VZCZCXYZ0010
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTV #1299/01 1231026
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 031026Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0882
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAHQA/HQ USAF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEADWD/DA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUENAAA/CNO WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI PRIORITY 2088
RUEHAS/AMEMBASSY ALGIERS PRIORITY 8826
RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN PRIORITY 2056
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 2893
RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT PRIORITY 2088
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 9953
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS PRIORITY 2830
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 9726
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0202
RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT PRIORITY 6808
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 4211
RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH PRIORITY 9111
RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS PRIORITY 3303
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 5227
RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM PRIORITY 6713
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/COMSIXTHFLT  PRIORITY

UNCLAS TEL AVIV 001299 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD 
 
WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM 
NSC FOR NEA STAFF 
 
SECDEF WASHDC FOR USDP/ASD-PA/ASD-ISA 
HQ USAF FOR XOXX 
DA WASHDC FOR SASA 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC FOR PA 
CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL FOR POLAD/USIA ADVISOR 
COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE FOR PAO/POLAD 
COMSIXTHFLT FOR 019 
 
JERUSALEM ALSO ICD 
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL 
PARIS ALSO FOR POL 
ROME FOR MFO 
 
SIPDIS 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS
 
SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION 
 
-------------------------------- 
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT: 
-------------------------------- 
 
Winograd Probe Into 2nd Lebanon War 
 
------------------------- 
Key stories in the media: 
------------------------- 
 
All media reported that PM Ehud Olmert won a tactical victory on 
Wednesday in the power struggle within the Kadima party, rallying 
the majority of party Knesset members to his support, despite FM 
Tzipi Livni's press conference in which she urged him to resign. 
Yediot quoted Olmert advisers as saying that Olmert has decided to 
fire Livni -- not now, but later, when he will replace her with 
Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz.  Maariv quoted Olmert 
associates as saying that Livni's dismissal is not on the agenda. 
As of Wednesday there were only three rebels in Kadima whose 
intentions had been made public: Livni and MKs Avigdor Yitzhaki and 
Marina Solodkin.  In an announcement on Wednesday, the faction said 
it is backing the PM and supports his decision to quickly implement 
the recommendations of the Winograd Commission.  The statement also 
stressed that Olmert intends to work to bolster the coalition. The 
media quoted VP Shimon Peres as saying at the end of the meeting 
that he was not surprised at the extent of the support for Olmert. 
MK Tzachi Hanegbi will fill Yitzhaki's post as coalition whip for 
the next two weeks.  Ha'aretz quoted sources close to Defense 
Minister and Labor Party leader Amir Peretz as saying that he does 
not intend to resign following the release of the Winograd report. 
According to the sources, Peretz plans to stay at the ministry's 
helm until the Labor primaries scheduled for May 28.  The sources 
refuted reports on Wednesday that Peretz was considering resigning. 
They were quoted as saying that the reason for the reports was that 
Peretz consulted additional advisers on whether to step down. 
Israel Radio reported that Peretz might resign by Friday. 
 
Yediot and Maariv carried the same banner: "Test of the Square." 
They were referring to how politicians will react to the size of the 
mass rally planned for tonight at Rabin Square in Tel Aviv.  The 
demonstration's organizers called on politicians to stay away from 
the demonstration.  Prior to the organizers' decision, Likud 
Chairman Binyamin Netanyahu and Meretz head Yossi Beilin had been 
named as possible speakers.  Leading electronic media reported that 
this morning Netanyahu told the Knesset's Likud faction that the 
current government "has lost the trust of the public, if it had any 
to begin with.  Therefore, we need to return to the public so it can 
speak for itself." 
 
Ha'aretz reported that the international community is keeping a 
close eye on recent political developments in Israel.  The newspaper 
said that the Foreign Ministry learned that the Winograd report's 
repercussions received high priority in last week's meeting of the 
EU Council of Ministers.  Ha'aretz quoted EU foreign policy chief 
Javier Solana as saying that should the government collapse 
following the report, then "it would constitute a death blow to the 
peace process, particularly with the PA."  Israel Radio quoted the 
Egyptian FM as saying that Israel should not be pressured at this 
time of political crisis. 
 
