VZCZCXRO1994
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #2576 1412309
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 212309Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7067
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS MEXICO 002576 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR WHA/MEX 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MX
SUBJECT: PRI SET TO WIN YUCATAN GOVERNORSHIP 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  With 80% of the votes counted, it appears 
that PRI candidate Ivonne Ortega has won the race for 
Governor in the Yucatan.  The elections occurred in a climate 
relatively free of conflict or controversy with some 
irregularities noted in smaller towns.  The elections should 
not be viewed as a reflection of President Calderon's 
performance, but rather of political dynamics at the state 
level.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) On Sunday, May 20th, in the first electoral contest 
since Felipe Calderon assumed power, Yucatecos went to the 
polls in large numbers to vote for state and municipal 
representatives.  The Yucatan Institute for Electoral 
Procedures and Civic Participation (IPEPAC) announced at noon 
that it had completed counting 80.52% of the votes.  Results 
to date show Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) 
Candidate, Ivonne Ortega, leading with 49.70% of the vote. 
Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) candidate, Xavier Abreu, is 
trailing with 42.66%.  At this point, there is a difference 
44,200 votes separating the two candidates.  Ortega's victory 
looks decisive in all districts, even in the state capital, 
Merida, which was predicted to be a PAN stronghold.  Abreu 
has not yet formally ceded the election.  However, he admits 
that the "tendencies are not in his favor." 
 
¶3. (SBU) It appears that the PRI has regained a majority in 
the state legislature, having obtained 10 representatives. 
PAN gained 5 representatives.  PAN appears to have retained 
control of Merida, with Cesar Bojorquez, former head of the 
water authority, leading in the race for mayor. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Voters turned out in record numbers, with seventy 
percent of those eligible choosing to participate.  Current 
Governor, Patrico Patron Lavado, came to power with 68.45 % 
of eligible voters participating.  Turnout in last year's 
federal elections was 66.92%. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Voting in Merida was calm with no irregularities 
noted.  There were rumors of party representatives buying 
votes in small municipalities, including Rio Lagartos, 
Tizimin, and Tixcokob.  In Tixkokob, Antinio Patron Laviada, 
brother of the current governor, was accused of election 
tampering by members of the PRI.  He was detained by the 
police for questioning and released. 
 
¶6. (SBU) One day after the election, public officials have 
started the arduous task of clearing Merida streets of 
campaign propaganda, including widely disbursed colored 
plastic banners.  The head of municipal public services 
estimates that his staff will remove approximately 30 tons of 
campaign material. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Embassy comment: Although this was Mexico's first 
state-wide election since President Calderon took office, the 
Yucatan contest should not be viewed as a referendum on 
Calderon's performance.  A leading Mexico City political 
analyst told Poloff it would be difficult to draw national 
conclusions from the elections, which he believed reflected 
local political conditions, dissatisfaction with the current 
PAN governor, and the personalities of the gubernatorial 
candidates.  The Yucatan has been a PRI stronghold for 
decades, and the current governor's lack of popular support 
undermined the PAN candidate whose performance by most 
accounts was lackluster at any rate.  Close state 
congressional and mayoral races suggest that Abreu's weakness 
was responsible for the gubernatorial loss. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Embassy comment continued: Political analysts also 
assess that, while the loss may undermine the credibility of 
PAN's state apparatus, as well as its national leadership, it 
could be good news for President Calderon.  A PRI loss would 
have complicated Calderon's ability to win PRI agreement for 
aspects of his legislative agenda, such as fiscal reform; a 
bitter, drawn out challenge to the results would have 
certainly complicated inter-party relations at the national 
level and complicated PAN's bargaining position in the 
federal congress.  Abreu's outright concession will be a 
positive signal.   End Embassy comment. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American 
Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
BASSETT