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PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
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DE RUEHMD #1002/01 1441718
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 241718Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY MADRID
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2609
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHLA/AMCONSUL BARCELONA 2741

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MADRID 001002 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SP
SUBJECT: SPANISH REGIONAL ELECTIONS UNLIKELY TO RADICALLY 
ALTER POLITICAL MAP 
 
MADRID 00001002  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Spanish voters head to the polls on May 27 
to elect governments in most of Spain's 17 autonomous 
communities and in all of its city and town councils, in the 
first important electoral battle between the Spanish 
Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) and the Popular Party (PP) 
since the national elections of March 14, 2004.  Those 
elections took place three days after the Madrid train 
bombings and gave the PSOE of President Jose Luis Rodriguez 
Zapatero a surprise victory over Mariano Rajoy, the PP 
successor to former President Jose Maria Aznar.  Spanish 
polling over the past few months has been ambiguous and 
indicates that the results will likely be a draw for both the 
PSOE and PP, providing both with some momentum going into 
national elections that will be held by March 2008.  The 
polls suggest that the Socialists could gain enough votes to 
lead coalition governments in two current PP-controlled 
regions, and the PP is expected to increase its support in 
its traditional regional strongholds.  However, any 
combination of Socialist victories in key regions would give 
Zapatero a good base of support going into national 
elections.  Despite the high-profile national issues that 
dominate Spanish headlines, this electoral campaign has been 
fought over local issues and interests.  It will be difficult 
to extrapolate the outcome of the regional and local 
elections, whatever it may be, to predict how the PSOE and PP 
will fare nationally.  The Spanish political scene is highly 
volatile, and both parties fear some "wildcard" issue could 
come to the fore suddenly * such as renewed ETA violence or 
an Islamic terrorist attack * that could swiftly change 
current projections of the elections outcome. END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Spanish voters will head to the polls on May 27 to 
elect the governments of 13 of Spain's 17 autonomous 
communities (all but Andalusia, Catalonia, Galicia, and the 
Basque Region) and more than 8,000 city and town councils, in 
the first important electoral battle between the Spanish 
Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) and the Popular Party (PP) 
since the national elections of March 14, 2004.  Those 
elections took place three days after the Madrid train 
bombings and gave the PSOE of President Jose Luis Rodriguez 
Zapatero a surprise victory over Mariano Rajoy, the PP 
successor to former President Jose Maria Aznar.  Some Spanish 
pundits have posited that the local elections may be a good 
barometer of the prospects for President Zapatero to win a 
second term in national elections that will take place by 
March 2008.  Spanish polling over the past few months has 
been ambiguous and indicates that the results will likely be 
a draw for both the PSOE and PP, providing both with some 
momentum going into national elections.  The polls suggest 
that the Socialists could gain enough votes to lead coalition 
governments in two current PP-controlled regions, and the PP 
is expected to increase its support in its traditional 
regional strongholds.  However, any combination of Socialist 
victories in key regions would give Zapatero a good base of 
support going into national elections. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Despite the high-profile national issues that 
dominate Spanish headlines (such as the Zapatero government's 
controversial policy of negotiations with the terrorist group 
ETA, the decision to remand convicted ETA assassin De Juana 
Chaos from prison to a hospital for treatment to recover from 
a self-inflicted hunger strike, and the continued heated 
debate over the former Aznar government's support of the Iraq 
war and Zapatero's decision to withdraw Spanish troops), this 
electoral campaign has been fought over local issues and 
interests, and the personality and charisma of each candidate 
appear to carry more weight than the affiliated party's stand 
on national issues.  On the national level, Rajoy's PP has 
adopted a reflexive, hard-lined opposition to the Socialist 
government on almost every issue that appears to have 
energized its base, but it has failed to move the party's 
polling upward.  Rajoy has urged voters to support his party 
in order to "defend freedom and defeat ETA."  Even in PP 
strongholds, Zapatero polls better than Rajoy in terms of 
popularity.  The PP goes into the May 27 elections secure in 
most of its traditional bases of support but vulnerable in 
two key regions, Navarra and the Balearic islands. 
 
¶4. (SBU) After studying the polls and analyzing the electoral 
map, the Embassy and CG Barcelona determined that Navarra, 
the Canary Islands, the Balearic Islands, and Valencia will 
be the key "battleground" regions with the potential to shift 
the balance of power.  We discovered in visits to some of 
these key regions and meetings with local officials of all 
political stripes that coalition-building with smaller 
political parties may be the deciding factor in some 
important races, and that national politics had not played 
much of a role in the campaign.  A wildcard in these 
 
MADRID 00001002  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
regional/local elections*and for the early 2008 national 
elections*is the possibility of renewed ETA violence or 
another Islamic extremist terrorist attack.  Either scenario 
could dramatically change the political dynamic, though in 
still unpredictable ways which we cannot necessarily assume 
will favor any particular party. 
 
//SNAPSHOTS OF POTENTIALLY KEY REGIONS// 
 
¶5. (SBU) Although sea changes are not expected, the following 
regions could have the potential to give either the PSOE or 
PP momentum heading into national elections: 
 
¶A. Navarra - The northern region of Navarra has been the most 
closely watched community of this campaign due to its 
proximity to the Basque region and ETA's claim that Navarra 
forms part of the historic Basque region.  Navarra is 
currently ruled by the Union del Pueblo Navarro (UPN), the 
PP,s signature ally in the region, but recent polls indicate 
that the UPN will not win an absolute majority, not even with 
the help of smaller party CDN, as it has done in the past. 
Navarra would then change hands if the PSOE and a grouping of 
left-wing and nationalist parties (including some with ties 
to ETA's political wing Batasuna) were to successfully join 
forces.  A PSOE-led coalition victory would be seen as a 
significant PP setback both in the region and nationally, but 
also a card the PP could play against PSOE in the national 
election campaign. 
 