Ha'aretz reported that the Winograd Commission has found that, 
during the Second Lebanon War, unlike Israel's political leaders, 
the Air Force and General Staff received good intelligence, which 
was not transferred to ground forces. 
 
Leading media reported that on Wednesday, in an unprecedented move, 
Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah praised the Winograd 
Commission's report and regretted that there had not been such a 
development in Lebanon. 
 
Ha'aretz quoted PA Chairman [President] Mahmoud Abbas as saying on 
Wednesday, following a meeting with Meretz Chairman Yossi Beilin in 
Ramallah, that Egypt presented Israel and Hamas with a new proposal 
for a deal for the release of kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Shalit. 
Abbas was quoted as saying that two to three weeks are necessary to 
discuss the new Egyptian proposal.  In a press conference, Abbas 
also spoke about the economic siege on the PA, and said the 
authority may collapse in two months unless it receives 
international aid.  "Anyone who thinks that the fall of the 
government can be brought about without the collapse of the PA does 
not know what he is talking about," Abbas said, criticizing the 
boycott against the Palestinian unity government. "European 
countries want to work with the government, and they reject the 
economic boycott over the Palestinian people," Abbas was quoted as 
saying.  Maariv quoted Abbas as saying that he would discuss peace 
with Netanyahu.  Ha'aretz quoted Beilin, who was in Ramallah for a 
gathering of Geneva Initiative supporters, as saying that there are 
70 Knesset members who currently support a peace agreement, but he 
warned that the situation would change if there were elections. 
 
Leading media quoted Israel's Ambassador to the US, Sallai Meridor, 
as saying on Wednesday that, faced with what he called the biggest 
buildup by Syria along its border with Israel since the Yom Kippur 
War, Israel is privately reassuring its Arab neighbor that it is not 
seeking a confrontation. 
 
All media reported that on Wednesday the Shin Bet revealed that 
former Balad Party chairman Azmi Bishara was under investigation for 
allegedly spying on behalf of Hizbullah during the Second Lebanon 
War by providing the guerrilla group with targets for their rockets, 
as well as classified military information.  Media reported that the 
Shin Bet suspects Bishara of having received hundreds of thousands 
of dollars; while The Jerusalem Post said that this is one of the 
most serious cases of espionage in Israeli history, Ha'aretz wrote 
that no concrete evidence has been presented to back the allegations 
against Bishara.  Ha'aretz reported that for now, recordings of 
Bishara's conversations before and during the war, allegedly with 
Hizbullah agents, is not being released, in an effort to protect the 
investigation.  Ha'aretz cited Balad's claim that there is a chasm 
between the charges and the evidence presented by the Shin Bet. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that Iran and the US remain noncommittal 
regarding a possible meeting between the countries' senior diplomats 
in Sharm el-Sheikh.  Yediot reported that Syrian FM Walid Mualem 
does not rule out a meeting with Secretary of State Condoleezza 
Rice, and highlighted Iran's refusal to meet with her. 
 
Yediot, Maariv, and The Jerusalem Post reported that Mikki 
Goldwasser, the mother of abducted IDF soldier Ehud Goldwasser, sent 
an emotional letter to Hizbullah's spiritual leader, Ayatollah 
Muhammad Fadlallah, asking for a sign of life from her son. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that, in his memoir, "At the Center of 
the Storm: My Years at the CIA," former CIA Director George Tenet 
blames Yasser Arafat for being the "last impenetrable barrier to 
peace." 
 
Conservative French presidential hopeful Nicolas Sarkozy was quoted 
as sayng in an interview with The Jerusalem Post that he defends 
Israel's right to protect itself, but that Israel's security must 
not infringe upon a future viable Palestinian state. 
 
Media reported that, during the hearing he held on Wednesday about 
the sexual offenses allegedly committed by Israeli President Moshe 
Katsav, Attorney General Menachem Mazuz attentively listened to 
arguments presented by Katsav's lawyers.  A second hearing will take 
place in two weeks. 
The Jerusalem Post reported that NATO is financing research at the 
Tachyon-Israel Institute of Technology in Haifa on protecting water 
supply systems against biological and chemical terrorism. 
 
