VZCZCXRO5751
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHFT #3022/01 1770812
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 260812Z JUN 07
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2125
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 003022 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR TBIO GM
SUBJECT: Hesse State Election Preview: SPD Gaining Ground? 
 
REF: 06 Frankfurt 8092 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY.  Six months before Hesse state elections (January 
2008), both major parties have presented their economic programs. 
Following an ambitious program from Social Democratic challenger 
Andrea Ypsilanti, Hesse Minister President Koch has presented a 
slightly populist program which is light on reforms.  Enjoying a 
surprising bounce in polls, the SPD has forced Koch to react on 
topics that are not traditional CDU strengths: renewable energy and 
climate change.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Ypsilanti 2008: Renewable Energy and Climate Change 
 
¶2.  In the SPD plan revealed in early 2007, Hesse would move quickly 
away from nuclear and non-renewable energy.  It would become 
independent from nuclear energy by 2013, the year the nuclear power 
plant Biblis B in South Hesse is slated for decommissioning.  At the 
same time, Hesse would lower its usage of coal, gas and oil, instead 
relying on renewable sources of energy, including wind turbines, 
solar cells, and water.  According to the SPD, renewable energy 
sources would create new job opportunities in rural northern Hesse. 
Ypsilanti's opponents have characterized her program as unaffordable 
and unrealistic. 
 
Koch 2008: Airport Expansion and Government Spending 
 
¶3.  In early June, Hesse Minister President Roland Koch outlined his 
proposed economic agenda for a third term.  He would hire more 
teachers and policemen and abolish fees for kindergarten; he would 
achieve a balanced budget by 2010; and he would further develop the 
state's infrastructure.  One of the key planks on the latter point 
is construction of an additional runway for Frankfurt airport.  Koch 
argues that the enlargement of the airport is only possible with a 
CDU government in Hesse.  Popular belief is that the Greens would 
block the project in a red-green government (the most likely left 
coalition), even though Ypsilanti also supports airport expansion. 
Green Party Chairman for Hesse Kai Klose recently told Pol/Econ 
specialist that the party would have to accept airport expansion in 
the event of a coalition with the SPD, however, he mused that it 
would be politically expedient if it were enacted under the current 
administration, thus absolving the Greens of responsibility. 
 
¶4.  If re-elected, Koch would support the development of alternate 
energy sources, including nuclear energy.  He has not yet explained 
how he would pursue this policy without violating federal law 
requiring a phase out of nuclear energy by 2020. 90% of the state's 
energy sources now are nuclear or coal-burning power plants and CDU 
officials predict Hesse will need nuclear power to ensure its energy 
supply for at least the next 50 years.  Koch pledges to ensure 
affordable energy for Hesse, describing the SPD's "utopian" energy 
policies as leading to higher prices. 
 
Unexpected Challenge for Koch 
 
¶5.  Though Koch is considered the stronger politician when it comes 
to economic policy, a recent study by two research institutes 
(Initiative Neue Soziale Marktwirtschaft and Institut der deutschen 
Wirtschaft) and the weekly magazine Wirtschaftswoche revealed that 
Hesse ranks fifteenth in economic dynamism among German states, 
ahead of only Brandenburg.  The state of Hesse does not invest 
enough in science, there are fewer applications for patents, and 
unemployment has grown 1% in the last year compared to a national 
rate of 0.2%.  Balancing these findings is the indisputable fact 
that Hesse is still the most productive state in Germany: its GDP is 
Euro 33,614 per capita (average: 25,082) and labor productivity is 
the highest in Germany.  Koch ignores the study claiming that Hesse 
remains the most dynamic state in Germany, but he must make his 
claims credible to voters on the campaign trail to score points on 
the economic issue. 
 
Unexpected Openings for Ypsilanti 
 
¶6.  Though it is still early in the campaign, polls indicate a 
tightening race.  After the SPD state party convention in December 
2006, the SPD polled 27%, far below the Hesse CDU at 43%.  At that 
time, the Hesse CDU felt confident of victory, due to the fact that 
Roland Koch is an established, eloquent and successful minister 
president.  However, by making energy her central topic and 
addressing climate change, Ypsilanti has found a weak spot in Roland 
Koch's armor.  In a late May poll, the CDU polled %40, SPD 34%, 
Greens 11% and FDP 9%, giving a potential SPD/Green coalition 45% 
and a CDU/FDP coalition 49%. 
 
Conclusion 
 
¶7.  As surprising as it is that Andrea Ypsilanti could gain ground 
on Roland Koch in a conservative stronghold like Hesse, the bigger 
surprise is that she appears to be making inroads in an area that 
has been his strong point - economic policy.  Should the energy 
theme prove a winner in Hesse, it may also become attractive for the 
national SPD.  After eight years of Koch in power (the last four 
 
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without a coalition partner), the electorate may be tiring of the 
current government; both the Green party and the Hesse SPD are 
campaigning with the slogan: "Koch muss weg" (Koch must go). 
 
¶8.  This cable has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
 
POWELL