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RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 4685
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 2025
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 2231
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UNCLAS NAIROBI 001907 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL KDEM PGOV KE
SUBJECT: NURTURING DEMOCRACY -- AMBASSADOR'S VISIT TO 
NYANZA AND WESTERN PROVINCES 
 
REF: A. NAIROBI 1830 
     ¶B. NAIROBI 321 
     ¶C. NARIOBI 1789 
     ¶D. NAIROBI 1603 
 
¶1. Summary.  During a four-day trip to Nyanza and Western 
Provinces (in western Kenyan), the Ambassador talked with a 
wide cross-section of Kenyans about the state of democracy in 
the country, and about the importance of an inclusive, fair, 
and transparent electoral process.  Although rich in 
resources, these areas have been marginalized due to the 
region's long-standing identification with opposition 
politics.  Ordinary Kenyans, elected officials, and career 
civil servants nevertheless acknowledged that there has been 
significant democratic progress since the 2002 elections. 
Town hall meetings with thousands of Kenyans provided unique 
opportunities for discussion.  Regardless of their political 
or ethnic affiliations, people are enthusiastic about the 
national elections set for later this year.  As demonstrated 
during town hall meetings with university students, youth are 
an emerging force that will accelerate the pace of change. 
Tribalism, however, remains a dominant factor in politics. 
U.S. engagement through development programs, PEPFAR, the 
Centers for Disease Control, and Walter Reed is having a 
substantial impact to combat poverty, HIV/AIDS, and malaria 
(with Nyanza having the highest rates).  The Ambassador also 
delivered the U.S. message with respect to the elections and 
the U.S.-Kenyan partnership during media interviews.  The 
Ambassador called on Senator Obama's grandmother, who is 
doing well at her home in Siaya, Nyanza.  End summary. 
 
¶2. The Ambassador, accompanied by a small Mission team, 
visited Nyanza and Western provinces during April 22-25.  The 
purposes were familiarization; to take the pulse of these 
politically important communities in the lead-up to the 
national elections at the end of this year; and to deliver a 
clear message to all interlocutors regarding the need for a 
transparent, fair, and inclusive electoral process. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Rich, but Poor - the Impact of Marginalization 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶3. With the long rains underway, these provinces were richly 
green and their agricultural potential was evident.  The 
region has other important resources, particularly Lake 
Victoria.  However, the lushness of the countryside and 
beauty of the Lake - showcased during a long cruise on a 30 
year old ferry - belie the fact that Nyanza is one of the 
poorest areas of Kenya, with the country's highest provincial 
rates of poverty, HIV/AIDS, and malaria.  The Luo and Kisii 
communities dominate Nyanza province, while the Luhya 
dominate Western province.  Opposition politician Raila 
Odinga, a Luo, has virtually complete Luo support.  The Luhya 
and Kisii often act as swing voters, but the Luhya are not 
monolithic. (Ref A)  Marginalization of Nyanza began soon 
after independence when Kenya's first President broke with 
then Vice President and prominent Luo leader Oginga Odinga. 
Nyanza's  estrangement from the central government continued 
when the Odinga political dynasty led the Luo to closely 
identify with opposition politics which continues to this 
day. (Ref B and C) Western and Nyanza provinces are largely 
Christian, although mosques are occasionally seen, as well as 
a Hindu temple in Kisumu, reflecting the significant South 
Asian origins of the population there.  These provinces have 
generally not been affected by the kind of tribal clashes 
that have plagued other areas.  A visit to the memorial on 
Rusinga Island to Tom Mboya, a prominent trade unionist and 
opposition politician who was assassinated in 1969, testifies 
to the history of political violence in Kenya (despite the 
fact that there have been no coups and the country has proved 
to be one of the most stable in Africa). 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Evidence of Change - 
Meetings with Government and Elected Officials 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶4. Meetings with government officials in Nyanza and Western 
provinces demonstrated something that one tends to find 
throughout Kenya:  a fairly striking degree of 
professionalism and competence, and an apparent appreciation 
of their responsibilities in the country's still new 
democracy.  The administrators are part of the career civil 
 