Yediot quoted the late US President Ronald Reagan as saying in his 
diaries, which his widow Nancy Reagan handed over to a historian and 
are slated to be published in book form that he thought that the end 
of the world had come when Israel bombed Iraq's nuclear reactor in 
¶1981.  Maariv reported that Reagan wrote in 1982 that Ariel Sharon 
is the "bad guy looking for war." 
 
------------------------------------ 
Winograd Probe Into 2nd Lebanon War: 
------------------------------------ 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
The independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz editorialized: "If Israel's 
citizens have anything to say about the conduct of their government 
during last summer's war, then they should ... turn out tonight at 
the protest rally at [Tel Aviv's] Rabin Square and demand its 
resignation." 
 
Meretz-Yahad Party Chairman and Knesset Member Yossi Beilin and 
National Union-National Religious Party Knesset Member Effie Eitam 
wrote in a joint page one article in the popular, pluralist Maariv: 
"We are on either side of the fence on nearly every issue.... [But] 
We call upon every citizen, man and woman, no matter what their 
political position is, to come today and protect ... the public's 
right to influence its fate." 
 
Liberal op-ed writer Yael Paz-Melamed commented in Maariv: "In 
practice, it is a demonstration aimed at changing the government in 
Israel, and changing the government means the return of Bibi 
[Netanyahu] and the Likud." 
 
Senior columnist Dan Margalit wrote in Maariv: "[Olmert] is 
assured... of losing either way.... If he ... leaves Livni in... 
[this] will wear out his strength.... If he dismisses her, he will 
bear the responsibility for the greatest internal crisis that Kadima 
has known since the war." 
 
Political parties correspondent Yossi Verter wrote on page one of 
Ha'aretz: "Yitzhak Rabin said about Shimon Peres that leadership is 
not built on whining; by the same token, one can say about Livni 
that leadership is not built on cowardice." 
 
Political parties correspondent Sima Kadmon wrote on page one of the 
mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot Aharonot: "An honest politician 
is definitely good news, but it is not enough to run a country." 
 
Diplomatic correspondent Ben Caspit wrote on page one of the 
popular, pluralist Maariv: "Tzipi Livni's 'finest hour' was very 
small on Wednesday." 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized: "The 
nation now desperately needs new leadership, so that the first steps 
on the long road to recovery can be taken." 
 
Shlomo Avineri, Hebrew University Professor of Political Science and 
former director-general of the Foreign Ministry, wrote in The 
Jerusalem Post: "The Winograd Report ... sends a message to all of 
us, the sovereign people: Never again must Israel be led by people 
with no experience in security or defense matters." 
 
 
 
 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
¶I.  "Time to Get Off the Couch" 
 
The independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz editorialized (5/3): "If 
Israel's citizens have anything to say about the conduct of their 
government during last summer's war, then they should vote with 
their feet and turn out tonight at the protest rally at [Tel Aviv's] 
Rabin Square and demand its resignation.... The protest rally 
demanding the resignation of the Prime and Defense Ministers -- and 
possibly of the entire cabinet because of its scandalous performance 
during the war -- will be a manifestation of free speech and of the 
power vested in each of us by Israeli democracy.... Our government 
went to war without knowing what it was doing.  Moreover, it failed 
to perform its minimal duty to try and find out what it was doing. 
It must not, therefore, be allowed to rectify its mistakes.  All it 
can do is apologize to its voters and give itself the boot.  Israel 
is in the throes of a real crisis.  It lacks leadership, deterrence 
and a political blueprint.  Its citizens have nothing but 
indictments against their elected leaders to look forward to.  Its 
cabinet cannot so much as keep and man the posts its implicated 
members are forced to abandon.  The seemingly anachronistic protest 
measure of a mass demonstration is, all things considered, the least 
that must be done.... All those who think the current leadership 
should go must take to the square tonight." 
 
