, noted on his most 
recent trip in April 2007 the proliferation of grocery and 
automotive parts stores and Zimbabwe-registered vehicles 
along the route. 
 
------------------------------ 
Coping Mechanisms Buttress GOZ 
------------------------------ 
 
¶14.  (SBU) UZ professors Masunungure and Sachikonye 
separately agreed with poloff's assertion that these "make a 
plan" strategies were individualist responses to the on-going 
crisis.  When faced with massive economic upheaval and the 
breakdown of traditional communal supports, Zimbabweans 
employ these strategies to create their own safety nets and 
to ensure their near-term survival.  However, the two 
professors also agreed that, while perfectly rational, these 
individual responses make Zimbabwean culture more atomistic 
and come at the expense of collective action, such as mass 
protests, which in the longer-term would stand a better 
chance to push for reform and ensure an economic rebound. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) By creating a safety net that cushions Zimbabweans 
from the brunt of the economic downturn, "make a plan" 
strategies indirectly mitigate the pressure on the GOZ to 
reform.  Pointing to many of his former students, Masunungure 
noted that the highly-motivated individuals who have since 
left Zimbabwe for higher paychecks elsewhere would otherwise 
be the ones most likely to agitate for political change.  Of 
those remaining, Sachikonye asked how an individual who 
spends 95 percent of his time fending for himself could even 
contemplate joining a mass struggle ) especially an 
opposition movement that does not directly focus on bread and 
butter issues.  The middle class ) which in other countries 
had often been the driving force for democratization ) has 
all but disappeared, and the remaining vestiges are largely 
co-opted by the regime or focused on "make a plan" 
strategies.  In contrast to Bob Marley's mantra, Masunungure 
agreed with poloff that ) at least in Zimbabwe - a hungry 
man was a docile man, not an angry man. 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Masunungure said the GOZ, while aggressively 
clamping down on the political sphere, has cleverly allowed 
most economic activity to continue unabated, which encouraged 
these coping strategies to flourish.  The only exception to 
the hands-off economic policy occurred when political 
 
HARARE 00000504  005 OF 006 
 
 
interests trumped the economic, such as the invasion of 
white-owned commercial farms and the unleashing of Operation 
Restore Order as a way to punish urban opposition supporters, 
according to Masunungure.  The GOZ has also found ways to 
exploit these coping strategies, primarily by allowing 
remittances to flow which the GOZ then buys on the parallel 
market, as a means to augment its patronage network. 
 
¶17.  (SBU) Masunungure agreed with poloff's observation that 
-whether intentional or not - the GOZ-induced economic 
meltdown has paradoxically solidified the ruling party's 
control at least in the near term.  By destroying, 
distracting, and co-opting the private sector, the ruling 
party has reinforced the loyalty of members otherwise 
inclined the leave the party.  Would-be detractors are faced 
with the choice of remaining in the party or struggle 
financially due to their loss of patronage and inability to 
find meaningful private sector employment.  Confirming this 
view, ZANU-PF MP and businessman David Butau told poloff that 
the only way to safeguard his budding business empire was to 
suck up to the ruling party.  Although the resources that 
ZANU-PF distributes as perquisites have dwindled, Masunungure 
noted that patronage is surprisingly resilient and that 
intangibles, chiefly a license to loot, were perhaps more 
important than farms or other assets. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶18.  (SBU) As ex-Information Minister Jonathan Moyo once 
creatively commented, the GOZ has normalized the abnormal. 
Shortages or the outright disappearance of basic commodities 
have now become the norm, even a source of jokes, and as a 
result most Zimbabweans no longer question these 
abnormalities.  The GOZ-orchestrated economic decline has 
transformed a once-sophisticated economy into a more 
rudimentary, barter-based economy in which savvy or 
well-connected Zimbabweans either get out or get rich 
quickly, while the vast majority desperately attempt to tread 
water.  While there does not appear to be a "tipping point" 
at which the economy "collapses" or stops completely, 
Zimbabwe appears to have crossed a milestone at which the 
informal economy has become more important to most 
Zimbabweans than the formal economy, with all the lost tax 
revenue, oversight, and respect for the rule of law that 
comes with such a transition. 
 
¶19.  (SBU) The ascendancy of the informal economy and the 
corresponding rise of individual coping mechanisms has 
cushioned the GOZ from the full brunt of its own economic 
mismanagement, as "make a plan" strategies have deflected 
Zimbabweans' energies away from more collective, mass efforts 
to bring about lasting economic and political reform.  At the 
same time, however, even the Zimbabwean gift for "making a 
plan" may not keep pace with the scope of the country's 
economic and infrastructural decay.  A day may come when 
Zimbabweans may have less to lose by abandoning their 
individual coping strategies in favor of greater collective 
action.  Nonetheless, the perseverance of these coping 
strategies suggests that ZANU-PF is not at imminent risk of 
losing its hold on power as the energies of an otherwise 
restless population continue to be targeted toward basic 
survival.  All the while, Zimbabwe edges closer to the 
unfortunate African economic mean of simply tottering along. 
While perhaps the majority of Zimbabweans are not ZANU-PF 
 
HARARE 00000504  006 OF 006 
 
 
supporters, the economic implosion has forced average 
Zimbabweans to become indirect supporters of the system that 
keeps ZANU-PF in power. 
 
¶20.  (SBU) The above analysis is not meant to imply that 
ZANU-PF is prospering; as the economy continues to crumble, 
so too are its sources of regime-saving patronage.  As with 
the general populous, ZANU-PF also engages in coping 
mechanism to survive.  While these coping mechanisms ) such 
as printing money and seizing productive assets ) work for 
the moment, these strategies are also pushing Zimbabwe's 
economy toward the inevitable day of reckoning.  We will 
address more fully the GOZ's short-sighted coping strategies 
and their likely outcome septel. 
DELL