VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTVA #1305 1231316
ZNR UUUUU ZZH ZUI RUEWMCF8209 1231331
O 031316Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0000
INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS TEL AVIV 001305 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB IS LE
SUBJECT:  WINOGRAD FALLOUT AND POLITICAL REPERCUSSIONS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY/OVERVIEW:  PM OLMERT SURMOUNTED TWO HURDLES IN THE 
IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH OF THE APRIL 30 RELEASE OF THE WINOGRAD 
COMMITTEE'S INTERIM REPORT ON THE SECOND LEBANON WAR:  A MAY 2 
COALITION MEETING AND A MAY 2 KADIMA FACTION MEETING THAT COULD HAVE 
SPELLED AN IMMEDIATE END TO HIS POLITICAL CAREER.   ON MAY 3, HE 
ATTENDED (BUT DID NOT ADDRESS) A SPECIAL SESSION OF THE KNESSET, 
WHERE FACTION LEADERS FROM THE OPPOSITION PARTIES, INCLUDING 
OPPOSITION LEADER NETANYAHU, CALLED FOR HIS RESIGNATION.  TONIGHT, A 
PLANNED DEMONSTRATION IN DOWNTOWN TEL AVIV WILL DETERMINE WHETHER 
THE ISRAELI PUBLIC TURNS OUT IN MASSIVE NUMBERS, OR REMAINS 
RELATIVELY INDIFFERENT.  STUDENT STRIKES, INITIATED WEEKS BEFORE THE 
WINOGRAD REPORT, COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE NUMBERS OF PROTESTORS WHO 
SHOW UP.  ON MAY 3, THE KNESSET WILL RESUME ITS SUMMER SESSION WITH 
PLENARY CONSIDERATION OF FOUR NO-CONFIDENCE MOTIONS, BUT, GIVEN THE 
CURRENT COHESIVENESS OF OLMERT'S 78-MEMBER COALITION, THESE ATTEMPTS 
TO BRING DOWN THE GOVERNMENT ARE LIKELY TO FAIL.  OLMERT IS NOT 
HOME-FREE, HOWEVER.  THE BLISTERING ATTACKS ON HIM AND THE DEMANDS 
THAT HE RESIGN IN THE MEDIA CONTINUE, AND MUST BE TAKING A TOLL. 
POLLS SHOW A STRONG MAJORITY OF ISRAELIS SUPPORT EARLY ELECTIONS, 
BUT THE MECHANISM TO GET THERE IS NOT CLEAR.  END SUMMARY. 
---------------------- 
LIVNI'S MIXED MESSAGES 
---------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) PUNDITS REFER TO LIVNI'S PRESS CONFERENCE OF MAY 2 -- WHERE 
SHE ANNOUNCED THAT SHE HAD RECOMMENDED THAT OLMERT RESIGN AND 
PLANNED TO RUN FOR PARTY LEADERSHIP, YET DECIDED TO REMAIN IN HIS 
GOVERNMENT -- AS A FAILED PUTSCH AND A POLITICAL DISASTER FOR THE 
FOREIGN MINISTER WHO IS PORTRAYED IN THE MEDIA AS A "RABBIT IN THE 
HEADLIGHTS."  OLMERT HAS NOT FIRED HER, BUT THE MEDIA SPECULATES 
THAT HE MAY REPLACE HER WITH TRANSPORTATION MINISTER AND FORMER 
DEFENSE MINISTER SHAUL MOFAZ.   MEANWHILE, MFA DG ABRAMOVITCH HAS 
BEEN NAMED THE PRIMARY POINT PERSON FOR IMPLEMENTING WINOGRAD 
REFORMS IN COOPERATION WITH THE LIPKIN-SHAHAK COMMITTEE THAT OLMERT 
CHARGED WITH THIS TASK. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
OLMERT EMERGES FROM KADIMA MEETING INTACT 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) ON THE EVENING OF MAY 2, MK YITZHAKI FOLLOWED THROUGH WITH 
HIS PLEDGED AND RESIGNED AS KNESSET COALITION LEADER (BUT NOT HIS 
KNESSET SEAT) AFTER CALLING ON OLMERT TO RESIGN EARLIER IN THE DAY. 
KADIMA MK HANEGBI, WHO HEADS THE KNESSET FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND DEFENSE 
COMMITTEE, WILL TAKE HIS PLACE.   DISSENT FROM MKS WHO HAD 
PREVIOUSLY CALLED FOR OLMERT'S RESIGNATION (E.G., MKS TIROSH AND 
NUDELMAN) FIZZLED, WITH ONLY MK SOLODKIN MAINTAINING THIS REFRAIN. 
