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DE RUEHTV #1324/01 1241000
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P 041000Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
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RUEHAS/AMEMBASSY ALGIERS PRIORITY 8841
RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN PRIORITY 2074
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 2908
RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT PRIORITY 2103
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 9970
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS PRIORITY 2845
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 9741
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0217
RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT PRIORITY 6823
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 4226
RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH PRIORITY 9126
RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS PRIORITY 3318
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 5245
RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM PRIORITY 6736
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/COMSIXTHFLT  PRIORITY

UNCLAS TEL AVIV 001324 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD 
 
WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM 
NSC FOR NEA STAFF 
 
SECDEF WASHDC FOR USDP/ASD-PA/ASD-ISA 
HQ USAF FOR XOXX 
DA WASHDC FOR SASA 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC FOR PA 
CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL FOR POLAD/USIA ADVISOR 
COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE FOR PAO/POLAD 
COMSIXTHFLT FOR 019 
 
JERUSALEM ALSO ICD 
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL 
PARIS ALSO FOR POL 
ROME FOR MFO 
 
SIPDIS 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS
 
SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION 
 
 
-------------------------------- 
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT: 
-------------------------------- 
 
Aftermath of Winograd Probe Into 2nd Lebanon War 
 
------------------------- 
Key stories in the media: 
------------------------- 
 
All media reported that, following last night's mass protest rally 
at Tel Aviv's Rabin Square, which was attended by above 100,000 
Israelis, PM Ehud Olmert does not intend to resign, but to fix 
failures. The media quoted prominent liberal author Meir Shalev as 
saying at the gathering: "Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, you said you 
worked for us.  You are fired!"   The Jerusalem Post quoted sources 
close to Olmert as saying on Thursday that the key to Olmert 
remaining in power lies not with the politicians in his party and 
coalition or the masses in the square, but with the five members of 
the Winograd Commission.  Leading media reported that Olmert's 
associates downplayed the demonstration, saying it was irrelevant" 
as long as there was no chance of the Knesset unseating the PM.  The 
Jerusalem Post quoted Olmert associates as saying that the unity 
among Right and Left in the square was meaningless if the two sides 
could not agree on an alternative to Olmert.  Ha'aretz wrote that 
Olmert and Kadima leaders fear that the public outcry over the 
Winograd report could force the Labor Party to quit the government 
even before its primaries at the end of the month.  Ha'aretz said 
that moves at Labor to abandon Olmert are expanding.  Ha'aretz 
quoted Olmert's aides as saying on Thursday that the coalition's 
test will be its ability to survive until June, when Labor's second 
round of primaries is due. Ha'aretz quoted Labor Secretary-General 
Eitan Cabel, who resigned from the cabinet this week, as saying that 
he would convene the party's central committee on May 13 to vote on 
quitting the government.  The central committee will be asked to 
vote on proposals ruling out a partnership in an Olmert-headed 
coalition, but not in a government headed by another Kadima member. 
Yediot reported that Meretz-Yahad Chairman Yossi Beilin is working 
behind the scenes to replace Olmert with his former close friend, 
Vice PM Shimon Peres.  According to Yediot, Beilin supports 
overthrowing the Olmert government, but he is opposed to new 
elections since there is no majority for this in the Knesset. 
Beilin prefers that Kadima place Peres at its head -- a step that 
would receive the support of the Meretz movement. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that a US-Israel strategic dialogue 
originally scheduled for this month in Washington has been 
postponed, apparently because of the political situation here.  The 
newspaper reported that FM Livni will leave for a trip to Cairo on 
May 10 and host German FM next week, who will also be meeting 
Olmert. 
 