II.  "Come and Demonstrate" 
 
Meretz-Yahad Party Chairman and Knesset Member Yossi Beilin and 
National Union-National Religious Party  Knesset Member Effie Eitam 
wrote in a joint page one article in the popular, pluralist Maariv 
(5/3): "We have never written a joint article.  Our approaches on 
the way Zionism should be fulfilled are diametrically opposed.  We 
are on either side of the fence on nearly every issue.... But we 
both fear for the future of Israeli society.  We both open our eyes 
wide in amazement at the behavior of the prime minister, in light of 
the Winograd Commission report.  We are both convinced that Olmert 
has to go, due to his responsibility for the major failure of the 
Second Lebanon War.  We will both do everything possible within the 
democratic rules of the game in order for this to happen.... Today 
will be the first test of the people's willingness to regain its 
standing as the sovereign in a democratic state, a first and small 
step of one evening, in which hundreds of thousands of the state's 
citizens will come to the city square to speak their piece.  This is 
a highly important test of the question whether the State of Israel 
is capable of learning the lessons and starting to rectify the 
failings revealed and described by the Winograd Commission.  We call 
upon every citizen, man and woman, no matter what their political 
position is, to come today and protect the life's breath of 
democracy: The public's right to influence its fate.  The people in 
the square are the ones who will allow the voice of the people to be 
heard within the walls of the collapsing stronghold of 'Ehudgrad.' 
This is a legal, moral and democratic step that compels us all. 
Many nations have known how to unite in moments when they identified 
a severe danger to the foundations of their democracy.  The refusal 
of the Olmert government to resign is such a formative moment.  We 
must all rise up and defend the foundations of our shared order, 
which allows us to disagree as well.  We will be there." 
 
III.  "Don't Go to the Square" 
 
Liberal op-ed writer Yael Paz-Melamed commented in Maariv (5/3): 
"This evening, in [Tel Aviv's] Rabin Square, where hundreds of 
thousands of people will apparently gather, Binyamin Netanyahu will 
enthrone himself as Israel's next prime minister.   And that is what 
will ultimately come out of the Winograd report.... In practice, it 
is a demonstration aimed at changing the government in Israel, and 
changing the government means the return of Bibi [Netanyahu] and the 
Likud.... And the Likud, for those who do not remember, is a right 
wing party, in some issues even an extreme right wing party, and 
from the entire report, this is what will remain:  The return of the 
right wing to power.  The elimination of any possibility of an 
arrangement with the Palestinians.  The failure to remove a single 
illegal settlement outpost.  The continuation of the settlement 
momentum.  Not to mention the proper management of the country.  I 
am not saying here that Ehud Olmert should not resign.... The public 
protest, however, which failed completely until the publication of 
the report, must not focus solely on the personal matter, despite 
the fact that this is the only thing that we as a public know how to 
do." 
 
IV.  "Not a Scaredy-Cat" 
 
Senior columnist Dan Margalit wrote in Maariv (5/3): "[Olmert] is 
assured... of losing either way.  If he listens to the Kadima 
members who seek to keep the government whole and leaves Livni in, 
he will have swallowed a bitter pill, which will wear out his 
strength.  Anyone will be able to manipulate him at will.  On the 
other hand, if he dismisses her, he will bear the responsibility for 
the greatest internal crisis that Kadima has known since the war. 
Livni will appear this evening at the mass demonstration in Rabin 
Square, and the inevitable move of Olmert's resignation will be 
accelerated.   He is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't." 
 
¶V.  "Another Missed Opportunity" 
 
Political parties correspondent Yossi Verter wrote on page one of 
Ha'aretz (5/3): "It is unpleasant to see such a senior minister 
finding her way amid tangled verbiage meant to get her off the hook 
with a vestige of self-respect.  Yitzhak Rabin said about Shimon 
Peres that leadership is not built on whining; by the same token, 
one can say about Livni that leadership is not built on cowardice. 
The partial Winograd report, which focused on the beginning of the 
Second Lebanon War and was released on Monday, could have been a 
turning point in Livni's meteoric career.  She had the fate of the 
government and of the Prime Minister in her hands.  If Livni had 
resigned the day after the report was released, it is reasonable to 
assume that Olmert would no longer be prime minister -- and Livni 
would have become the alternative.  Her resignation would have set 
off a snowball effect that would have led to Olmert's political 
death, or at least critical injury.... Knowing the vengeful Olmert, 
he won't let Livni get close to fixing anything.  He will drag her 
along here and there, and in a few days or a few weeks, he will 
perform a mercy killing. Politically speaking, of course.... 
[Anyway], come August, the government will have to face the greatest 
test of all: the final war report." 
 
