VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBS #1878/01 1581521
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 071521Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5601
INFO RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1913

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 001878 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL BE EU
SUBJECT: Belgians React to Sarkozy's Influence 
 
 
Effect in-Country 
----------------- 
 
¶1.  Overall, Belgians have welcomed the election of 
French President Nicolas Sarkozy.  He is particularly 
supported by this country's northern, largely 
conservative Flemish majority.  Liberal (Flemish VLD) 
Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt was quick to extend 
congratulations to France's new president.  As he 
struggles to keep his position following Belgium's own 
elections on June 10, Verhofstadt shows interest in 
maintaining close bilateral ties and, like Sarkozy, 
advancing the European Union agenda. For their part, 
Francophone Belgians also recognize in him a source of 
energy and new ideas that could by osmosis seep across 
the border into fresh economic activity in Belgium's 
southern Wallonia. 
 
Effect on the Polls 
------------------- 
 
¶2.  Non-conservative Belgian politicians have 
maintained a studied diffidence about the victory of 
Sarkozy, lest he distract from their own chances at the 
polls.  The dynamic, head-to-head nature of the French 
election system and its latest super-personalities 
inspired intense scrutiny by the Belgian public during 
France's long presidential race.  The complex, multi- 
party and regional voting system at home pales in 
comparison to the French.  Major newspapers have 
featured prominent before- and after-articles about 
France's new president.  In fact, of the 14.5 million 
people reported to have watched the May 2 presidential 
debate between Sarkozy and presidential hopeful 
Segolene Royal, 500,000 of them were Belgian.  In a 
debate May 26 between Francophone Elio Di Rupo (PS) and 
Flemish Christian Democrat (CD&V) Yves Leterme, the two 
leading and most colorful contenders in the Belgian 
election, an estimated fewer than 300,000 francophones 
worldwide tuned in. 
 
¶3.  Indeed, Sarkozy's election was a particular blow to 
the dominant Socialist Party (PS) in Belgium's Walloon 
region contingent with industrial northern France.  Di 
Rupo, a vice-president of the Socialist International, 
attended the final campaign rally of PS candidate Royal 
in Lille in hopes of a little rub-off effect. It is 
unclear what influence Sarkozy's popular mandate may 
have had since encouraging francophone Liberals and 
Christian-Democrats to uncap fresh scandals and 
increase challenges that have emerged to Di Rupo's 
party two weeks before the vote.  Belgium seems on hold 
until its own election results are in before fully 
embracing Sarkozy lest the nation's key leaders change. 
 
¶4.  In any event, Belgian political leaders are waiting 
to see how Sarkozy carries out his promises to renew 
France's economy which, it is hoped, will in turn 
energize the Belgian economy, particularly in the less 
prosperous Walloonian south. Sarkozy and PM Verhofstadt 
agree that a strong Euro zone will foster job 
opportunities and economic growth that can benefit both 
countries.  Belgium is a nation whose exports equal 
roughly three-quarters of its GDP, so its political 
leaders strongly favor EU policies that integrate 
European economies and thus benefit Belgium's highly- 
export-oriented industrial structure. 
 
Effect on the Union 
------------------- 
 
¶5.  Belgian political and opinion leaders also appear 
curious about the influence that Sarkozy's 
determination and charismatic presence will have on the 
European Union.  Headquartered in Brussels, the EU 
holds key political and financial importance to 
Belgium.  Belgians are quite proud to call Brussels 
"the capital of Europe" and will pay close attention to 
Sarkozy's relationship with the EU.  According to the 
press, Sarkozy has won the favor of EC President Jose 
Manuel Barroso, in particular, for his support of 
economic reforms and his commitment to bring EU members 
to an agreement about the EU Constitution.  Belgian 
parties are divided on this issue of renegotiating a 
European basic law but have kept European policy 
outside of the current electoral debate. 
 
¶6.  In a lightning visit to Brussels on May 23, 
President Sarkozy met with Barroso; Sarkozy also met 
with PM Verhofstadt.  Both confirmed their commitment 
to create a separate economic body to have a firmer 
hand in the regulation of the Euro throughout the 
European Union.  They also agreed that the EU must work 
quickly to find a solution for the Constitutional 
Treaty.  Sarkozy reiterated his call for a quickly 
negotiated new EU Constitutional document.  For his 
part, Verhofstadt said publicly that he stands behind 
his public which ratified the failed EU constitution. 
While this might appear to divide the two leaders and 
their nations, both expressed a willingness to find a 
solution soon.  Barroso, in the meantime, stated that 
the European Commission is not in the process of 
negotiating an "ideal" treaty; but rather one on which 
all members can agree. 
 
The Turkish Question 
-------------------- 
 
¶7.  With a large Turkish immigrant community (250,000), 
Belgium is sympathetic to Turkey's desire to join the 
European Union. Verhofstadt stated that he cannot 
rightfully withhold membership from a country which is 
in compliance with all of the membership criteria. 
Since the requirements are clear, it is up to Turkey to 
determine how it will meet the criteria for membership. 
In stark contrast stands Sarkozy's major campaign 
commitment to do everything in his power to deny Turkey 
EU membership. 
FOX