Ha'aretz reported that senior Israeli officials fear a confrontation 
with Washington over a document of benchmarks it has presented to 
Israel and the PA setting a detailed timetable for measures each 
side must implement.  The document, which Ha'aretz (English Ed.) 
prints in full, sets a schedule for removing roadblocks and opening 
passages in the territories and upgrading the Palestinian forces 
loyal to PA Chairman [President] Mahmoud Abbas.  Israel is also 
urged to approve requests for weapons, munitions and equipment 
required by defense forces loyal to Abbas.  Secretary of State 
Condoleezza Rice is to arrive on May 15 to discuss implementing the 
plan.  This morning Israel Radio reported that her visit might be 
postponed because of the political situation in Israel.  Ha'aretz 
said that officials in the defense establishment object to several 
issues in the document, especially the demand to expand the 
operation of the passages in the Gaza Strip and the removal of many 
roadblocks in the West Bank.  Ha'aretz cited the belief of those 
officials that the benchmarks involve security risks.  Ha'aretz said 
that Israel has not responded officially to the document and an 
inter-ministerial discussion on it was postponed on Thursday. 
Olmert's bureau is still waiting for the positions of the defense 
establishment, Foreign Ministry and Shin Bet vis-a-vis on the plan. 
The document, which Ha'aretz has obtained, sets a rigid timetable 
for implementing measures on either side.  It was written by the US 
security coordinator, Maj. Gen. Keith Dayton, US Ambassador to 
Israel Richard Jones, and US Consul-General in Jerusalem Jacob 
Walles.  According to Ha'aretz, it was sent to Washington, where it 
was approved by Secretary of State Rice before it was presented to 
Israel and the PA.  However, both Israel and the PA's official 
answer to the document are still pending.  Ha'aretz reported that 
Palestinian sources told the newspaper that the PA has accepted the 
document, but that it fears that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will 
sabotage the turning of it into an agreement due to his precarious 
political situation.  If both sides accept the document, it will 
become a binding agreement. 
 
All media reported that on Thursday Secretary Rice met with Syrian 
FM Walid Muallem during a regional conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, in 
the first high-level talks between the two countries in years.  The 
Jerusalem Post quoted GOI sources in Jerusalem as saying that there 
was nothing in the talks that needed to concern Jerusalem.  Asked if 
there was any concern that the US would be open to paying for Syrian 
cooperation on Iraq in Israeli currency, one senior Israel official 
was quoted as saying by The Jerusalem Post: "Not this US 
administration." Yediot quoted Israeli diplomatic officials who 
support talks with Syria as saying that Israel can talk with Syria 
if the US did so on Thursday. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that senior Israeli defense officials 
have told the newspaper that Egypt has expressed newfound interest 
in allowing Israel to construct a moat along the Philadelphi Route 
separating the Sinai desert from the Gaza Strip to combat 
Palestinian weapons smuggling. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that Israeli defense officials have told 
the newspaper that Israel and the Lebanese government are close to 
reaching a deal according to which the IDF will completely withdraw 
from the northern part of Ghajar, a village straddling the 
Israel-Lebanon border. 
 
Ha'aretz printed a Reuters wire report quoting European officials as 
saying that the EU and Palestinian Finance Minister have agreed to 
start making regular payments to Palestinian workers at the same 
time each month.  The Jerusalem Post reported that South Africa's 
Intelligence Minister, Ronnie Kasrils, on a trip to Gaza, invited 
Palestinian PM Ismail Haniyeh to South Africa,, in what would be 
Haniyeh's first trip outside the Muslim world. 
 
The Jerusalem Post cited a report by a Palestinian human rights 
group that attacks on Palestinian journalists in the West Bank and 
Gaza Strip by PA security officers and outlaw militiamen increased 
significantly last month. 
 
Israel Radio quoted John Rood, Assistant Secretary of State for 
International Security and Nonproliferation, as saying on Thursday 
that Iran may obtain long-range missiles -- capable of striking the 
US -- in eight years.  The radio reported that Daniel Fried, 
Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, 
cited similar intelligence estimates.  The Jerusalem Post reported 
that on Wednesday the Florida legislation became the first state 
government to pass a bill for divestment from Iran.  It passed 
unanimously, and, with its strong bipartisan backing, is expected to 
be signed by the Governor. 
 
Ha'aretz (English Ed.) reported that 93.6 Ram FM, an 
English-language radio station based in Ramallah, financed by a 
Jewish South African, and licensed by the PA, is now being broadcast 
on the Internet (www.ramfm.net).  The station aims to provide a 
platform for "peaceful dialogue" and includes hourly news updates on 
Palestinian and Israeli issues, as well as Western pop music.  The 
station began its official broadcast two months ago and is based on 
the popular South African radio station, 702 Talk Radio, which the 
station's founders believe played a key role in the transition from 
the country's apartheid regime to democracy. 
 
