VZCZCXRO0787
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHML #1787/01 1510613
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 310613Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY MANILA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6739
INFO RUEHZS/ASEAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 001787 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM RP
SUBJECT: PHILIPPINE MID-TERM ELECTIONS: OVERALL WIN FOR ARROYO 
 
Ref: MANILA 1694 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary and comment.  The Arroyo Administration's 
coalition scored an overall victory in the May 14 mid-term 
elections, winning at least 195 seats in the 220 House of 
Representatives.  It also retained control at the local government 
level, winning 72 of 81 gubernatorial seats and 102 of 118 city 
mayoral seats.  However, it apparently lost heavily in the Senate 
race, probably gaining only two of the 12 vacant seats.  The results 
in the House constitute a fatal blow to further opposition attempts 
to unseat the President through impeachment.  Administration 
dominance at the local government level assures grassroots support 
for the President's economic programs.  However, the opposition's 
continued domination of the Senate will allow it to check the 
Administration, likely often frustrating the President's legislative 
agenda.  In Maguindanao Province, the Commission on Elections 
(COMELEC) suspended the tabulation of certificates of canvas amid 
allegations of widespread cheating. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  As in the past, the Philippine elections were messy and 
often violent, but civil society monitoring groups played a welcome 
and active role in ensuring fairer counts.  Their results are 
remarkably similar to those of the COMELEC for virtually all races. 
The apparent sweep by the Opposition in the Senate races arguably 
demonstrates the fundamental fairness of the elections despite 
irregularities.  There is nonetheless widespread agreement that the 
COMELEC should make significant and tangible progress toward 
automated transmission of results in time for the 2010 elections. 
End summary and comment. 
 
Administration Coalition Retains House 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) As of May 30, the Arroyo Administration's coalition had 
garnered at least 195 of the 220 Congressional district seats.  The 
number could go higher, with 15 seats still under contest.  Ruling 
party Lakas won at least 92 seats.  Administration allies Kabalikat 
ng Malayang Pilipino (KAMPI) or Partners of the Free Filipino --- 
President Arroyo's own political party -- won at least 47 seats; 
Nationalist People's Coalition, 28; Liberal Party, 21, and two other 
smaller parties, 7 seats.  The opposition has won only 10 seats so 
far.  Given these numbers, Liberal Party chief and former Senate 
President Drilon publicly conceded that any impeachment attempt 
against the President - which requires a 1/3 vote (79 members) in 
the House for transmittal to the Senate - will be almost impossible 
to succeed. 
 
KAMPI Representative to Challenge de Venecia? 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) Topping the list of Administration winners is Pangasinan 
Fourth District Representative and Lakas Party President and 
incumbent House Speaker Jose de Venecia who, banking on multi-party 
support, has expressed confidence that he will retain the 
Speakership for an unprecedented fifth term, despite a credible 
challenge by newly-elected Cebu Representative and former Cebu 
Governor Pablo Garcia.  Camarines Sur Representative and KAMPI 
President Luis Villafuerte announced a plan to challenge de Venecia 
after a recent caucus of this second biggest political party, but 
Malacanang sources have distanced the President from any effort to 
replace de Venecia. 
 
First Family Goes Undefeated 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) The First Family was highly successful in these elections. 
First Son Juan Miguel "Mikey" won re-election as Second District 
representative in Pampanga.  Son Diosdado Ignacio "Dato" won his 
first bid at politics as representative of Camarines Sur Province's 
First District.   Ignacio Arroyo, brother of First Gentleman Jose 
Miguel "Mike" Arroyo, won re-election as Fifth District 
representative of Negros Occidental Province. 
 
Cabinet Members' Relatives Also Succeed 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) Cabinet members' relatives also did well.  Roman Romulo, 
lawyer-son of Foreign Affairs Secretary Alberto Romulo, won in his 
second attempt at a Congressional seat in Pasig City. 
Representative Elenita Ermita-Buhain, daughter of Executive 
Secretary Eduardo Ermita, won re-election in the First District of 
 
SIPDIS 
Batangas, although it appears her brother Edwin failed in his bid 
for the vice gubernatorial seat in the province.  Political neophyte 
Mark Leandro "Dong" Mendoza, son of Transportation Secretary Leandro 
Mendoza, won the Fourth District seat in Batangas, while Jesi Lapus, 
younger brother of Education Secretary Jesli Lapus, won his 
brother's former seat as representative of the Third District of 
Tarlac.  Pryde Henry Teves, nephew of Finance Secretary Gary Teves, 
replaced grandfather Hermino Teves as Negros Oriental's Third 
 
MANILA 00001787  002 OF 003 
 
 
District representative.  Trinidad Apostol, wife of Chief 
Presidential Legal Counsel Sergio Apostol, won re-election as 
Leyte's Second District representative.  Justice Secretary Raul 
Gonzalez' son, Raul Jr., won re-election as Iloilo City 
representative. 
 
