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Viewing cable 07PHNOMPENH631, AFTER THE APRIL 1 ELECTIONS: CAMBODIA'S POLITICAL

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07PHNOMPENH631 2007-05-07 09:08 2011-07-11 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Phnom Penh
VZCZCXRO7198
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHPF #0631/01 1270908
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 070908Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8394
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PHNOM PENH 000631 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CB
SUBJECT: AFTER THE APRIL 1 ELECTIONS: CAMBODIA'S POLITICAL 
PARTIES TAKE STOCK 
 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary.  Discussions with political party sources 
suggest that Cambodia's parties are reviewing their political 
futures and respective strategies going into the 2008 
national elections.  The Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) is focused on 
uniting the non-ruling parties to face off against the CPP in 
2008 but is leaving its options open; there are rumors that 
FUNCINPEC and the Ranariddh party are in discussions about a 
possible re-unification; the Ranariddh party continues to 
press for Ranariddh's return, and the CPP is quietly working 
to ensure that the ruling party loses no ground to the SRP in 
the lead up to the 2008 elections.  Meanwhile, the NEC has 
announced the official results of the April 1 commune 
elections, having dismissed most complaints.  The CPP won 
7,987 seats, garnering just over 61 percent of the popular 
vote (roughly the same percentage as 2002).  The SRP won 
2,671 seats capturing 25.5 percent of the popular vote -- a 
marked increase for the SRP compared with its 2002 results. 
The NRP and FUNCINPEC combined totaled roughly 6 percent, 
while the remaining votes were scattered among the many small 
parties or were disqualified.  End Summary. 
 
NEC Results Announced 
--------------------- 
 
2.  (U)  On April 25 and only one day behind the National 
Election Committee's schedule, the NEC announced the final 
results of the April 1 commune elections.  There were no 
surprises, as each party had collected preliminary results 
from their respective party monitors within a week of the 
election.  The CPP won 7,987 seats, garnering just over 61 
percent of the popular vote (roughly the same percentage as 
2002).  The SRP won 2,671 seats capturing 25.5 percent of the 
popular vote -- a marked increase for the SRP compared with 
its 2002 results.  The NRP and FUNCINPEC combined totaled 
roughly 6 percent.  While FUNCINPEC won two commune chief 
positions and the NRP won none, the total number of commune 
councilors won by FUNCINPEC (274) was less than that won by 
the NRP (425).  The CPP immediately recognized the results of 
the election while the SRP complained that the opposition 
would not accept the results due to the many irregularities 
and the NEC's rejection of all the SRP's complaints.  Voter 
turnout for the elections was approximately 65 percent, an 
all-time low for nationwide elections in Cambodia since 1993. 
 
 
NRP Looks Ahead; Royalists Consider Uniting 
------------------------------------------- 
 
3  (U)  In the aftermath of the elections, the parties have 
been analyzing the results and considering ways to strengthen 
their respective positions in advance of the national 
elections slated for July 2008.  Now that each party has a 
baseline of recent voter support as evidenced by the April 1 
results, all are looking to maximize their chances in 2008 -- 
for the CPP, the focus is on splitting the opposition and 
enforcing party discipline to keep CPP voters on side.  For 
the non-ruling parties, the theme of most discussions centers 
on the pros/cons of joining forces with either the CPP or 
other parties.  One party has already clarified its position. 
 The small royalist party, Sangkum Chietiniyum Front Party, 
of Prince Sisowath Thomico, announced its intention to merge 
with Ranariddh's party in an effort to unify the royalists; a 
congress is planned this month to formalize the arrangement, 
which has been welcomed by the NRP.  Ranariddh also has been 
in discussions with the SRP to form an alliance against the 
CPP, which Rainsy initially accepted but then indicated that 
his party might work just as easily with the CPP following 
the 2008 elections.  The apparent flip-flop was explained by 
SRP sources as a means by which the SRP would not openly 
confront the CPP, thereby preserving the safety of its 
activists.  Some SRP members assure us privately that Rainsy 
is adamant about reinvigorating an alliance of all opposition 
parties; one other SRP official, however, told us that Rainsy 
may indeed cut a deal with the CPP at some future point. 
 
4.  (SBU)  FUNCINPEC held a workshop following the election 
to survey the results of the commune council polling, which 
saw FUNCINPEC support drop to an all-time low -- even falling 
behind the NRP.  The April 21-22 seminar reportedly was a 
somber event, with 300 people attending.  Preceding the start 
of the workshop was news of the defection of FUNCINPEC MP Ly 
Thuch to the CPP, an exodus which many predicted would 
continue up to the 2008 elections.  Given the dismal showing 
of FUNCINPEC on April 1, sources within the party agree that 
most current FUNCINPEC MPs will likely move to either the CPP 
or SRP before the elections -- the two leading parties 
following April 1.  FUNCINPEC attendees at the workshop 
blamed internal party rifts, FUNCINPEC's unclear strategy, 
irregular contact between the national party headquarters and 
 
PHNOM PENH 00000631  002 OF 003 
 
 
the grassroots supporters, and the NEC's biased policies for 
the party's poor showing. 
 