service and are generally not from the areas in which they 
are assigned.  The assistant district  commissioner for Kisii 
district (Nyanza province), for example, emphasized the 
importance of combating tribalism.  He talked about the 
government's efforts to register voters.  He also noted that 
the government is following through on the commitment 
President Kibaki announced last fall to ensure that women 
represent one-third of all new government hires.  One hundred 
of three hundred provincial and district officers appointed 
in January are women, he said.  He acknowledged the cultural 
bias against the participation of women in politics, but said 
that the government is committed to overcoming this 
traditional discrimination.  He asked for support for efforts 
to combat female genital mutilation. 
 
¶5. In Kakamega the provincial commissioner for Western 
province also discussed efforts to combat tribalism.  He was 
particularly focused on this given the proximity of the 
violence occurring in the Mt. Elgon area. (Ref D)  On a more 
positive note, he was justifiably proud of the government's 
efforts to preserve 14,000 hectares of Kakamega forest, the 
last remaining tropical rain forest in Kenya.  The assistant 
district commissioner of Vihiga 
district (Western Province) is focused on empowering women 
and echoed the statements of the other officials on their 
responsibility to ensure a fair and transparent electoral 
process. 
 
¶6. The deputy provincial commissioner for Nyanza province in 
Kisumu, the capital of Nyanza, was a particularly impressive 
woman.  She described government training she had received 
that emphasized the need to see citizens as customers who 
must be dealt with fairly regardless of their tribal 
affiliation. "The distinction between government and politics 
is something new since 2002," she said.  Elected mayors in 
the region sounded similar notes.  The mayor of Kakamega is 
from the governing NARC coalition, but the city councilors 
represent different parties. 
 
¶7. In a Nyanza constituency, the government is in the middle 
of an intense road-building effort in order to bolster the 
election prospects for Foreign Minister Tuju, a Luo who has 
been loyal to the government, despite his LDP colleagues (and 
fellow Luos) falling out with the government.  The fact that 
he has been able to deliver may well get him re-elected to 
Parliament, despite wide-spread Luo support for the 
opposition.  The female mayor of 
Kisumu, an opposition stronghold, was harsher about the 
government's intentional marginalization of her city.  She 
was nevertheless optimistic that Kenyan democracy will move 
in a positive direction, and confidently predicted the 
election of the first woman president in 2018.  The Roman 
Catholic bishop of Nyanza also maintained that there has been 
significant positive change in Kenya since the 2002 
elections.  He sees indications that Kenyans are becoming 
more aware of the pitfalls of tribal politics. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Town Hall Meetings - Ordinary Kenyans Speak Out 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶8. The Ambassador held a number of town hall-style meetings 
with ordinary Kenyans.  A consistent theme in these 
discussions was the determination of Kenyan voters to 
participate in the electoral process.  Market ladies, 
encountered during a walk through Kisumu's main market, said 
that they were registered to vote and planning "to vote for a 
change."  Despite the perceived shortchanging of their 
communities, most acknowledged that progress has been made 
since 2002.  While some people claimed that they would vote 
for the best candidate regardless of his tribal affiliation 
(opposition politician Kalonzo Musyoka's (an ethnic Kamba) 
name was frequently mentioned), the prevailing impression was 
that tribal affiliation will be the dominating factor. 
 
