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DE RUEHFR #1784/01 1241403
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 041403Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6947
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHC/DEPARTMENT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001784 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, 
AND EB 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: ELECTION EVE: SARKOZY EXTENDS HIS LEAD GOING INTO 
SECOND-ROUND FINAL MAY 6 
 
REF: A. (A) PARIS 1611 AND PREVIOUS 
 
     ¶B. (B) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY SIPRNET REPORT FOR MAY 4 
     ¶C. 2007 AND PREVIOUS 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1. (U) On the eve of the run-off election between former 
Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy and Poitou-Charentes Region 
President Segolene Royal, France's electorate is looking 
forward -- though not without some apprehension -- to the 
choice of direction for France that it will make in electing 
a new president.  In the campaign's final 48 hours there is a 
gathering sense that the French are accepting that Nicolas 
Sarkozy will be their next president.  The public's reaction 
to the widely watched televised debate May 2 between Sarkozy 
and Royal has bolstered Sarkozy's position as the 
front-runner.  In the most recent polls of France's 6 major 
polling organizations, Sarkozy leads with between 54.5 and 52 
percent of the vote; Royal trails with between 45.5 and 48 
percent of the vote.  All of the factors that might upset 
this expected result are trending Sarkozy's way.  End Summary. 
 
EXITED, AND FEARFUL, AT THE PROSPECT OF CHANGE 
--------------------------------------------- - 
¶2.  (U)  There is a palpable sense of expectation -- but also 
some apprehension -- across France as a highly motivated 
electorate readies to choose France's president for the next 
five years on May 6.  Opinion surveys show that some 90 
percent of the French are interested in the election and 
attentive to how the result might affect their lives.  The 
heady prospect of imminent change, which most in France admit 
is long overdue, is tempered by anxiety among many about what 
a new direction in social and economic policy might mean for 
their lives. 
 
TWO VISIONS OF HOW TO LEAD CHANGE 
--------------------------------- 
¶3. (U)  The choice between Sarkozy and Royal is one between 
two conceptions of how to devise policies for change and 
implement them.  Throughout the campaign, Segolene Royal has 
presented herself as the candidate of change through 
"participatory democracy."  She has promised continuous 
dialog with citizens and representative organizations, 
promised a referendum on far-reaching constitutional reforms, 
and vowed continuous accountability in her exercise of power. 
 She has highlighted that she is "a mother who has raised 
four children," who understands the trials of ordinary 
people's lives, and will bring a "just order" to French 
society.  "Change without brutality" is Royal's way of 
characterizing her vision for change through inclusive 
negotiation with all stakeholders. 
 
¶4. (U) Nicolas Sarkozy has stressed his "passion for action" 
and underlined the importance of not "disappointing the 
people again" by failing to keep campaign promises.  Sarkozy 
has laid out a far-reaching reform program, replete with 
specific policy proposals, often with timelines for achieving 
promised results.  In essence, Sarkozy is asking the voters 
for a mandate to implement reforms he has laid out in 
advance.  Sarkozy has regularly contrasted his "politics of 
results" with Royal's "politics of immobilism." 
 
SARKOZY WINS DEBATE THAT 
------------------------ 
HIGHLIGHTED THIS DIFFERENCE 
--------------------------- 
¶5. (U) The May 2 face-to-face debate between Sarkozy and 
Royal was seen by over 20 million people in France, 
essentially half the country's registered voters.  The debate 
starkly exhibited the differences between the two candidates. 
 Royal called for a "society of solidarity," that would 
unleash the ingenuity and energy of the French, as all 
advanced together, inclusively countering the effects of 
competition and inequality.  Sarkozy argued for the 
reasonableness of his proposals, given the means at the 
government's disposal for tackling problems, and stressed his 
commitment to implementing his specific proposals if elected. 
 The public's verdict is that Sarkozy won, projecting more 
credibility on the key issues of law-and-order, control of 
immigration and management of the economy, as well projecting 
the more confidence-inspiring, "presidential" figure. 
 
SARKOZY WIDENS HIS LEAD 
 
PARIS 00001784  002 OF 002 
 
 
----------------------- 
¶6. (U) Sarkozy has led in all polls of second-round voter 
intentions since the campaign began in January.  In four 
polls taken by major polling firms after May 2's debate, 
Sarkozy has widened his lead over Royal compared to these 
same firms' soundings of the week before.  These are among 
the last polls that will be published before the "official" 
campaign ends at midnight Friday, May 4.  The polls published 
by France's mainline polling organizations just before the 
first-round of the election two weeks ago proved very 
accurate. 
 
¶7.  (U) According to the IPSOS polling organization, Sarkozy 
now enjoys a 54 to 46 percent advantage over Royal in second 
round voter intentions (respectively, up half a point for 
Sarkozy compared to the IPSOS poll of a week ago).  SOFRES 
reports Sarkozy with a 54.5 percent lead over Royal,s 45.5 
percent (the prior SOFRES poll showed Sarkozy,s lead at 52.0 
percent).  The latest CSA survey shows Sarkozy with a 53 to 
47 percent advantage (compared to this survey's prior 
sounding of 52 to 48 percent).  Finally the LH2 polling 
organization's survey shows Sarkozy winning by a 54 to 46 
percent margin (up yet again for Sarkozy from the prior LH2 
poll's 52 percent figure).  Those who believe in polls have 
little doubt about the outcome of this election. 
 
¶8. (U) On May 4, the campaign's last day, Royal for the first 
time called Sarkozy "dangerous," charging that France risked 
social violence if he is elected.  Royal's resort to the fear 
factor can be seen as a desperate attempt to spark a 
last-minute reversal of fortune. 
 
RESULTS ANNOUNCED AT 8 P.M. PARIS TIME MAY 6 
-------------------------------------------- 
¶9.  (U) At 8 P.M. Paris time on the evening of May 6, 
immediately after all polls close, mainstream media will 
disseminate the first estimate of the election results.  This 
unofficial result is normally very accurate, except in the 
case of a close race.  The Interior Ministry is expected to 
begin posting the official local results on its website at 
about 9 P.M.  All results are expected to have been tallied 
and posted by 3 A.M. the next morning.  The Interior Ministry 
will also disseminate, soon after 8 P.M., a tally of results 
from a group of selected polling places that model the 
electorate at large.  The Interior Ministry's website address 
is: http://www.interieur.gouv.fr. 
Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm 
 
STAPLETON