VI.  "All-Talk Tzipi" 
 
Political parties correspondent Sima Kadmon wrote on page one of the 
mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot Aharonot (5/3): "Like a rabbi 
caught in the headlights, that is how Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni 
looked [on Wednesday].  Instead of continuing to run,  to quickly 
cross the road she had chosen, she suddenly stopped and froze in 
place.  Hesitated.  Panicked.  Unsure.  The problem is that the fate 
of such a hesitant rabbit can only be one: it is fated to be run 
over.  And that is what happened to Livni.... Perhaps for the first 
time since her meteoric political rise, her weakness was exposed. 
There will be those who say that her fear is her weakness.  Her 
inability to make decisions and take them all the way.  With her yes 
and no, her hot and cold, her tea and coffee. or in short: the 
Deputy Prime Minister does not have the stones.... An honest 
politician is definitely good news, but it is not enough to run a 
country." 
 
VII.  "Her Smallest Hour" 
 
Diplomatic correspondent Ben Caspit wrote on page one of the 
popular, pluralist Maariv (5/3): "On Wednesday the great white hope 
of Israeli politics was a pale, stammering, agonized, regretful 
hope.... It is possible that if Livni had been Israel's prime 
minister on July 12, 2006, we would have been spared the Winograd 
Commission.  But her behavior on Wednesday greatly reduced the 
chances that she will be IsraelQs prime minister in the near future. 
 Hesitancy has many facets, for better and for worse.  On Wednesday 
it was for worse.  Tzipi Livni's 'finest hour' was very small on 
Wednesday.... It can also be said in Livni's favor that she did what 
she did on Wednesday with the sense that this was an ethical, 
conscientious, worthy act.  She took the risk of being dismissed by 
Olmert.... What kind of distortion would it be for her to be the 
only one to resign, while all the others remain in place?   Is this 
what needs to be done now?  LivniQs problem is that the answer is 
positive.  As Israel's beacon of conscience and political 
cleanliness, that is what she should have done.  But failed to do." 
 
VIII.  "Compounding the Failures" 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized (5/3): 
"The [Winograd] Commission's unadorned and relentless criticisms of 
the government's actions leave no confusion as to its views: that 
the current leadership is unfit to govern. Its final report, 
expected this summer, will likely be even more critical, and, it can 
be presumed, will not shy away from explicitly recommending that 
Olmert resign.  The initial report, though, is already so scathing 
that it renders such 'personal recommendations' somewhat redundant. 
Even if the commission had been more explicit, it is hard to imagine 
a more devastating analysis preceding this conclusion.  If there is 
something puzzling about the commission's stance, it is its seeming 
faith that the same leaders it finds so lacking in a basic sense of 
responsibility would have sufficient integrity to draw their own 
conclusions and step down.  This faith now seems to have been, 
perhaps predictably, misplaced.... In this context, Foreign 
Minister's Tzipi Livni's stance is notably mystifying and 
discrediting.  Her public call on Olmert to resign cannot be squared 
with her decision to stay in the government in order to fix its 
failings.  If the government is fixable with Olmert at its helm, 
then why should he resign?.... The nation now desperately needs new 
leadership, so that the first steps on the long road to recovery can 
be taken." 
 
IX.  "Lessons of Winograd" 
 
Shlomo Avineri, Hebrew University Professor of Political Science and 
former director-general of the Foreign Ministry, wrote in The 
Jerusalem Post (5/3): "The [Winograd] Commission has castigated the 
Olmert-Peretz government for crossing this thin line on July 12, 
2006 in a reckless, unthinking and irresponsible way.  It is for 
this that both men should resign.  Going to war is always the 
ultimate test of political leadership.  It is the mark of 
sovereignty.  It should always be resorted to only as a last resort. 
 The leadership failed all these benchmarks.... By bringing this out 
very clearly, the Winograd Report, with all its justified restraint, 
sends a message to all of us, the sovereign people: Never again must 
Israel be led by people with no experience in security or defense 
matters.  This does not mean that only former generals qualify: 
Neither Shimon Peres nor Moshe Arens, who both served with 
distinction as ministers of defense, were military men, but they 
knew what security and defense were about.  The Olmert-Peretz team 
did not, and they should be relieved of responsibility for our 
security, our defense, and our future. " 
 
JONES