¶9. In general, two-thirds or more of those in the town hall 
meetings claimed to be registered to vote (thus apparently 
countering claims made by the opposition that Nyanza has been 
discriminated against in terms of registration because of its 
opposition sympathies).  Even younger participants in the 
town hall discussions admitted that they would follow a 
tribal approach to the elections.  One young Luo said 
"whether he can win or not, we must stick with Raila Odinga 
(the dominant Luo politician and one of the leading 
 
opposition candidates) as the representative of our 
community." (Note: Ethnic affiliation will continue to 
influence voters' decisions.  There is a pattern of ethnic 
groups benefiting from over representation in administrations 
headed by their members, such as the Kikuyu under Presidents 
Kenyatta and Kibaki and the Kalenjins under Moi.  This serves 
to reinforce the perception by those groups who have not 
enjoyed the government's largesse that only by electing one 
of your own to power will a community truly benefit from 
government attention and distribution of resources. (Ref C) 
In fact, this lesson was reinforced by Kibaki's perceived 
betrayal of the Luo community by his failure to honor a 
pre-election power-sharing agreement which would have 
benefited the Luo community and the perception that Kibaki's 
ethnic Kikuyu occupy the choice positions within government 
and state owned enterprises.  Given this backdrop, it is not 
difficult to understand why many of Kenya's electorate will 
be swayed by tribal considerations. End note.) 
 
¶10. In a town hall meeting with a group of community leaders 
on predominately Luo Rusinga Island, in Lake Victoria, they 
echoed the sentiments expressed in other town hall meetings 
that the political climate is much more tolerant and open 
than it was before 2002.  While commenting that "tribalism is 
a killer disease," one elder then lamented "but tribalism is 
very deep-rooted and may stand in the way of electing a 
leader with vision."  He expected Luos to follow Raila Odinga 
based on tribal solidarity.  The community leaders recognized 
that expanding education and eradicating poverty are key to 
diminishing tribalism. 
 
¶11. Community leaders in Kisumu pointed out that the 
marginalization of the area reinforces tribalism.  Although 
the airport at Kisumu was the first in Kenya, it has been 
neglected.  The road network is in appalling condition (as 
the U.S. Mission team verified during long drives between 
towns).  They also tended to confirm that the Kenyan civil 
service has been more professional since 2002.  Industry in 
Nyanza province has collapsed and Kisumu struggles to survive 
despite having been designated a Millennium Development City. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Youth and Universities - Harbingers of Change 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶12. Town hall meetings conducted at two universities were 
extremely positive events that reaffirmed hope about the 
future of democracy in Kenya.  Masinde Muliro University in 
Kakamega focuses on science and technology.  A Peace Corps 
volunteer helps a Kenyan NGO that is assisting with computer 
training.  A U.S. business has opened a call center on the 
grounds of the university that now employs 25 people, but is 
planned to expand to 1,000.  In the town hall meetings with 
Kenyans, they initially had to be coaxed to speak up.  One 
observer explained that this was due to the fact that they 
were not accustomed to having such give-and-take exchanges 
with officials.  By contrast, university students 
enthusiastically participated,  demonstrating in the process 
the generational transition that will accelerate change in 
Kenya.  In a town hall meeting with 150 students, many 
emphasized the need to focus on a vision for the nation that 
rises above tribalism.  The students represented a broad 
cross-section of Kenya's ethnic communities.  The majority 
pointed to empty promises by those who had been elected in 
2002 and expressed support for the opposition.  Similar 
sentiments were expressed at Maseno University, near Kisumu, 
during a very lively town hall meeting with over 1,000 
students, some which was covered on national television. The 
students talked about lack of progress on corruption, the 
challenge of tribalism, and the lack of government action in 
key economic areas.  The students were very well-informed, 
asking questions, among others, on UNSC reform, climate 
change, the World Bank, and the role of the Kenyans resident 
in the U.S. 
 
------------------------------- 
U.S. and Other Donor Engagement 
------------------------------- 
 
¶13. A common theme in many encounters was the predictable 
request for assistance.  Yet, at the same time, there was an 
appreciation for the tremendous amount that the U.S. is 
already doing and a realistic acknowledgment that resources 
are limited.  Visits to a number of projects testified to the 
 
scope of U.S. involvement.  Several Ambassador's Self-Help 
Fund projects are improving communities and empowering 
women's groups, including one that has increased access to 
drinking water and one that has assisted with start-up of a 
poultry feed production business.  The Department of 
Agriculture is implementing a USD 4 million Title II 
monetization project that is helping hundreds of farmers 
increase production and earnings through collective 
marketing.  Nearby, USAID is implementing a famine relief 
cassava cultivation project. The U.S. is engaged in a myriad 
of other activities including, for example, helping support 
development of an ice factory along Lake Victoria to 
facilitate the marketing of fish. 
 
