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ZNR UUUUU ZZH
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FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0358
INFO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 2112
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RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 2146
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1454
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1972
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 2072

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000801 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ENRG SENV TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN'S LAKE SAREZ- IS HYDROPOWER THE ANSWER? 
 
 
DUSHANBE 00000801  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  Ten years after the First International Conference on Lake 
Sarez Problems in 1997, the United Nations International 
Strategy for Disaster Reduction (Central Asia Office) and the 
Government of Tajikistan's Committee on Emergencies and Civil 
Defense conducted the Second International Conference on Lake 
Sarez Problems May 22-23.   Conference participants recommended 
three steps in order to mitigate a disaster at Lake Sarez 
including:  1) conduct a feasibility study for construction of a 
downstream hydropower station;  2) lower the lake's water level 
through hydropower development; 3) conduct an assessment of dam 
safety in Tajikistan with the aim of implementing monitoring and 
early warning systems throughout the country.  Participants 
included Tajik geologists and seismologists and a panel of 
experts from Germany, Norway and the international donor 
community, most notably the World Bank, a supporter of Lake 
Sarez projects.  The panel supported the conference's 
recommendations. 
 
¶2.  Scientists continue to warn against the dangers of Lake 
Sarez, created after a powerful earthquake in 1911.  Researchers 
believe that the Usoy Dam, formed during the earthquake, is 
eroding away and another large earthquake could mean its 
destruction.  Some geologists predict that the next big 
earthquake in this seismically active region could occur soon, 
100 years after the last big one.  If the dam breaks, the lake's 
water would flood downstream, causing massive damage to villages 
and agriculture and endangering lives.  The devastation could 
reach all the way to communities in Uzbekistan.  USAID and other 
international donors have funded research and implemented early 
warning systems for communities that would be first affected by 
potential flooding.  Government officials and the panel of 
experts praised the early warning system and are confident that 
it will help save lives, should a disaster occur. 
 
¶3.  PolOff met with Goulsara Pulatova June 1 to discuss 
conference participants' recommendations.  Pulatova, a senior 
advisor at the United Nations International Strategy for 
Disaster Reduction, pointed out that Tajik President Rahmon is 
keen to develop Lake Sarez's hydropower potential and is giving 
it high priority.  Two to three weeks before the conference, 
Rahmon delivered a public speech calling for solutions to 
mitigate a potential disaster at Lake Sarez, one idea being to 
build a pipeline from Lake Sarez to Iran to supply its people 
with pure drinking water.  (Comment: We hope someone will advise 
Rahmon that this idea is a bit of a stretch. End Comment.) 
 
¶4.  Scientists working with the Lake Sarez Risk Mitigation 
Project, supported by the World Bank, warn that before 
Tajikistan begins constructing hydropower stations on the Pyanj 
River, the government needs to ensure the Usoy Dam is stable. 
If the Usoy Dam containing Lake Sarez breaks and the river 
floods, downstream hydropower stations may suffer damage. 
Conference presenters advocated for additional research into the 
ever-changing geology of the lake.  In the past two years, the 
water level has increased at an unprecedented rate and new holes 
in the dam have appeared.   The water level of the dam could be 
lowered 100 meters by constructing a tunnel from the north bank 
of the lake.  This would then allow for the construction of a 
250-megwatt hydropower plant on the Murghab River. 
 
¶5.  Developing Tajikistan's hydropower potential has long topped 
Rahmon's agenda and the panel of experts support for the 
conference's recommendations adds fuel to his fire.  The panel 
of experts estimated the feasibility study for this particular 
hydropower station would cost around $3 million and the station 
itself $120 million. (Comment: Considering that the costs for 
the similarly-sized Sangtuda--II hydropower station, located in 
a more accessible area are already $256 million, this figure 
appears unrealistically low. End Comment.)  Pulatova said that 
the government is considering a loan for the project. She was 
optimistic the World Bank would be able to resolve the problem. 
 
¶6.  COMMENT:   Helping to resolve the Lake Sarez threat could 
save lives and property, and we will continue to engage the 
Tajik government on practical, disaster-mitigating solutions. 
However, developing a hydropower station to use run-off from 
Lake Sarez may be several years down the road.  Constructing a 
250-megawatt power station where there are few roads and far 
from transmission lines would not draw in the private financing 
required for such an investment, and the World Bank would not be 
able to shoulder all the costs.  Post will continue monitoring 
developments and report any concrete proposals or calls for 
funding from the government or other actors in order to identify 
 
DUSHANBE 00000801  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
potential opportunities of cooperation.  END COMMENT. 
JACOBSON