5.  (SBU)  In response to Prince Ranariddh's suggestion that 
the royalists unite against the CPP, Minister for Rural 
Development and FUNCINPEC First VP Lu Lay Sreng publicly 
invited the Prince to return to FUNCINPEC with the title of 
honorary president -- an invitation that the Prince rejected 
prior to creating the Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP) in late 
2006.  Prince Ranariddh again rejected the invitation, and 
organized a meeting of followers in Malaysia recently, which 
some FUNCINPEC members attended.  Although the basis of the 
meeting was to brainstorm about ways for Ranariddh to return 
to Cambodia, discussions reportedly also centered on 
alliances with other parties -- the SRP, FUNCINPEC, and yes 
-- even a return to partnership with the CPP.  We understand 
that Lu Lay Sreng has also requested a face-to-face meeting 
with Ranariddh, which senior NRP officials are quietly trying 
to arrange. 
 
Fuzzy Math Gives SRP Ambitious Hopes for 2008 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU)  In an April 27 meeting with A/DCM, SRP Secretary 
General Mu Sochua complained that the National Election 
Committee rejected the SRP's election-related complaints or 
claimed that they more properly fell under the jurisdiction 
of the courts.  Most worrisome has been that three newly 
elected commune chiefs have had legal cases brought against 
them that the SRP believes are politically motivated.  Mu 
Sochua also complained that her request to discuss better 
cooperation between the SRP and the CPP on decentralization 
was met with disinterest by her CPP counterpart, Say Chhum. 
Rainsy went to see DPM Sok An, but PM Hun Sen later 
instructed Rainsy to send a letter to the Ministry of 
Interior, which has oversight for the implementation of the 
RGC's decentralization program.  Sar Kheng reportedly has 
agreed to meet with Rainsy on the opposition leader's return 
from Europe. 
 
7.  (SBU)  Sochua indicated that Rainsy's main goal is to see 
a unified opposition going into the 2008 elections.  Recent 
conversations with Kem Sokha have been productive, and she 
said that both Rainsy and Kem Sokha agreed to a "verbal 
ceasefire" and will not publicly attack one another while 
discussions continue.  The "Kem Sokha factor" in the 2008 
elections remains unclear, but ideally the SRP would like to 
have the former NGO leader inside the SRP tent, and not 
competing against it.  She said that Rainsy welcomed Prince 
Norodom Ranariddh's agreement to a united front, and noted 
that the Prince's absence from the country will have a 
negative effect on NRP support in 2008.  Asked about SRP 
prospects for continuing to gain support against the CPP, Mu 
Sochua said that Rainsy sees reason to believe that a united 
opposition in 2008 can win, given the 50 percent plus one 
rule.  She explained that following the 2002 commune 
elections, the CPP won about 61 percent of the popular vote 
-- not unlike this time.  In the 2003 national elections, 
however, the CPP's level of voter support dropped to 47 
percent.  She predicted that the 2008 national elections 
would see a similar lowering of vote support for the CPP, and 
if it dropped to only 47 percent, the CPP would be unable to 
form a government.  A uniting of all non-CPP parties could 
therefore win the elections if no one agreed to a coalition 
with the CPP, she argued. 
 
8.  (SBU)  Sochua defended the notion that support for the 
CPP would drop substantially for the 2008 election because 
she claimed the fundamental nature of the commune and 
national elections is different.  For the commune elections, 
she argued, there is more local pressure on people to vote 
for the CPP as the grassroots network of CPP officials is so 
strong and some local CPP officials are admittedly popular. 
There are consequences if the CPP does not win at the local 
level and therefore the pressure to support the ruling party 
is much stronger in the communes.  However, for the national 
elections, the average CPP voter does not necessarily 
identify with the senior leaders and can change his/her vote 
if unhappy with national policies.  She noted that many CPP 
voters are against the government's policies on land grabbing 
and the poor state of the judiciary.  The SRP Secretary 
General believes that as happened in 2003, voter support for 
the CPP will dip during the national elections, and a strong 
opposition can do well -- well enough to win if all the 
non-ruling parties hold together. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
 
PHNOM PENH 00000631  003 OF 003 
 
 
9.  (SBU)  The political buzz and maneuvering in the 
aftermath of the April 1 elections is in high pitch. 
Initially, the opposition parties were all talking of a 
unified democratic front.  More recently, we have heard that 
everyone is talking about a possible alliance with the CPP. 
Even Rainsy reportedly is unsure that if he did win, he could 
govern the country -- and is weighing the prospect of a 
possible partnership with the CPP.  While the other 
non-ruling parties have parroted the same talking points 
about the need to form a united political front against the 
CPP, only the inconsequential Sangkum party of Prince Thomico 
has taken any tangible steps toward realizing that goal.  All 
the others appear to be weighing their options before 
committing themselves to a particular path.  Most agree, 
however, that any united front will need to announce itself 
well enough in advance of election day if such a front is to 
be successful in convincing voters that it can win.  The 
six-month mark before the elections (i.e., February 2008) 
seems to be the time when all sources agree that the serious 
dealing will take place.  However, while all the parties have 
talked tough about the need to unite, all are also apparently 
considering how they might join a CPP-led government -- 
making it clear that a unified opposition will not be any 
easier to achieve in 2008 than it was in 2003 or any earlier 
period.  End Comment. 
 
 
 
MUSSOMELI