VZCZCXRO1947
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHTV #1376/01 1310425
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 110425Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1027
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001376 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM IS
SUBJECT: COALITION SURVICES NO-CONFIDENCE VOTES; BARAK AND NETANYAHU 
LOOKING TOWARD EARLY ELECTIONS, POSSIBLY BY FALL 
 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (U) PM Olmert kept the Kadima Party and the coalition together 
despite last week's resignation of the coalition chairman, Avigdor 
Yitzhaki, and shaky support from the Labor Party, defeating 
opposition attempts to pass no-confidence votes on May 7.  Olmert's 
supporters bruited the possibility of bringing Opposition Leader 
Binyamin Netanyahu into his government as Defense Minister in a 
warning to Labor Party rebels who are urging Labor to quit the 
coalition.  This gambit appears to have backfired, however, as 
Netanyahu dismissed the offer and reiterated his call for early 
general elections.  Meanwhile, former PM Ehud Barak finally came 
forward with his views on Winograd; he echoed popular sentiment in 
saying publicly that Olmert should draw appropriate "personal 
conclusions" from the Winograd report -- without explicitly 
demanding Olmert's resignation.  Looking for a niche between his 
Labor rivals, Barak stated his intention to call for early elections 
if Olmert remains in office when the Labor Party elects its chairman 
on May 28 -- with the caveat that he, Barak, would join the 
coalition during the transitional period before elections.  End 
Summary. 
 
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BARAK BREAKS HIS SILENCE WITH AN "IF, BUT" 
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¶2.  (SBU) On May 9, the last of the Labor titans came forward and 
shared his views on Winograd.  Former PM Ehud Barak warned, "If on 
May 28, I am elected chairman of the Labor Party, and the prime 
minister has yet to reach personal conclusions, I will act to form a 
wide consensus in my party and with the faction leaders to determine 
an appropriate and agreed date for elections."  In so doing, Barak 
offered a position that splits the difference between his two main 
competitors -- MK Ami Ayalon, who has stated he will not keep Labor 
in the coalition as long as Olmert is at the helm, and current Labor 
Party Chairman, Amir Peretz, who is still clinging to the coalition 
with hopes of changing portfolios (he wants to swap defense for 
finance).  One well placed observer commented that Barak's support 
for new elections is a tactic meant to "put fear in Kadima," and to 
encourage Kadima to select a new leader, such as Shimon Peres. 
"Barak has a vested interest in staying in power at the Ministry of 
Defense for a few months" before elections, our contact continued, 
in order to position himself to challenge Netanyahu for the prime 
minister's post.  In any event, conventional wisdom among Labor, 
Kadima, Likud and other parties is that PM Olmert is not likely 
remain in office past August 2007. 
 
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NO CONFIDENCE MOTIONS FAIL 
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¶3.  (U) On May 7, less than 30 MKs supported the no-confidence 
motions put forward by United Torah Judaism (UTJ), the National 
Union, the National Religious Party, Likud and Meretz-Yachad -- far 
fewer than the 61-Member majority required for such a motion to 
succeed.  In the Kadima camp, two MKs refused to vote against the 
motion: MK Avigdor Yitzchaki, the former faction whip and coalition 
chairman, and Marina Solodkin, a Russian-speaking MK who remains 
disgruntled by Olmert's decision not to name her to a ministerial 
post one year ago.  She explained her decision, however, by saying 
"some things are a matter of conscience and some things are more 
important than the coalition.  I asked the prime minister nicely to 
quit and he said no." 
 
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LABOR'S LAST WORD YET TO BE SAID 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) In advance of the Knesset debate on the no-confidence 
motions, the Labor faction overruled a call by Chairman Amir Peretz 
to support the government.  The refusal of eight (of 19) Labor MKs 
(Danny Yatom, Ami Ayalon, Avishai Braverman, Ophir Pines Paz, Shelly 
Yacimovich, Eitan Cabel, and Michael Melchior) to support the 
government constitutes another warning to the Prime Minister, as 
Kadima's chief coalition partner is still capable of breaking up the 
coalition without recourse to a no-confidence motion.  A potential 
Labor decision to withdraw from the government has forced Olmert to 
look for new allies among the other ultra-Orthodox UTJ faction. 
 
¶5.  (U) Within Labor, a fierce debate is already raging between the 
advocates of withdrawal from the government -- Ofir Pines Paz and 
party secretary-general Eitan Cabel against ministerial veterans 
such as Binyamin Ben-Eliezer (and Barak), who say such a move will 
only play into the hands of Netanyahu,  who is widely expected to be 
the victor in the resulting elections.  Labor is due to take the 
crucial decision on whether to remain in the coalition at a meeting 
of its central committee scheduled for May 17, but this date is 
 
TEL AVIV 00001376  002 OF 002 
 
 
subject to change. 
 
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LIKUD NOT FLATTERED BY OLMERT'S COURTING 
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¶6.  (SBU) Netanyahu reacted unenthusiastically to a reported Kadima 
offer of the Defense Ministry and an election date in late 2008. 
"The Olmert government has ended its career," a Likud representative 
told the press. "Olmert himself won't survive the final [Winograd] 
report, so there is nothing to discuss regarding joining the 
coalition."  A maverick Likud MK has introduced an initiative in the 
Knesset to resurrect direct elections for Prime Minister, but 
Netanyahu has not endorsed this approach.  In fact, he reiterated 
his call for early, general elections.   A former advisor to 
Netanyahu seconded the press reports that Netanyahu anticipates an 
Olmert resignation in the summer, followed by general elections in 
late fall. 
 
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COALITION PARTNERS STEADY FOR NOW 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas and the Pensioners remain loyal to 
the coalition, and will remain in the government for the foreseeable 
future as they view elections as needlessly disruptive to their 
respective political agendas (countering strategic threats; securing 
funding for religious education; increasing pensions).  Shas could 
be enticed to support the Likud gambit of a direct election for the 
PM -- as this would allow their constituents an opportunity to 
topple Olmert while remaining in government.  YB leader Avigdor 
Lieberman is keeping a low profile, concentrating on building up his 
strategic threats ministry and hoping that the State prosecutor will 
not pursue indictments against him for campaign irregularities and 
possible personal improprieties stemming from his business interests 
and ties. 
 
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ON THE HORIZON 
-------------- 
 
¶8.  (U) On May 10, the Winograd Committee released the testimonies 
of the three principals at the time of the Second Lebanon War 
(Olmert, Peretz, Halutz), and pundits are pouring over what these 
leaders said about each other (and others), particularly Olmert's 
sharp criticism of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). 
 
¶9.  (U) Meretz MK Zahava Gal-on has reportedly gathered sufficient 
support in the Knesset to compel Prime Minister Olmert to 
participate in a special debate in the coming days to discuss "the 
prime minister's refusal to resign following the Winograd report." 
 
¶10. (SBU) Elections for the Presidency have been announced for June 
13, just two days after the likely Labor Party runoff on June 11. 
Olmert, having outmaneuvered his most popular Kadima rival (FM 
Livni), is reportedly pressing Vice Premier Shimon Peres to declare 
his candidacy for the Presidency with greater gusto -- to eliminate 
acceptable Kadima alternates to Olmert's continued leadership. 
 
CRETZ