Ha'aretz (English Ed.) reported that this week Jewish residents of 
areas bordering the East Jerusalem village of Jabal Mukaber came out 
in support of their Palestinian neighbors with a "concert of hope." 
The event was organized with the objective of showing solidarity 
with the residents of the Sheikh Sa'ad neighborhood, which may be 
cut off from the rest of the village because of the controversial 
separation barrier.  Pulled together by the Arab-Jewish Center of 
Jabal Mukaber, which operates under the slogan "neighbors to 
neighbors," the concert and reception drew some 300 people, half 
Jewish and half Palestinian. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that on Wednesday the judge in the trial 
against former AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) 
staffers sternly chastised the prosecution for delaying the trial, 
after the USG asked for more time to decide how it will proceed in 
the case. 
 
Yediot reported that TIME Magazine placed FM Livni on its list of 
the "most influential people in the world." 
 
Maariv reported that British intelligence kept watch over then 
right-wing leader Menachem Begin for years after the establishment 
of Israel. 
 
Maariv reported that "R.," a staffer at Israel's Consulate-General 
in New York, took part in homosexual porn films at night while 
performing his diplomatic job during the day. 
 
Maariv reported that businessman Lev Leviev has become Israel's 
wealthiest man, leaving behind Sheri Arison and the Wertheimer 
family. 
 
Maariv printed the results of a TNS/Teleseker Polling Institute 
survey: 
-"Is military or security experience a necessary condition for 
serving as a prime minister in Israel?"  Yes: 54 percent; no: 42 
percent. 
-"Following the publication of the Winograd Commission's report, do 
 
you have confidence in the ability of the IDF to win the next war, 
should it break out?"  Great confidence: 80 percent; little 
confidence: 11 percent; no confidence: 5 percent. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Aftermath of Winograd Probe Into 2nd Lebanon War: 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized: 
"[Thursday night's rally] was ... a plea from across the nation for 
the Prime Minister not to impose himself any longer on the people." 
 
The independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz editorialized: "[Shimon 
Peres] must have the courage to bring the tenure of the Prime 
Minister to an end, and only then take on the temporary leadership 
of the country." 
 
Senior columnist Nahum Barnea wrote on page one of the circulation, 
pluralist Yediot Aharonot: "This is not the crowd that will come and 
demonstrate again next week, and the week after, until it topples 
the government.... [And] if the demonstrators knew that instead of 
Olmert they would get Netanyahu, it is unlikely they would have 
come." 
 
Diplomatic correspondent Ben Caspit wrote in the popular, pluralist 
Maariv: "Olmert wants to create the impression that he ... will 
arrive at the ceremony for his political hanging in August with as 
much credit as possible." 
 
Diplomatic correspondent Aluf Benn wrote in Ha'aretz: "In its 
convoluted language, the [Winograd] Commission determined that 
Israel did not make a serious effort to achieve peace with its 
neighbors." 
 
Senior columnist and chief defense commentator Zeev Schiff wrote in 
Ha'aretz: Hassan Nasrallah sized up the situation correctly.  He saw 
the two fronts against Israel -- Palestinian and Lebanese -- as a 
single unit." 
 
Deputy Managing Editor and right-wing columnist Caroline B. Glick 
wrote in The Jerusalem Post: "If we wish to win the next war, 
replacing the government will be insufficient.  We also need to dump 
the leftist narrative of peace which brought us both our current 
crop of failed leaders, and last summer's defeat." 
 
