VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMU #1195 1282216
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 082216Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0136
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001195 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: IN SEARCH OF OPPOSITION UNITY - PART II 
 
REF: A. MANAGUA 1174 
 
     ¶B. MANAGUA 1028 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: The group of prominent democrats introduced 
in ref B reports that they are planning a major declaration 
of opposition unity some time in late May.  Despite past 
declarations of support from the three defeated 
ex-Presidential candidates however, several seem to be 
waffling in their commitment to the project.  Nevertheless, 
the group is confident that they can convince Nicaraguan 
Liberal Alliance (ALN) leader Eduardo Montealegre and Liberal 
Constitutional Party (PLC) ex-candidate Jose Rizo to make a 
joint declaration, while leaving the door open for the 
Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) to join the alliance in 
the future.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) DCM hosted a cocktail on May 7 to discuss opposition 
unity plans with a group of prominent democrats that included 
Jose Adan Guerra, Mauricio Mendieta, Mauricio Diaz, and 
Alfredo Cesar (ref B).  The group tentatively plans to 
organize a press event on May 14 or 21 to announce an 
alliance of the three ex-Presidential candidates, although 
Edmundo Jarquin and Jose Rizo appear to be waffling in their 
commitment to the project. 
 
¶3. (C) Mendieta recalled a recent conversation with Jarquin, 
during which the MRS ex-candidate explained that only about 
half of his party supports joining an opposition alliance 
with the ALN and PLC -- and the entire party is against any 
process that includes convicted PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman. 
Mendieta opined that the "radical" element of the MRS, 
including Assembly deputy Monica Baltodano, is inherently 
opposed to any alliance with the Liberals.  Guerra agreed, 
commenting that the MRS is afraid of losing credibility with 
the larger Sandinista movement and described the MRS and FSLN 
as "brothers temporarily estranged by a family dispute." 
Cesar reiterated that Jarquin is personally interested in the 
project and may be "putting on the brakes" to gain more time 
for negotiations. 
 
¶4. (C) Jose Rizo, abandoned by the PLC leadership after the 
elections, also appears to be vacillating after initial 
expressions of support.  Mendieta mentioned that Rizo did not 
accompany Montealegre on a recent visit to Matagalpa because 
he did not want to give the impression that he had defected 
to the ALN.  Guerra and Diaz commented that many in the PLC 
are sympathetic to Rizo, who they see as used and discarded 
by the party leadership, and who could potentially attract 
many Liberals tired of Aleman's pacts with the FSLN, but 
unwilling to leave the party. 
 
¶5. (C) The group agreed that Montealegre is facing 
considerable pressure from within the ALN to negotiate with 
Aleman.  Cesar specifically mentioned ALN deputies Jamileth 
Bonilla, Eliseo Nunez, Sr., and Indalecio Rodriguez as 
favoring closer ties with Aleman.  All concurred that 
Montealegre would lose a large bloc of key independent voters 
if he makes a deal with Aleman. 
 
¶6. (C) Ambassador and DCM encouraged the group to plan an 
event outside of Managua and feature PLC local leaders and 
Assembly deputies who would support Rizo, making the point 
that Rizo could be discredited completely unless he can 
attract credible PLC leaders to his side.  Ambassador also 
suggested that they approach the private sector, which has 
used opposition disunity as an excuse to withhold funds. 
Cesar responded that many in the private sector, especially 
"big capital," have been making deals with Ortega and are not 
interested in rocking the boat. 
 
¶7. (C) Comment: As usual, the main players in the unity 
project are refusing to fully commit.  Cesar suggested, and 
we agree, that unless the project can gain traction in the 
next few weeks, competing groups will emerge to take the 
initiative -- possibly insisting on Aleman's inclusion. 
Should that occur, the Liberals would lose support from 
independent voters and any hope of forming an alliance with 
the MRS. 
TRIVELLI