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DE RUEHMU #1377/01 1502228
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 302228Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0363
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001377 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN, INL/LP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: GROUP VOICES SUPPORT OF NICARAGUAN POLICE AND 
MILITARY TO PREVENT ORTEGA DICTATORSHIP 
 
REF: MANAGUA 1184 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  A group of fourteen prominent Nicaraguans, 
who call themselves the "Grupo de Opinion" (Opinion Group) 
are voicing their support of the Nicaraguan National Police 
and the Armed Forces in order to prevent them from being 
co-opted by President Daniel Ortega.  Rafael Cordoba, a 
member of the group and a Conservative who worked on 
communications and publicity for the National Liberal 
Alliance (ALN-PC), told poloffs that they placed a full-page 
paid advertisement in both Nicaraguan papers on May 18 to 
show the public's support of the police and armed forces. 
Cordoba commented that the timing of the ad worked well, 
following recent successes in counternarcotics efforts by the 
police and military and the release of a public opinion poll 
that showed great public confidence in both organizations. 
According to the recent poll, the majority of Nicaraguans 
have confidence in the police and the military and their 
ability to protect the country from the threats of organized 
crime, terrorism and nacrotrafficking.  Cordoba said that the 
Grupo de Opinion formed under previous president Enrique 
Bolanos.  They garnered support from well-known Nicaraguans 
who are listed at the bottom of the ad.  Cordoba added that 
the group of opinion leaders plan additional ad campaigns and 
will focus efforts on the upcoming municipal elections.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
Broad Support for Police and Military 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2.  (C) During a meeting with poloffs on May 21, Rafael 
Cordoba explained that the group of opinion leaders placed 
the advertisement to show broad support for the police and 
military in their war on drugs.  The ad congratulates the 
institutions on recent counternarcotics efforts and urges the 
Nicaraguan government (GON) to respect the independence and 
professionalism of both the military and the police.  The ad 
calls for the government to support both entities without 
interfering or undermining their efforts.   Cordoba further 
commented that the ultimate goal of the ad was to prevent a 
dictatorship.  For a dictatorship, President Ortega must have 
arms, commented Cordoba.  He believes that if the police and 
military understand that civil society supports them, it will 
be harder for Ortega to co-opt them. 
 
¶3.  (C) Cordoba told poloffs that timing of the ad worked 
well, following recent successes in counternarcotics efforts 
by the police and military and the release of an opinion poll 
that showed great public confidence in both organizations. 
He admitted that the recent seizures that were splashed 
across the front pages of the papers for weeks provided a 
great "hook" for the ad.  The full-page ad is half a page of 
text followed by the signatures of 117 prominent Nicaraguans. 
 
¶4.  (U) A recent public opinion poll by M&R (Reftel) gauged 
public perception of the first 100 days of Ortega's 
presidency, but also contained lengthy sections on attitudes 
toward the police and military.  To complete this study, M&R 
conducted face-to-face interviews of 1,600 Nicaraguans over 
the age of 16 between April 11 and 14, covering urban, rural, 
and semi-rural areas in all departments of the country.  The 
survey's margin of error is approximately 2.5 percent.  The 
survey covered public attitudes toward the Ortega management, 
governing style, exercise of power, and specific actions 
during the first hundred days as well as attitudes toward the 
political opposition, social issues, national security, and 
international relations. 
 
¶5.  (U) The survey showed that 16 percent of those polled 
have great confidence and 61 percent have some confidence in 
the police.  Indeed, according to the poll, Police Chief 
Aminta Granera is the most popular figure in the country, 
outranking even beloved former president Violeta Chamorro. 
Granera enjoys close to an 80 percent approval rating, with 
only a 5.5 percent disapproval rating.  Those polled gave an 
average of a 50 percent approval rating when asked about the 
police force's effectiveness in preventing crimes, dealing 
with family violence and traffic enforcement.  In the fight 
against narcotrafficking, of those polled, 55 percent have a 
positive view, 29 percent have no opinion and only 16 percent 
have a negative perception. 
 
¶6.  (U) The public have great confidence in the armed forces 
according to the survey -- 45 percent have great confidence, 
46 percent have some confidence and only 6 percent have no 
 
confidence.  Those surveyed indicated a 73 or 74 percent 
positive rating on the military's ability to guarantee 
national security, counter armed groups in the country, fight 
terrorism and organized crime and protect Nicaragua's 
borders.  The approval rating for the military's efforts to 
combat international narcotrafficking was even higher, at 76 
percent.  The approval rating went up to 79 percent in the 
public's perception of the military's ability to help the 
population during times of natural disaster. 
 
The Group of Opinion Leaders 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶7.  (C) Cordoba told poloffs that a group of opinion leaders 
that formed during the Bolanos presidency still meet to 
discuss political issues and the current administration. 
Cordoba says the group acted as a "kitchen cabinet" and met 
on Wednesdays to discuss policy and make recommendations to 
the president.  The group originally included mostly liberals 
and some representatives from civil society.  Since then, the 
group has become more diverse, and now includes a few former 
Sandinistas.  In planning the ad campaign, they reached out 
to a wide variety of contacts with the draft text of the 
message.  Those who supported the message are listed in the 
ad; among their numbers are political and civil society 
leaders, businessmen and well-known artists. 
 
Focus on the Municipal Elections 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶8.  (C) Cordoba added that the group of opinion leaders plan 
additional ad campaigns and will focus their efforts on the 
upcoming municipal elections.  Their goal will be to educate 
people about the importance of the elections, urge people to 
get their cedulas and then encourage them to vote.  He sees 
the municipal elections as a critical point for the country 
and predicts that it will be difficult for the opposition 
parties.  On average, only 60 percent of eligible voters vote 
in the municipal elections and Cordoba believes that many 
rural voters are unaware of the issues or that there are 
options beyond the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) and the 
FSLN.  In order to maximize scarce resources, the ALN-PC 
plans to focus its efforts on the 30 municipalities with 
populations over 30,000.  Cordoba believes they have a better 
chance in these municipalities, although he told poloffs that 
it will be a difficult battle.  He has heard that the FSLN 
and PLC are already "buying" votes through offers of 
employment or "favors." 
 
Mixed Result? 
- - - - - - - 
 
¶9.  (C) So far, there has been no public response from the 
military and the police to the ad, which surprises Cordoba. 
He also told poloffs that they made a mistake with the ad by 
not providing a contact email or website for people who read 
it and agree with the views expressed.  He added that a 
number of people had already called him and asked why they 
were not included and given the opportunity to be listed 
among the supporters. 
 
¶10.  (C) At least for the Police Chief, the ad may have 
produced mixed results.  During a meeting with poloff, Police 
Chief Aminta Granera reported that the advertisement showed 
the importance of the military and the police but that 
privately it made her "uncomfortable."  She stated that it 
may draw unwanted attention from Ortega and the FSLN who may 
interpret it as her "personal campaign" to gain popularity. 
She commented that if someone "shines too much" the FSLN 
finds a way to "knock them down."  (COMMENT:  During the 
meeting Granera emphatically denied the rumors that she is 
planning to run for mayor of Managua and made it clear that 
the extra attention makes her uncomfortable.  She believes 
that it is best to keep a "low profile" so as not to be 
perceived as a threat to the FSLN.  END COMMENT.) 
TRIVELLI