VZCZCXRO7525
RR RUEHROV
DE RUEHNR #1948/01 1271308
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 071308Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9496
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001948 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF/E AND INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KE PINR PHUM PGOV SOCI
SUBJECT: POLITICS IN KISII LAND 
 
REF: A. NAIROBI 321 
     ¶B. 06 NAIROBI 5393 
 
¶1.  Summary:  The Kisii community, accounting for four 
percent of Kenya's population, have been loyal to FORD-People 
party baron Simeon Nyachae, who supports the Kibaki 
administration.  Now that Nyachae has announced his 
retirement from politics, opposition politicians are eyeing 
the Kisii vote.  Widespread dissatisfaction with government 
services in the district gives the opposition an opportunity 
to pick up four percent of the national vote that had 
previously been in Kibaki's column.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. Simeon Nyachae, Minister of Roads and Chairman of the 
pro-government FORD-People party, has declared his intent to 
retire from politics effective later this year given health 
concerns (he is 75 years old).  FORD-People completely 
dominates the political landscape of Kisii district in Nyanza 
Province, located in western Kenya on the shores of Lake 
Victoria.  The district is home to the Kisii (or Gusii) 
people, a Bantu ethnic group that comprises about four 
percent of Kenya's population.  All 10 Members of Parliament 
(MPs) from the densely populated district represent 
FORD-People.  The party splintered from FORD-Asili in 1997, 
which in turn is an offshoot of FORD (Forum for the 
Restoration of Democracy).  Nyachae joined FORD-People in 
1998 after falling out of favor with then-President Moi.  His 
astute political mobilization tactics created a Kisii voting 
block that increased FORD-People's representation in 
parliament from three to ten, but also removed any claim of 
the party to have a national character. 
 
¶3. Nyachae,s leadership of the party has been described as 
overbearing and dictatorial, allowing little room for dissent 
or challenge to his tight political control.  But there are 
signs that Nyachae,s hold on the Kisii community may be 
slipping.  Despite his strong advocacy throughout 2005 for 
the government sponsored draft constitution, the majority of 
Kisii voters rejected the draft in the November 2005 national 
referendum, including voters in his own constituency.  While 
publicly stating that he will not formally ally FORD-People 
with NARC-K (Kibaki's likely party for the December 2007 
General Election), Nyachae and his party are firmly in the 
pro-government camp.  Recently, however, Nyachae has faced 
competition within the Kisii community for representing the 
government.  Some pro-NARC-K campaigners are seeking to 
convince Kisii voters the NARC-K ticket is the way to go, 
especially given Nyachae's proclaimed retirement intentions. 
 
¶4.  In distinction to their firmly opposition-oriented Nyanza 
Province neighbors, the Luos, the Kisii community tends to 
favor the Kibaki government.  Nyanza Province's population is 
overwhelmingly Luo, which is Kenya's largest Nilotic ethnic 
group.  As a Bantu ethnic group, the Kisii have more cultural 
and linguistic affinities with Kibaki's Kikuyu community than 
they do with their Luo neighbors, and so ten   d to support 
the President.  In Kenyan politics, factors of ethnic 
identity matter a great deal (see reftels).  That said, 
dissatisfaction with the delivery of government services and 
unmet infrastructure promises have opened a window of 
opportunity among the Kisii electorate for the opposition 
ODM-K coalition.  The Principal District Officer for Kisii 
explained to poloff that the national level economic growth 
rate of six percent has not resulted in improvements in the 
lives of ordinary Kisiis.  Despite improved access to 
education, he said, few would report that they are better off 
now than they were in 2002 when the Kibaki administration 
came to power. 
 
¶5.  Although increased access to education is among Kibaki's 
top re-election campaign themes, the Kisii District Education 
Officer (DEO) emphasized to poloff that this line does not 
resonate in the district due to the deplorable state of 
education in Kisii.  The DEO explained that students score at 
the bottom on the national exam.  He reported an acute lack 
of teachers and poor infrastructure, in both absolute terms 
and relative to other districts.  He stated that there is 
currently a shortfall of 900 teachers to absorb the increase 
in students attending primary school.  Seventy percent of 
rural schools in the district lack most essential 
infrastructure (classrooms, desks, toilets, etc.). 
 