OLMERT SUPPORTERS INCLUDE KEY KADIMA STALWARTS SUCH AS MOFAZ AND 
CONSTRUCTION MINISTER MEIR SHEETRIT, WHO NONETHELESS HAS ANNOUNCED 
THAT HE INTENDS TO RUN FOR PARTY LEADERSHIP IN THE FUTURE.   PUBLIC 
SECURITY MINISTER AVI DICHTER, WHO HAD BEEN PORTRAYED AS BACKING 
LIVNI, REMAINED IN OLMERT'S CAMP BUT CALLED ON OLMERT NOT TO FIRE 
LIVNI. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
PERSPECTIVES FROM OTHER KADIMA COALITION PARTNERS 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) SHAS:  THE SENIOR ADVISOR TO MINISTER MESHULAM NAHARI TOLD 
POLOFF MAY 2 THAT SHAS STILL SUPPORTS OLMERT AND HIS GOVERNMENT AND 
WILL STAY IN THE COALITION WITH THE IMMEDIATE GOAL OF IMPLEMENTING 
THE WINOGRAD RECOMMENDATIONS.  SHAS DOES NOT WANT THE GOVERNMENT TO 
FALL, AND DOES NOT WANT EARLY ELECTIONS. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) PENSIONERS:  AN AIDE TO MK ZIV TOLD PRESS OFFICER MAY 2 
THAT THE PARTY WAS "TECHNICALLY SUPPORTING OLMERT, BUT THIS SUPPORT 
WOULD NOT (LAST) FOREVER."   THE PARTY IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNITED, 
BUT IS NOT INTERESTED IN EARLY ELECTIONS. MK ZIV PREFERS SHIMON 
PERES AS THE NEXT PM, AND FORMER LIKUD MK AND SPEAKER REUVEN RIVLIN 
FOR PRESIDENT. 
 
¶6. (SBU) YISRAEL BEITEINU:  AN AIDE TO MINISTER AVIGDOR LIEBERMAN 
TOLD POLOFF EARLIER IN THE WEEK THAT YB WILL REMAIN IN THE 
GOVERNMENT, AND WON'T SUPPORT INTERNAL EFFORTS TO OUST OLMERT, OR 
THE OPPOSITION CALL FOR EARLY ELECTIONS. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
KNESSET DEBATES WINOGRAD REPORT IN SPECIAL SESSION 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶7.  (U) ON MAY 3, THE KNESSET CONVENED IN EXTRAORDINARY SESSION TO 
DISCUSS THE WINOGRAD REPORT.  PM OLMERT DID NOT ADDRESS THE FACTION 
DEBATE BUT WAS PRESENT TO HEAR FACTION LEADERS DISCUSS THE REPORT. 
THE DEBATE WAS OPENED BY OPPOSITION LEADER BINYAMIN NETANYAHU WHO 
CALLED FOR PM OLMERT'S RESIGNATION AND ELECTIONS. NETANYAHU SAID THE 
PRIME MINISTER HAD FAILED IN HIS HANDLING OF THE SECOND LEBANON WAR 
AND MUST RESIGN. "THOSE WHO FAILED AT WAR CANNOT BE THOSE WHO 
CORRECT THE FAILURES," HE SAID.  IN CLEAR ANTICIPATION OF TONIGHT'S 
SCHEDULED RALLY IN TEL AVIV, NETANYAHU CONCLUDED HIS SPEECH WITH A 
CALL TO THE PEOPLE OF ISRAEL: "A GOVERNMENT AND THE ELECTED 
REPRESENTATIVES OF THE PUBLIC DRAW THEIR AUTHORITY FROM THE PEOPLE. 
THE ROOTS OF AUTHORITY AND LEGITIMACY OF THIS GOVERNMENT HAVE DRIED 
UP. IN A DEMOCRACY, THE PEOPLE ARE SOVEREIGN AND WE MUST RETURN TO 
THE PEOPLE AND LET IT HAVE ITS SAY (I.E., THROUGH THE BALLOT BOX) 
LET US GO TO THE PEOPLE AND RESTORE ITS HOPE," NETANYAHU CONCLUDED. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
DEFENSE MINISTER SKIPS KNESSET DEBATE, AND STAYS ON.... 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶8.  (U) LABOR MK SHELLY YACHIMOVICH, A PROTGE OF DEFENSE MINISTER 
AMIR PERETZ, IS REPORTED TO HAVE MET WITH HIM YESTERDAY AND URGED 
HIM TO RESIGN.  PERETZ, WHO HAS ALREADY ANNOUNCED PLANS TO LEAVE THE 
MINISTRY OF DEFENSE AFTER THE LABOR LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS AT THE END 
OF MAY, WAS RUMORED TO BE CONSIDERING RESIGNATION YESTERDAY. 