¶14. The World Bank and various donors are also heavily 
engaged in Nyanza province.  The Mission team visited one of 
the Millennium Challenge Villages, an off-shoot of the UN's 
Millennium Development Goals.  The village is a 
conglomeration of homesteads in an area called Sauri that 
encompasses about 60,000 people.  The project is supported by 
Columbia University's Earth Institute headed by Jeffrey 
Sachs, and by the Millennium Promise Foundation supported by 
Gates and Soros.  The village is achieving yields of between 
5 and 6 metric tons of maize per hectare, contrasted with an 
average of 2 tons in the rest of the country.  Support for 
the village is based on a holistic development concept, so 
health, education, agriculture, water, and infrastructure are 
all targeted. 
 
¶15. Evidence of the extensive U.S. efforts to fight HIV/AIDS 
through PEPFAR and related programs was everywhere.  Numerous 
voluntary counseling and testing centers were seen as well as 
awareness advertisements.  The Peace Corps is supporting a 
Kenyan NGO involved in sexual and reproductive health 
education that reaches about 6,000 young people.  The large 
presence of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Walter 
Reed, both based in Kisumu, is greatly appreciated by the population. 
PEPFAR is supporting a CDC program focused on sexual education of 
parents with young children.  CDC, which has been in Kisumu 
since 1979, works in partnership with the Kenya Medical 
Research Institute.  CDC and Walter Reed efforts are having a 
major impact in the fight against HIV/AIDS and malaria. 
Walter Reed is supporting a newly established pediatric wing 
of Kisumu hospital.  The Gates and Path foundations, and 
several American universities are also involved.  A private 
New Hampshire group has provided medical equipment.  A number 
of U.S. museums and organizations are supporting the museum 
in Kisumu, which houses rare artifacts and rare species from 
Lake Victoria.  This reflects the tremendous involvement of 
U.S. non-government institutions throughout Kenya, testifying 
to the breadth of the U.S.-Kenyan partnership. 
 
------------------------------- 
Media - Getting Out the Message 
------------------------------- 
 
¶16. The Ambassador had ample opportunity to get out U.S. 
messages, as national media showed up to cover a number of 
events during the trip.  They appeared fortuitously at the 
town hall meeting with the Maseno University students just at 
the moment when the Ambassador was telling the students they 
should insist on opportunities to ask candidates tough 
questions through town hall meetings and debates (which have 
not been hallmarks of Kenyan democracy).  The Ambassador did 
interviews with local radio stations and took call-in 
questions. 
 
---------------------- 
The American Community 
---------------------- 
 
¶17. The trip also provided an opportunity to conduct a town 
hall meeting with the large American community in Kisumu. 
The Ambassador informed the Americans about U.S. engagement 
with Kenya and our priorities in the country and the region. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶18. That people who have suffered in some of the poorest 
areas of Kenya would nevertheless acknowledge progress made 
since 2002 and be enthusiastic about the electoral process 
 
testifies to the strength of Kenyan democracy.  Even in these 
marginalized areas, access to education has expanded and 
people feel free to speak out.  Though unaccustomed to town 
hall meetings, ordinary Kenyans quickly warmed to the 
opportunities to exchange ideas, hopefully something that 
they will insist upon with candidates running for office. 
Kenyans heard a clear message on the need for an inclusive, 
fair, and transparent electoral process, and on the 
counter-productive nature of tribal politics.  The democratic 
space opened during the past five years and the beginning of 
generational change are slowly altering the face of Kenyan 
politics, but whether this will have much impact in 
diminishing the prominence of tribalism in elections this 
year remains to be seen.  The visit, however, left no doubt 
that Kenya is moving in a positive direction. 
RANNEBERGER