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R 141331Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY RIGA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4000
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000344 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ASEC PREL LG
SUBJECT: Latvia to hold July 7 referendum on security laws 
 
Ref: Riga 192 
 
¶1. Summary: Latvia's Central Election Commission (CEC) has announced 
that the necessary signatures in support of holding the referendum 
on amendments to national security laws were collected and the 
referendum will be held on 7 July 2007, the day President Vaira 
Vike-Freiberga's term of office expires. In early March, President 
Vaira Vike-Freiberga suspended amendments to the national security 
laws passed earlier by the Saeima (parliament) arguing that adoption 
of the amendments could result in abuse of power by the government 
and political forces over national security agencies (reftel). 
Although parliament has repealed the laws, the referendum process 
went forward as mandated by the constitution. While the opposition 
hopes to use the referendum to bring down the current government, 
there is no legal link between the two.  End summary. 
 
¶2. According to the CEC 214,966 citizens signed petitions to hold a 
referendum regarding amendments to national security laws (149,064 
signatures were required), following the President's unprecedented 
use of her constitutional authority to delay implementation of the 
laws for two months.  The CEC scheduled the referendum for July 7, 
the same day when the President's term in office expires.  This is 
also the last day the referendum could have been held.  CEC Chair 
Arnis Cimdars told us that the use of the maximum time permitted by 
law was needed to arrange for an off-cycle referendum like this. 
 
¶3. In order to be valid, half as many people as participated in the 
Saeima elections last October must participate.  Therefore, 453,730 
voters must cast ballots.  A simple majority is needed for the 
electorate to repeal the laws. 
 
¶4. Although the referendum will be held as required, the legal 
consequences are minimal.  Gunars Kusins, legal advisor to the 
Saeima, explained to us that Parliament had passed legislation, 
which the President has signed, which effectively repeals the laws 
in question.  According to Kusnis, the legislation passed says that 
if the required number of signatures are not gathered for a 
referendum, or the necessary numbers of voters do not participate in 
it, or if a majority does not vote for repeal of the laws, then the 
laws return to the text that existed in December, before all the 
controversy began.  Of course, if the referendum is valid and the 
majority votes for repeal, that will be the controlling action.  In 
that situation, parliament would be effectively barred from 
readopting the same amendments.  According to the Latvian 
constitution, the will of the people trumps the votes of their 
elected representatives. 
 
¶5. Although the legislation effectively nullifies the significance 
of the referendum, the opposition has wanted to imbue the vote with 
political consequences.  The New Era (JL) party was particularly 
active in calling people to participate in the signature drive and 
will be active in getting out the vote on July 7.  New Era Chairman 
Krisjanis Karins told emboff that the referendum drive has 
reenergized his party, which has been through difficult times 
internally of late, and predicted that the referendum would succeed 
and people would send a message to the government with their vote. 
Another New Era member of parliament went further, saying the 
government would be "shamed" into resigning following the outcome of 
the referendum.  The Russian-based opposition party Harmony Center 
has called for the government to step down over its mishandling of 
the security laws, but did not actively support the signature 
campaign, noting that Parliamentary action made it an unnecessary 
expenditure of funds. 
 
¶6. Not surprisingly, the government has been low key in its response 
and Prime Minister Kalvitis (People's Party) has been clear that the 
vote will be only about the security laws and not a referendum on 
the governing coalition. 
 
¶7. In interviews May 10 and 11, President Vike-Freiberga urged 
citizens to participate in the referendum and lamented that 
"political forces" have led to its scheduling on her last day in 
office, leaving her no time "to assess the results" and consider 
whether to dissolve parliament. 
 
¶8. Comment:  It is hard to imagine enough voters participating in 
the ballot.  July is the most popular month of vacations and 
Latvians spend the weekends in their country homes.  Additionally, 
the date of 7/7/07 is considered lucky and is overbooked for 
weddings. We believe that there is little chance that the required 
number of eligible voters (almost 2 times more than the number of 
people who participated in the signature collection drive over a 
four week period) would turn up for the referendum. Even if it was 
successful, the possibility that the ruling coalition would 
interpret a positive public vote as a call for resignation is 
extremely low. This is not a group moved by the argument of "shame." 
 The opposition runs the risk, though, of having their own words 
used against them.  An unsuccessful referendum would allow the 
ruling coalition to say that voters are satisfied with the 
coalition's work.  The President's interviews last week suggest that 
while she might have hoped to use the referendum to force a 
dissolution of parliament (which would require another referendum), 
she will not do so, despite the hopes of many in the opposition, NGO 
 
RIGA 00000344  002 OF 002 
 
 
community and the more liberal editorial pages. 
 
Waser