Opposition To Dominate Senate 
----------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (U) As of May 30, the COMELEC had counted 87% of the 
certificates of canvass nationwide for the Senate and party-list 
races but had not yet formally proclaimed any of the 12 Senate 
victors.  Partial official results are generally consistent with 
pre-election and exit poll surveys, which placed the opposition in 
the lead.  So far, eight "Genuine Opposition" (GO), two 
pro-Administration "Team Unity" (TU), and two independent candidates 
appear poised to win the 12 available Senate seats.  Former Senator 
Loren Legarda apparently garnered the highest number of votes, with 
16.5 million so far.  The rank order so far for the top 12 
candidates nationwide are: 
 
-  Loren Legarda (GO) 
-  Francis Escudero (GO) 
-  Panfilo Lacson (GO) 
-  Manuel Villar, Jr. (GO) 
-  Francis Pangilinan (Ind) 
-  Benigno Aquino III (GO) 
-  Edgardo Angara (TU) 
-  Joker Arroyo (TU) 
-  Alan Peter Cayetano (GO) 
-  Gregorio Honasan (Ind) 
-  Antonio Trillanes (GO) 
-  Aquilino Pimentel III (GO) 
 
TU Candidates Still in the Running 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (U) TU Senate candidates Miguel Zubiri and Ralph Recto are still 
in the running for the "Magic 12," pending final tabulation of votes 
from Mindanao, but TU candidate Michael Defensor (former 
Presidential Chief of Staff and Secretary of Environment and Natural 
Resources) conceded defeat on May 30. 
 
Metro Manila a Mixed Bag 
------------------------ 
 
¶9.  (U) Opposition Mayor Jejomar "Jojo" Binay won a land-slide 
re-election in Makati City against challenger and incumbent Senator 
"Lito" Lapid, who will resume his Senate seat for the remaining 
three years of his six-year term.  Also, opposition 
lawyer-journalist Teodoro "Teddyboy" Locsin, Jr. won a third term as 
First District representative in Makati.  Opposition Senator Alfredo 
Lim won the mayorship of the city Manila, regaining the post he held 
before entering the Senate.  This will leave two Senate seats vacant 
until 2010, given the unlikelihood of special nationwide elections 
to fill Lim's and Vice President Noli de Castro's spots.  There will 
thus be only 22 Senators (out of a possible 24) for the next three 
years. 
 
¶10.  (U)  Independent Las Pinas City Representative Cynthia Aguilar 
Villar -- wife of winning incumbent Senator Manuel Villar -- won a 
third term, while brother Vergel Aguilar won re-election as mayor. 
In San Juan City, former President Estrada's son Joseph Victor "JV" 
Ejercito, running with the opposition, won a third and final term as 
mayor, while opposition Congressman Ronaldo Zamora won re-election. 
 
 
¶11.  (U) Mandaluyong City's Benjamin Abalos Jr., son of COMELEC 
Chairman Benjamin Abalos, and Neptali Gonzalez II are back as mayor 
and representative, respectively, after temporarily warming each 
other's seats after reaching term limits in 2004.  All incumbent key 
officials in Quezon City won re-election, including former House 
Speaker and incumbent Mayor Feliciano Belmonte and Representative 
Matias Defensor, father of failed TU senatorial candidate Mike 
Defensor.  Sherwin and Rexlon Gatchalian, sons of Estrada crony 
William Gatchalian, won as mayor and First District representative, 
respectively, of Valenzuela City.  A third son lost to returning 
representative lawyer Magtanggol Gunigundo III in the Second 
District.  The latter is the son of former Presidential Commission 
on Good Government Chairman Magtanggol Gunigundo, who served during 
the Ramos Administration. 
 
