VZCZCXRO6577
RR RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #2239/01 1451003
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 251003Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9956
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 002239 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSETIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF A/S FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR SO
SUBJECT:  MEETING WITH SOMALI FOREIGN MINISTER 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary.  In a meeting with Somalia's Foreign 
Minister, the Ambassador warned that time is running out 
for genuine reconciliation.  The US will not support a 
conference that does not offer political reconciliation. 
Without political reconciliation, clan war will resume. 
The TFG needs to keep us better informed.  The Foreign 
Minister asked for patience saying that Somalis will talk 
through their problems.  He believed that the 
reconciliation conference would begin on time and he broke 
down how the delegates would be distributed among the 
clans.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  The Ambassador met with new Somali Foreign 
Minister Hussein Elabe Fahiye and Somali Ambassador to 
Kenya Mohamed Ali Nur (Americo) at his residence on May 24. 
Poloff attended as note taker. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  After quickly dispensing with opening 
pleasantries, the Ambassador noted that: 
 
--TFG President Yusuf's meetings with the Hawiye/Ayr and 
other opposition sub-clans did not seem to be producing 
meaningful results; 
 
--the National Reconciliation Congress (NRC) was hopelessly 
ill-prepared to begin June 14 as scheduled, except, perhaps 
for an opening ceremony; and, 
 
--time is running out. 
 
The Ambassador warned that the TFG had not won a decisive 
military victory in Mogadishu in April.  Al Shabaab and 
other radicals were still in Somalia and were regrouping. 
They probably would be in a position to go on the offensive 
within a few months.  The only hope Somalia had to avoid a 
protracted, bloody insurgency was a successful National 
Reconciliation Congress that produced real power sharing 
that will marginalize the radicals.  To reassure the clans 
and sub-clans that the Congress will address political--not 
just social--reconciliation, the National Governance and 
Reconciliation Committee (NGRC) under Chairman Ali Mahdi 
Mohamed must immediately publish a Congress agenda 
unambiguously announcing that power sharing will be on the 
table. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Foreign Minister Elabe assured the Ambassador 
that the TFG was committed to an all-inclusive Congress. 
He said that it would be difficult to represent all eight 
million Somalis but that the independent NGRC was working 
toward equitable clan representation based on the 4.5 power 
sharing formula, which was now all but sacred to Somalis. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  The Ambassador advised the Foreign Minister that 
the United States would not contribute financing to an NRC 
that was not credible, that did not address the political 
grievances of the disaffected clans and sub-clans.  He let 
Elabe know that sub-clan representatives, including the 
Ary, are talking to us about events in Mogadishu, including 
their meetings with President Yusuf.  "We won't be fooled," 
he stated. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Ambassador Nur interjected his view that the Ayr 
were using the media to gain political advantage and that 
to cater to them would encourage other clans and sub-clans 
to engage in violence against the TFG. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  The Ambassador stated that various sub-clan 
representatives were keeping us informed and urged that the 
TFG do more to keep us informed of the state of play so 
that we can more effectively coordinate efforts.  He 
emphasized that the Congress could not succeed without the 
support of the Hawiye sub-clans, who will also see the NRC 
as the last chance to salvage Somalia.  He reminded both 
Elabe and Nur that the clan violence of March and April 
(fanned by radical Islamists) arose from a feeling of 
defensiveness when weapons confiscations began and from 
exclusion from genuine political power sharing.  Islamic 
Courts radicals and terrorists seek to exploit clan 
violence in order to develop a full-blown insurgency.  If 
the NRC did not redress the grievances, fighting would 
erupt again.  The TFG must reach out to these disaffected 
sub-clans, not marginalize them. 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Foreign Minister Elabe stated that Somalia's 
problems used to be country-wide but that they were now 
confined essentially to Mogadishu.  He reiterated that the 
 
NAIROBI 00002239  002 OF 002 
 
 
NGRC was an independent body trying to assure that all 
clans and sub-clans were properly represented.  He pleaded 
that the NRC be allowed to go forward without interference. 
He asked that we and the international community give the 
Congress a chance because Somalis will resolve their 
differences face-to-face as they have done for centuries. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  The Ambassador again stated that the NRC was 
Somalia's last chance to avoid an all-out conflict.  He 
again urged the TFG to keep us informed, noting that we 
might be able to assist in pressing key sub-clans to be 
responsive to genuine TFG offers. 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  Elabe indicated understanding and again pleaded 
for patience as the reconciliation process moves forward. 
He opined that the NRC would begin, at least nominally, on 
June 14 as scheduled and stated that it will be comprised 
of 1,325 delegates:  250 from each of the four major clans; 
125 from the combined smaller clans; 100 from the diaspora 
(which will not be clan-based), and 100 in reserve to 
address potential delegate problems. 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  Bio note.  Elabe is a Dir/Gudabirse.  He speaks 
fluent and intelligible English, and he attended Eastern 
Michigan University from 1960 to 1963.  He appears to be in 
his late 60s, seems to be in reasonable health, and wears 
glasses. 
 
Ranneberger