VZCZCXYZ0002
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1102/01 1562054
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 052054Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8333
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001102 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; ROGER NORIEGA'S STATEMENTS ABOUT THE IMPACT 
OF BUENOS AIRES MAYOR ELECTIONS ON THE KIRCHNER ADMINISTRATION; THE 
G8 SUMMIT & THE US-RUSSIAN BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP; 06/05/07 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Leading international stories today include former US Assistant 
Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs Roger Noriega's remarks on 
 
SIPDIS 
the impact of Buenos Aires elections on the Kirchner administration; 
and the upcoming G8 summit vis-`-vis the US-Russian bilateral 
relationship. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS 
 
- "According to the US, Kirchner is vulnerable" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," penned (06/05) "According to some 
analysts and former (US) Government officials who followed the first 
round of Buenos Aires mayoral elections (among them, former US 
Assistant Secretary for Latin America Roger Noriega), Nestor 
Kirchner is vulnerable, the runoff in Buenos Aires elections could 
become a referendum on the Kirchner administration, and Mauricio 
Macri could well run for president in 2011 as long as he obtains a 
landslide victory within 20 days and he does not make too many 
mistakes in the future. 
 
"Noriega told 'La Nacion' in New York 'I believe yesterday's 
elections reaffirmed that President Kirchner is vulnerable, just as 
Misiones (elections) have already proved,' referring to the defeat 
suffered by Kirchnerist Governor Carlos Rovira. 
 
"'Macri defeated the official candidate by more than 20 points, when 
he was expected to do it by 10 points. This could push him to the 
presidency within four or five years, although this may not mean 
that he would be able to defeat the Kirchners, whether it is he or 
she, in October.' 
 
"The US Department of State, which Noriega left by mid-2005, avoided 
giving opinions about the election's outcome. According to a 
diplomatic source, they keep silent and wait. Furthermore, while 
(Noriega's) successor, Tom Shannon, often repeats that 2007 
epitomizes 'the year of connection' between the US and Latin 
America, following last year's wave of elections, his aides are 
extremely cautious when giving opinions about Argentina, in order to 
avoid political clashes. 
 
"Daniel Kerner, analyst for Latin America at Eurasia Group, the 
world's leading political risk advisory and consulting company, is 
also more cautious than Noriega, although he highlights an implicit 
risk for the Argentine Government in less than three weeks [second 
runoff for Buenos Aires mayoral election]. 
 
"According to Kerner, 'the Government avoided a substantial blow by 
getting its candidate, Daniel Filmus, into the runoff. However, 
Macri's unexpected advantage could well complicate the Government's 
position in the event the campaign becomes a referendum on the 
current national administration or a negative campaign becomes 
counter-productive.' 
 
"Nevertheless, and in line with the most renowned analysts in New 
York and Washington, Kerner does not believe that the Buenos Aires 
elections could alter the outcome of October presidential elections. 
In his view, 'it may not even alter the probable selection of 
Cristina Fernandez as a candidate.'" 
 
- "Some leftovers of the Cold War" 
 
An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (06/05) "Just a few days 
before the G8 summit..., the US-Russian bilateral relationship has 
deteriorated because of an exchange of accusations, which seems 
typical of the Cold War. 
 
"As a matter of fact, what is happening is a crisis of US 
unilateralism, the most conclusive manifestation of which is the 
chaotic and bloody war in Iraq and the (USG's) lack of a strategy to 
find a way out. On the other hand, the Russian government has 
implemented a more aggressive armament policy and has just tested a 
new missile with a capability to carry nuclear warheads... 
 
"The USG has interpreted Moscow's armament activism and diplomatic 
offensive as a consequence of the abandonment or unfinished review 
of treaties for and commitments to disarmament. Partly because of 
this, the (US) initiative of an anti-missile shield in Poland and 
the Czech Republic is seen as imposing a new strategic border on 
Russia rather than as part of the expansion of the European defense 
system." 
 
- "A political climate that reminds the Cold War" 
 
 
Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin," 
writes (06/05) "There has not been such a cold political climate for 
a G8 Summit since the changing years of Mijail Gorbachov in the 
former Soviet Union... 
 
"It is important to highlight that it not only comes down to the 
threat posed by Russian missiles targeting European cities (or 
perhaps inter-continental missiles targeting US cities) but to the 
fact that a pronounced division is being formed in Eastern Europe... 
 
 
"The German Social-Democratic opposition has already asked 
conservative FM Angela Merkel to adopt an eclectic position between 
Moscow's demands and Washington plans to set up a defense system in 
Europe, which is the reason alleged by Putin that justifies his new 
aggressive posture. 
 
"In other places, such as the Czech Republic, there are also some 
signs of mistrust towards the US project. And, while Merkel's 
opposition will hardly twist her arm (she supports the antimissile 
system), the situation recalls those times when the Soviet Union 
tried to lead Europe into a division vis-`-vis its main Atlantic 
ally." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
MATERA