VZCZCXYZ0015
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHGT #1259/01 1772126
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 262126Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY GUATEMALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3096
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 4376
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 001259 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV EAID KDEM PHUM SOCI ECON GT
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL FRONT-RUNNER COLOM PRESENTS PLAN OF 
GOVERNMENT 
 
REF: A. GUATEMALA 1135 
 
     ¶B. GUATEMALA 1057 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  Presidential front-runner Alvaro Colom 
presented his plan for governing the country if elected.  The 
plan, which represents the culmination of six years of work 
and the participation of all levels of government and sectors 
of society, is based on four strategic elements -- 
solidarity, governability, productivity, and regionalism. 
Colom outlined specific indicators in each of these areas, 
promising measurable results in health, education, security, 
economy, environment, and energy over the next four years to 
improve the quality of life and to reduce poverty.  He 
envisioned a Guatemala that is democratic, free, prosperous, 
and multi-cultural and stressed the need for long-term 
planning and coordination for Guatemala to reach its full 
potential.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Presidential candidate Alvaro Colom, who currently 
leads in the polls, presented his "Plan of Government" June 
20 to a packed audience of about 1,000, which included 
members of Congress, members of the press and diplomatic 
corps, and representatives of political parties and 
international organizations.  UNE Director of Strategy Jose 
Carlos Marroquin, who opened the presentation, described the 
Plan as "dynamic, long-term, and transformational," and the 
result of six years of coordination among all sectors of 
society, including the participation of 550 professionals, 
and consensus at the municipal, departmental, regional, and 
national levels. 
 
¶3. (U) Colom's running mate Rafael Espada, who lamented 
popular dissatisfaction with their elected leaders, asserted 
that all Guatemalans have a "moral obligation" to change the 
situation.  He stressed the need to create a climate of 
confidence and trust, and promised an end to disorder, 
injustice, corruption, and insecurity to transform Guatemala 
into a respectable and productive country.  Marroquin 
declared that the Plan of Government, which aims to combat 
unemployment, poverty, and insecurity, and promote 
prosperity, harmony, and tranquillity, is a "plan of hope" 
for everyone, not only for the privileged. 
 
¶4. (U) Colom, who underscored the need for change, described 
the plan as his commitment to fulfill his campaign promises. 
He promised to increase social investment, improve the 
quality of life, and reduce poverty.  The plan includes goals 
for social and economic development, security, and 
modernization of the agricultural sector.  In outlining the 
plan's four pillars -- solidarity, governability, 
productivity, and regionalism -- Colom noted that Guatemala 
needs to strengthen social development through reduction of 
poverty; better access to health, education, and housing; and 
social protection.  He also proposed the creation of a 
Ministry of the Family; improvement in basic infrastructure 
to the more vulnerable sectors of the population; and greater 
respect for multi-culturalism and ethnicity. 
 
¶5. (U) In the area of governability, he proposed establishing 
a nationwide system of community-based security with the 
participation of all sectors of society.  He also proposed 
implementation of popular election of National Civilian 
Police chiefs in each municipality.  In the area of 
productivity, he emphasized the need to attract foreign 
investment and to increase national investment, propose a 
modern law to govern "zonas francas," and create a market 
intelligence unit to seek business opportunities.  He also 
emphasized the need to improve physical infrastructure, risk 
management and attention to natural disasters, and to adjust 
the minimum salary each year in accordance with the inflation 
level.  On regionalism, he focused on the need to strengthen 
Guatemala's leadership in Central America.  He noted that 
Guatemala retains its leadership in the Central American 
market, with one-third of the regional GDP, but warned that 
Costa Rica is not far behind.  He pledged to improve 
implementation of CAFTA and competitiveness in the European 
and Asian markets, and to address the needs of Guatemalan 
immigrants in the U.S. 
 
¶6. (U) Among specific targets for 2011, Colom pledged an 
increase in economic growth from 5.2 percent of GDP to 6.3 
percent, a decrease in inflation from 5.7 percent to 3 
percent, a decrease in fiscal deficit from 1.9 percent of GDP 
to 1 percent, and the creation of 703,000 jobs.  In the area 
of security, he pledged an increase in the annual budget from 
1.20 percent of GDP to 2.60 percent, a decrease in the number 
 
of murders of men per day from 16.1 to 3, a decrease in the 
number of murders of women per day from 2 to 1, a decrease in 
the number of assaults on public transport per day from 240 
to 50, and a decrease in the number of kidnappings per month 
from 5 to 1.  He proposed increasing the National Civil 
Police by 20,000 additional personnel and professionalizing 
the force.  He also proposed creating special civil security 
forces to combat gangs.  In the area of education, he 
promised to increase the annual budget from 2.60 percent of 
GDP to 3.90 percent by 2011, and to increase the percentage 
of primary school-aged children in school from 87.48 percent 
to 89.48 percent.  He also promised to reduce the rate of 
poverty from 56 percent to 41 percent and the rate of extreme 
poverty from 16 percent of the population to 10.50 percent by 
¶2011. 
 
¶7. (U) Colom characterized his plan as realistic, flexible, 
goal-oriented, and long-term with intermediate goals, and 
invited the public to discuss it and to suggest changes.  The 
plan has already undergone several changes since the initial 
draft in 2002, reflecting the changing needs of the 
population. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment:  Colom comes across to voters as earnest in 
his commitment to create a more prosperous, stable Guatemala, 
though there is a growing cynicism about the pledges of 
would-be presidents.  He proposes to do in four years what 
previous governments have failed to accomplish since the 
signing of the Peace Accords in 1996, and there is no 
indication that current conditions are more conducive to 
success than in previous administrations.  Colom did not 
explain how he would increase social spending and double 
security spending, while also cutting the fiscal deficit in 
half.  But with every candidate promising transformational 
change, Colom's vision is in line with his competitors.  He 
has more credibility on his social sector promises and less 
on security than Perez Molina. 
Derham