HOWEVER, THE MORNING MEDIA REPORTED THAT HE HAD DECIDED AGAINST SUCH 
A STEP FOR THE TIME BEING.  PERETZ SKIPPED THE KNESSET DEBATE ON THE 
WINOGRAD REPORT AT MIDDAY TODAY -- MUCH TO THE DISPLEASURE OF BOTH 
RIGHT AND LEFT WING MKS. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS IN AN UPROAR 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) MFA CONTACTS HAVE TOLD US THAT FM LIVNI'S WORK CALENDAR 
HAS REFLECTED INCREASING FOCUS ON POLITICAL ACTIVITY, AT THE EXPENSE 
OF HER NORMAL MFA DUTIES.  ONE CONTACT CHARACTERIZED THE CAFETERIA 
CHATTER AS "UNBELIEVABLE" AND UNPRECEDENTED:   HE SAID HE HEARD MANY 
COLLEAGUES WONDERING ALOUD WHETHER IT WAS ACCEPTABLE FOR THEM TO 
JOIN THE PROTEST TO DEMAND OLMERT'S RESIGNATION IN TEL AVIV THIS 
EVENING.  OTHER CONTACTS TOLD US THAT THEY WERE NOT SURPRISED AT 
LIVNI'S RESPONSE YESTERDAY, ARGUING THAT IT WAS A STEP TOO FAR AT 
THIS POINT IN HER POLITICAL CAREER.  THEY REMAIN CONCERNED THAT 
OLMERT WILL NOW SEEK "REVENGE" OF SOME SORT AGAINST LIVNI AND THAT 
THE MFA WILL PAY A PRICE EVEN IF THE PM PLEDGES TO FOLLOW WHATEVER 
CORRECTIONS IN THE POLICY DECISION-MAKING PROCESS ARE RECOMMENDED BY 
THE PROPOSED COMMISSION. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
DEMONSTRATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE MOSTLY STUDENTS 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶10.  (U) A STUDENT UNION LEADER FROM BEN GURION UNIVERSITY TOLD 
POLOFF THAT "TENS OF THOUSANDS" OF STUDENTS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PARTICIPATE IN THE DEMONSTRATION IN DOWNTOWN TEL AVIV THIS EVENING. 
AN APRIL PROTEST/STRIKE ORGANIZED BY UNIVERSITY STUDENTS ANGERED BY 
THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT'S ALLEGED FAILURE TO IMPLEMENT A TUITION 
REDUCTION COMMITMENT BROKERED BY NONE OTHER THAN JUDGE WINOGRAD IN 
2001, HAS CONTINUED, AND BROUGHT IN SOME HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS AND 
THEIR TEACHERS AS WELL.  THUS FAR, THE STUDENTS HAVE REJECTED A 
COMPROMISE OFFERED BY THE GOI AND MAY NOW JUMP ON THE WINOGRAD 
INTERIM REPORT RELEASE AS A VEHICLE TO AMPLIFY THEIR GRIEVANCES. 
MOREOVER, MANY OF THE RESERVISTS CALLED UP IN THE SECOND LEBANON WAR 
WERE STUDENTS. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
NEXT WEEK: KNESSET SUMMER SESSION BEGINS WITH NO-CONFIDENCE MOTIONS 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶11.  (U) THE KNESSET PLENARY WILL CONVENE ON MONDAY, MAY 7, IN THE 
MORNING.  ON THE DOCKET ARE FOUR NO-CONFIDENCE MEASURES.  THIS IS 
NOT UNUSUAL -- THE GOVERNMENT COALITION NORMALLY FACES SUCH 
CHALLENGES EACH MONDAY THE KNESSET IS IN SESSION.  HOWEVER, THERE 
WILL BE GREATER ATTENTION ON THESE VOTES -- WHICH WILL CLARIFY 
WHETHER THE 78-MEMBER COALITION WILL MAINTAIN DISCIPLINE IN THE WAKE 
OF WINOGRAD AND SECURE THE REQUISITE 61 (OUT 120 VOTES) TO DEFEAT 
SUCH MOTIONS.  IF THE KNESSET MAJORITY EXPRESSES NO CONFIDENCE IN 
THE GOVERNMENT, THE GOVERNMENT SHALL BE DEEMED TO HAVE RESIGNED ON 
THE DAY OF THE EXPRESSION OF NO CONFIDENCE, BUT SUCH A VOTE -- 
UNLIKELY TO SUCCEED AT THIS JUNCTURE --WOULD NOT NECESSARILY LEAD TO 
EARLY ELECTIONS.