Winning Party-List Organizations 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶12.  (U) As of May 30, 16 party-list organizations have garnered the 
minimum two percent nationwide vote required for a seat in Congress. 
 At least six of these parties are clearly anti-Administration, 
including: pro-life BUHAY, 8.57 percent of the total vote; leftist 
 
MANILA 00001787  003 OF 003 
 
 
Bayan Muna, 6.65 percent; anti-corruption CIBAC, 5.49 percent; 
militant pro-women Gabriela, 3.85 percent; leftist AKBAYAN, 2.89 
percent; militant labor group Anak Pawis, 2.46 percent.  Should 
these numbers hold, they would account for 11 anti-Administration 
representatives.  Ten other organizations are poised to win 
party-list seats, but none are publicly identified as overtly pro- 
or anti-Administration.  These parties are: electric cooperatives 
group APEC, 3.84 percent; farmers' group BUTIL, 3.52 percent, 
pro-poor ALAGAD, 3.42 percent; A TEACHER, 3.35 percent; agricultural 
group ABONO, 2.90 percent; agricultural group AGAP, 2.63 percent; 
new citizen advocacy group BATAS, 2.63; Alliance of Rural Concerns 
(ARC), 2.42 percent; Cooperative-National Confederation Network 
Party (COOP-NATCO), 2.34 percent; and Visayan organization An Waray, 
2.13 percent.  Under the party-list system, an organization may have 
a maximum of three seats in Congress, at two percent votes 
nationwide per seat.  So far, only BUHAY and Bayan Muna will likely 
each get three seats. 
 
Entertainers Fail to Persuade 
----------------------------- 
 
¶13.  (U) Entertainment personalities flopped in both national and 
local races, indicating that voters are slowly discerning the reel 
from real.  One exceptions was movie actress and outgoing Lipa City 
Mayor Vilma Santos Recto -- wife of senatorial candidate Ralph Recto 
- who won her gubernatorial bid in Batangas Province.  A big 
surprise was the defeat of featherweight boxing champion and 
national hero "Manny" Pacquiao for the Congressional seat in General 
Santos City. 
 
Special Elections in Maguindanao 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Maguindanao Province in Mindanao was at the center of 
controversy over alleged fraud and irregularities in the May 14 
elections.  Amid allegations of widespread cheating, the COMELEC 
suspended the tabulation of certificates of canvas in the province. 
To date, the COMELEC has not counted the certificates of canvas from 
Maguindanao.  According to National Movement for Free Elections 
Chairman Go, "we cannot even be sure that elections really took 
place in Maguindanao."  Several teachers have anonymously provided 
evidence of alleged abuses that publicly cast doubt on the validity 
of these elections. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Governor Andal "Andy" Ampatuan, Vice-Governor Sajid 
Ampatuan (Andal's son), Congressman Simeon Datumanong (Andal's 
nephew), and 21 out of 22 mayoral candidates in Maguindanao ran for 
office unopposed.  According to a senior Autonomous Region in Muslim 
Mindanao (ARMM) official, no one "dared" to challenge Ampatuan and 
his handpicked candidates because "the word was out" in Maguindanao. 
 He privately bemoaned that the "non-election" in Maguindanao had 
undermined the democratic process. 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita attributed Team 
Unity's supposed 12-0 win in Maguindanao to "strong support" from 
local officials and the failure of opposition candidates to campaign 
within the province.  "How can you fault the people in that area if 
the other party has no machinery, and, in fact, does not have any 
candidate for mayor," Ermita told the press.  "If you do not go 
there, if you are not seen there, chances are they might forget to 
vote for you," explained Ermita.  However, COMELEC Commissioner and 
Task Force Maguindanao Chief Rene Sarmiento, who briefly headed an 
investigation of electoral fraud in the Ampatuan clan-dominated 
province, resigned from his special post on May 28 due to "health 
reasons."  COMELEC Chairman Abalos on May 30 admitted publicly that 
the 12-0 TU results in Maguindanao were "statistically improbable" 
and ordered a recount at the municipal level. 
 
Special Elections in Lanao del Sur Province 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶17. (U) After election workers refused to man their polling 
precincts on May 14 due to threats from rival political clans, the 
COMELEC declared a failure of elections in 13 towns in Lanao del Sur 
Province in Mindanao.  COMELEC held special elections on May 26 in 
these towns, but election results have not yet arrived at the 
national canvassing board in Manila. 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/ 
 
KENNEY