Washington correspondent Shmuel Rosner wrote in Ha'aretz: "Like many 
residents of Israel, [senior US officials] waxed nostalgic this 
week, more than ever, about the days of Ariel Sharon." 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
¶I.  "A Plea From the People" 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized (5/4): 
"Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his backers in Kadima have taken 
every failure and criticism and attempted to transform them, 
judo-style, into another reason to stay in office.  According to 
Olmert's logic, Winograd said we failed, so who better than us to 
fix the failures?  The easy thing, Olmert says, would be to resign, 
rather than take responsibility.  This is Orwellian.  In the real 
world, resigning, not clinging to power, is how a leader takes 
responsibility for profound failures.  Having turned the concepts of 
responsibility and accountability on their heads, Kadima is now 
trying to do the same for democracy as well.... The masses in the 
square last night came from left and right, from the whole width of 
the Israeli demographic.... It was ... a plea from across the nation 
for the Prime Minister not to impose himself any longer on the 
people.  In this context, the political Left deserves substantial 
credit... [It] urged the public to go [to the rally], knowing that 
the consequence could well be a government that, according to their 
lights, might move the country in the wrong direction.... The depth 
of the crisis has indeed awakened the public from its slumber." 
 
II.  "Peres's Responsibility" 
 
The independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz editorialized (5/4): "The 
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Tzipi Livni, who until 
Wednesday was seen as the natural successor to Olmert, opted for a 
secure spot on the fence.... It is unfortunate that the Vice 
Premier, Shimon Peres, joined the choir of ministers holding on to 
the bizarre argument that a leader who directed such a failed war is 
the right person in a post where every day a decision could be made 
to go to war again.  According to the Winograd report, Peres was the 
only one among the ministers who did not behave like a rubber stamp 
to the plans the IDF presented, and he warned that the plan put 
forth by then chief of staff Dan Halutz for an offensive against 
Hizbullah seemed 'myopic, routine and expected.'  The veteran 
statesman recommended to look into the broader context of the 
operation in the North and respond in a creative way, without 
overestimating Israel's power.... The Winograd report confirms the 
advantage inherent in Peres' enormous experience.  The order of the 
day is to stabilize the political system after Olmert is removed. 
That is the double challenge facing Peres.  He must have the courage 
to bring the tenure of the Prime Minister to an end, and only then 
take on the temporary leadership of the country." 
 
III.  "The Numbers are the Message" 
 
Senior columnist Nahum Barnea wrote on page one of the circulation, 
pluralist Yediot Aharonot (5/4): "The crowd that arrived last night 
at the square [in Tel Aviv] was amazingly democratic, pure 
intentioned, and patently unthreatening. People clapped, called 
'Olmert resign,' bore signs that were restrained in their language 
that were given to them by the organizers or that they prepared at 
home, and listened politely to the speeches on the stage.  This is 
not the kind of crowd that takes to the barricades.  This is not the 
crowd that will come and demonstrate again next week, and the week 
after, until it topples the government.  It is odd to say about the 
Israeli public, particularly the Israeli public, that it is naove. 
And yet, for good and for bad, the people who came to demonstrate 
last night were naove.  For good, because what they knew about the 
war and what they read in the Winograd report, truly offended them. 
They wish for a better government, a cleaner, more effective 
government.  For bad, because the majority of them came without 
thinking about what the political outcome of their battle would be. 
It is easy to demand the ouster of the Prime Minister but the real 
challenge is to change the rules of the game, the political culture, 
the quality of government.  If the demonstrators knew that instead 
of Olmert they would get Netanyahu, it is unlikely they would have 
come." 
 
IV.  "Olmert's Sigh of Relief" 
 
Diplomatic correspondent Ben Caspit wrote in the popular, pluralist 
Maariv (5/4): "The Prime Minister takes to heart every single 
citizen that went to demonstrate against him.  He is not happy. But 
on the other and, he also is not over.  'IQll get through this 
safely,' Olmert told his aides, but his advisers are still very 
worried.  They believe that they got through the earthquake, but 
that no less dangerous aftershocks can be expected, and that the 
minutes of the testimony to the Winograd Commission are the next 
shock.  According to a few sources, Olmert can expect to be 
embarrassed by his harsh criticism of his predecessors, including 
Sharon, in his testimony.... Olmert wants to create the impression 
that he is implementing the conclusions of the committee with 
determination and sensitivity, so that he can arrive at the ceremony 
for his political hanging in August with as much credit as possible. 
 Who knows, may he will able, with this credit, to redeem himself -- 
if not to the public, at least to a judge." 
 