¶6.  Given Nyachae's announced retirement plans and widespread 
discontent in the district with the government, ODM-K 
campaigners have achieved the previously unthinkable: 
campaigning in the district.  In previous years, parties 
other than FORD-People were prevented from campaigning in 
Kisii by violent intimidation from Nyachae supporters. 
Nyachae recently came under fire from Kisii ODM-K and NARC-K 
supporters for remarks deemed intolerant and undemocratic, 
 
NAIROBI 00001948  002 OF 002 
 
 
when he stated that parliamentary aspirants must join 
FORD-People if they wish to contest the coming elections in 
the district.  These new challenges to his supreme control of 
the region may have contributed to his decision to withdrawal 
from politics. 
 
Comment: The "Kisii 4 percent" is up for Grabs 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶7. Nyachae,s announcement of his intent to retire may be 
genuinely related to his ailing health, may be an attempt to 
avoid the humiliation of losing Kisii to ODM-K, or may even, 
as some allege, be a ploy to drum up support for his and 
FORD-People,s continued role in national politics.  Since 
his announcement, his allies and supporters have expressed 
disbelief, and are calling for supporters to urge Nyachae 
back.  Should he indeed leave the stage, this would certainly 
loosen the hold of FORD-People on Kisii politics, making his 
protgs political orphans.  A significant realignment of 
party loyalties in the district is a likely result.  In a 
hotly contested presidential election, four percent is well 
worth fighting over.  The Kisii are likely to receive many 
political suitors in the coming months. End Comment. 
 
Background on Kisii District 
---------------------------- 
 
¶8. Located in Nyanza Province, southwestern Kenya, Kisii 
District is predominantly populated by members of the Kisii 
(Gusii) community, a Bantu ethnic group.  The region is a 
rich agricultural area with a highland equatorial climate 
receiving ample rainfall.  The district is hilly, very 
densely populated, with land-poor farmers terracing steep 
hill sides, thereby contributing to a significant erosion 
problem.  Tea is the major cash crop for the district.  Other 
important crops are bananas, coffee, pyrethrum and sugar 
cane.  The area is also renowned for its lucrative soap stone 
quarries and brick making industries.  The district capital 
is Kisii Town; estimated population: 120,000.  Strategically 
located on the busy Kenya-Tanzania highway, with good road 
access to Kericho (and a restoration of the Kisii-Kilgoris 
road planned), Kisii town is the economic and transportation 
hub for the region.  A visit to the town on a market day 
revealed the main street bustling with traders, both in 
agricultural products and commercial goods. 
 
Biographical Portrait of Simeon Nyachae 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. Born 6 February 1932 in Kisii District to the powerful 
British-appointed Paramount Chief of the Kisii.  Educated in 
the U.K.  Entered the colonial civil service in 1960 as a 
District Officer for Kangundo Division.  He rose through the 
ranks of the provincial administration, serving as Provincial 
Commissioner, and later appointed by President Moi as Chief 
Secretary for the Kenyan Civil Service (1984-87).  Upon 
 
SIPDIS 
retirement from his successful career in the civil service, 
making him a prominent public figure among the Kisii 
community, he entered politics in 1992, representing 
Nyaribari Chache constituency on a KANU ticket.  He served as 
Minister of Agriculture 1992-97 and Minister of Finance 
1997-98.  After he publicly declared the government bankrupt, 
Moi transferred him from Finance to the Minister of Industry. 
 Nyachae declined the appointment and so fell out with Moi. 
He quit government in 1998, joining FORD-People, which was 
then an opposition party. 
 
¶10. Nyachae ran for President in 2002 on a FORD-people 
ticket, but was defeated by Kibaki, coming in third place out 
of a field of five.  He garnered 5.8 percent of the national 
vote, thus attracting some voters outside his Kisii commuity. 
 Nyachae,s political skills played a role in his inclusion 
in the cabinet, as Minister of Energy, following Kibaki,s 
2004 cabinet reshuffle when the President reached out to 
opposition politicians to form the Government of National 
Unity.  Nyachae was appointed to replace Raila Odinga as 
Minister of Roads and Public Works in the next cabinet 
reshuffle which followed the government's defeat in the 
national referendum on the draft constitution.  Nyachae is 
enormously rich, with wide-ranging business interests 
throughout Kenya. He has four wives and more than 20 children. 
RANNEBERGER