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DE RUEHBU #1244/01 1772028
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 262028Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8512
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 6275
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6140
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1314
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RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0507
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
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RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001244 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AR ECON
SUBJECT:  ARGENTINA: AMBASSADOR WAYNE'S JUNE 25 MEETING WITH FORMER 
PRESIDENT ALFONSIN 
 
REF: BUENOS AIRES 01240 
 
¶1.  (SBU)   SUMMARY:   On June 25, Ambassador Wayne called on former 

President Raul Alfonsin to discuss Alfonsin's views on the current 

political panorama in Argentina.  Alfonsin frankly shared his view 

that current economic policies are not sustainable and that 

Argentina is likely to see economic problems in 2009.  He was 

critical of the Kirchner administration for fostering weak 

institutions, no separation of powers, and for violating the 

'coparticipation' (federal-provincial revenue sharing) principles. 

In the end, however, he said that he remains an optimist and chooses 

to focus on the progress that Argentina has made to date.  END 

SUMMARY. 

 

----------------------- 

Economic Stability 

----------------------- 

 

¶2.  (SBU)  On June 25, Ambassador Wayne called on former President 

Raul Alfonsin to discuss Alfonsin's views on the current political 

panorama in Argentina.  Alfonsin frankly shared his view that 

current economic policies are not sustainable for more than the next 

18 to 24 months and that Argentina is likely to see economic 

problems in 2009 without significant policy shifts.  He said that 

Kirchner's lack of an energy policy would create significant 

problems.  He said that he would have worked harder to expand the 

gas pipelines from Bolivia to ensure a more regular and sufficient 

supply of gas in Argentina.  He mentioned that he understands 

Bolivian President Evo Morales's decision to raise the price of gas 

for exports to Argentina, which then makes one wonder why gas prices 

shouldn't increase in Argentina to help increase supply.  Alfonsin 

made a point to explain that although he does not see Morales as a 

threat, he is against Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's energy 

policies and his broader approach. 

 

¶3.  (SBU)  Alfonsin said he believes the current level of GDP growth 

is unsustainable.  He said that Argentina has been lucky that 

international markets like in China and in India have been strong 

and have added to Argentina's growth.  He said he has several 

economist friends who do not believe that Argentina will face an 

economic crisis in 2008, but see it as more likely in 2009. 

Alfonsin said that the stability of international markets are key to 

maintaining growth, but if China or India were to suffer a downturn, 

Argentina could see a crisis sooner. 

 

--------------------------------------------- ----- 

Criticisms of the Kirchner Administration 

--------------------------------------------- ----- 

 

¶4.  (SBU)  Alfonsin was critical of the Kirchner administration for 

fostering weak institutions, no separation of powers, and for 

violating the 'coparticipation' (federal-provincial revenue sharing) 

principles.  He said that President Kirchner has ""authoritarian 

leanings"" and has eroded the separation of powers in the government. 

 While he thought that Kirchner's appointment of new Supreme Court 

Justices was positive, Alfonsin said the changes to the Council of 

Magistrates' composition gives the executive branch too much power 

to veto dissenting judges. (NOTE:  The Council of Magistrates is the 

body that oversees the nomination, review, and discipline of judges. 

 END NOTE.) 

 

¶5.  (SBU)  Alfonsin said that federalism in Argentina is just a 

""shell.""  He said that Kirchner's use of discretionary funds to 

'bribe, extort, and trick' opposition politicians to support him is 

destroying political parties in Argentina.  He said that Kirchner 

wants to be the sole representative of the center-left against 

Buenos Aires Mayor-elect Mauricio Macri as the center-right leader. 

Alfonsin said that he believes Kirchner is not really a center-left 

politician, but rather a populist.  The former president said he 

feared that Kirchner was trying to take the Radical Civic Union 

party's center-left role, but he doubted that Kirchner would 

succeed. 

 

¶6.  (SBU)  Alfonsin said he thought the destruction of the political 

party system could lead to an anarchic situation in which strong 

provincial leaders (caudillos) could create their own fiefdoms.  He 

lamented the lack of dialogue with the current administration and 

said he thought that the only way to strengthen institutions and 

lessen the power of the president would be through the ballot box. 

He said, for instance, that in the Buenos Aires June 24 mayoral 

election the people's desire for political change (represented by 

Mauricio Macri) outweighed their satisfaction with continued 

 

 

economic growth  (represented by Daniel Filmus) (reftel). 

 

-------------------- 

Still an Optimist 

-------------------- 

¶7.  (SBU)  In the end, Alfonsin said that he remains an optimist 

about the progress that Argentina has made so far.  He emphasized 

that at least the military is no longer involved in politics.  He 

explained his personal ties and affinity to the U.S., where his 

son's family lives.  He said that he is not fond of big receptions, 

but invited the Ambassador to call on him any time.  He also argued 

frankly that he believed U.S. policy had strayed badly in the Middle 

East, adding to anti-Americanism in Latin America as well as 

elsewhere. 

 

WAYNE 


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