¶V.  "Don't Give In" 
 
Diplomatic correspondent Aluf Benn wrote in Ha'aretz (5/4): "This is 
the most interesting and thought-provoking paragraph in the entire 
interim report published by the Winograd Commission: In its 
convoluted language, the commission determined that Israel did not 
make a serious effort to achieve peace with its neighbors, due to 
its faith that it was invincible and that the Arabs would not dare 
challenge its military superiority.  The commission takes issue with 
the premise that has guided Israeli defense policy since 1991 at 
least, which is that the era of the big wars is over, and that the 
threats of the future are the Iranian nuclear bomb, Katyusha and 
Qassam rockets, and suicide bombers.... This week, in the shadow of 
the storm, no one was focusing on strategy or diplomatic processes. 
But once the political dust settles, and a new government takes hold 
in Jerusalem, its leaders ought to give this paragraph of the 
Winograd report a careful reading.  Perhaps they will learn some 
lessons from it for the future." 
 
VI.  "The Conspicuously Absent Issue" 
 
Senior columnist and chief defense commentator Zeev Schiff wrote in 
Ha'aretz (5/4): "From the [Winograd] report, it emerges that the 
Palestinian front imposed constraints on the IDF in its battle with 
Hizbullah.  In view of the situation in the territories, the IDF 
transferred some of its finest infantry units from the North. 
Little by little, Israel lost its power of deterrence against 
Hizbullah.  Even worse, Hizbullah ended up deterring Israel.  A kind 
of mutual deterrence was created.  Israel's warnings to Hizbullah 
remained empty threats.... Hassan Nasrallah sized up the situation 
correctly.  He saw the two fronts against Israel -- Palestinian and 
Lebanese -- as a single unit." 
 
VII.  "The Fruits of Hizbullah's Victory" 
 
Deputy Managing Editor and right-wing columnist Caroline B. Glick 
wrote in The Jerusalem Post (5/4): "What comes across most clearly 
in the Winograd Report is the commission members' desire to ignore 
the fact that the Second Lebanon War was a war of ideas no less than 
a war on the battlefield.  Last summer Israel had the opportunity to 
expose the truth about the nature of the war being fought against 
it.  It had the opportunity to assert itself as a vital ally of the 
US.  It had the chance to defeat the leftist narrative of peace 
which claims that there is no difference between the IDF and the 
terror forces attacking Israeli society and so there is no reason to 
seek to defeat them; and which claims that the war against Israel is 
not connected to the global jihad.  It is too early to know how the 
political drama now unfolding in Israel will pan out.  But what 
Rice's current misdirection of the war on all fronts, and the 
emboldening of Israel's enemies and the forces of global jihad 
throughout the world show clearly is that last summer Israel lost 
two wars, not one.   And if we wish to win the next war, replacing 
the government will be insufficient.  We also need to dump the 
leftist narrative of peace which brought us both our current crop of 
failed leaders, and last summer's defeat." 
 
VIII.  "Reality Overtaken by Events" 
 
Washington correspondent Shmuel Rosner wrote in Ha'aretz (5/4): "The 
Prime Minister is the usual and natural choice in the Israeli 
government for dealing with the American file.  The ambassador to 
Washington, Sallai Meridor, is Olmert's emissary; that was made 
absolutely clear this week when Meridor, only an hour after his 
minister declared that in her opinion Olmert should go home, said at 
a public event that he 'personally' actually hopes that Olmert will 
survive the crisis.  Under these circumstances, and at a time when 
the Prime Minister is so weak, the Americans are concerned mainly 
about the vacuum that will exist until Olmert's fate is decided, 
either way.  Livni has an excellent reputation in Rice's office and 
among her staff -- at least that is the impression that they are 
trying to create -- but not necessarily in other government 
departments in the US capital.  Senior American officials close to 
the leadership, who gossiped this week about events in Israel, did 
not conceal a hint of condescension when discussing Livni.  Not that 
they like Olmert so much: They too, like many residents of Israel, 
waxed nostalgic this week, more than ever, about the days of Ariel 
Sharon." 
 
JONES