¶B. The Canary Islands - Neither the PP nor the PSOE have ever 
obtained an absolute majority in the Canaries, and a party 
known as the Canaries Coalition (CC) has been the most voted 
party in the past two regional elections.  The CC has never 
had a problem with switching allegiances.  It formed a 
government with the PP in 1999, then joined forces with the 
PSOE in 2003.  Both main parties covet an absolute majority 
to deny the CC the role of kingmaker, but the most reliable 
polling indicates that CC will again make the difference. 
The PSOE has called in a heavy hitter in an attempt to wrest 
control from the CC.  Former Minister of Justice Juan 
Fernando Lopez Aguilar (who is generally friendly towards the 
USG) heads the PSOE ticket, but it appears unlikely that the 
national politician who is a native of the Canaries will put 
PSOE over the top with a majority.  Voters in Canaries have 
expressed displeasure with the recent years of CC governance, 
and polls indicate that the PSOE may gain some seats at the 
CC's expense, with the PP holding steady.  The CC will likely 
still play the kingmaker, deciding whether to pact with the 
PP or the PSOE to govern.  Although unlikely, a surprise 
outright win by either major party would greatly boost its 
national election prospects.  Immigration is the signature 
issue in this region, and a decisive vote could impact the 
national debate in advance of national elections. 
 
¶C. The Balearic Islands - This region has voted the PP into 
power for almost all of its twenty years as an autonomous 
region, save the period from 1999-2003 when the PSOE ran the 
government by forming a pact with several smaller parties. 
Current Baleares President Jaume Matas of the PP (a close 
confidant of Rajoy and former Environment Minister in the 
Aznar Government) has lost significant electoral support in 
recent months as allegations of urban corruption and some 
city governments receiving kickbacks have tainted his 
campaign.  Recent polls indicate his party should again win 
the election by a small margin - Matas remains widely popular 
mainly for his close contacts in Madrid and the bounty that 
has brought the island - but will fall short of an absolute 
majority by 3-4 seats.  The PP would be forced to try and 
pact with a small nationalist group known as the Unio 
Mallorquina (UM), but it is unclear if the UM will even win 
enough seats to put a new PP government over the top.  The UM 
may actually choose instead to support some leftist groups as 
the party has done in the past.  Some Spanish political 
observers suggest that if the PSOE affiliate in the Balearics 
increases its number of seats by just 2-3, they would be able 
to again form a pact with the Bloc per Mallorca (a group of 
left-leaning parties) and once again rule the region.  If 
this happens, and it is still a long shot, it would be a huge 
momentum boost to the PSOE and Zapatero. 
 
¶D. Valencia - After several years of a Socialist government 
in the late 80s and early 90s, Valencia since 1996 has been a 
PP stronghold.  Current regional governor Francisco Camps 
remains a highly popular leader and a potential future 
national leader of the Popular Party.  Most polls show he 
should comfortably win an absolute majority; however, one 
small poll indicating he might not gain the majority has the 
PP worried enough to motivate their base to get out to vote. 
 
MADRID 00001002  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
The poll, which Camps' campaign manager says turned out to be 
false, nonetheless has also served to help motivate PSOE 
voters, though the Socialist party in Valencia believes that 
it has a strong chance of winning only if it can achieve a 
70-percent turnout of PSOE voters.  This high percentage is 
unlikely unless some major event occurs that brings voters 
out to the polls.  Valencia Mayor Rita Barbera (PP) also has 
maintained her popularity and both parties expect her to win. 
 While regional and local issues dominate in Valencia, there 
is strong concern about Zapatero,s ETA policy, particularly 
after the release of ETA terrorist De Juana Chaos, and over 
perceived PSOE policies that threaten to undermine Spanish 
unity.  A large PP victory in Valencia will carry Camps into 
a strong position to lead the PP in the future, particularly 
if current PP national leader Rajoy cannot carry enough votes 
in the next round of national elections. 
 
¶E. Catalonia - This region held state-wide elections last 
November, which resulted in a Socialist-led regional 
coalition government, and will hold only municipal elections 
this time around.  The key race is for mayor of Barcelona. 
There are almost no surprises expected here, as the 
Socialists are expected to sweep.  In Barcelona, Catalan 
Socialist Party (PSC) mayor Jordi Hereu is expected to 
confirm his mandate, retain his seat, and possibly even add 
to his support on the city council.  Going into the election 
with poll numbers topping 59 percent of support, he would 
need to stumble badly for the other parties to make any 
headway.  If the polls hold true in other major cities such 
as Girona, Tarragona, and Lleida, the Socialist party stands 
to gain greater control of the region than it has ever had. 
It would control all four provincial capitals and 
significantly increase its presence on the major city 
councils. 
 
//BEYOND MAY 27// 
 
¶6. (SBU) It will be difficult to extrapolate the outcome of 
the regional and local elections, whatever it may be, to 
predict how the PSOE and PP will fare in the next round of 
national elections, since only 13 out of the 17 Spanish 
Autonomous regions will cast their vote on May 27, and 
overriding national issues played only a tangential role in 
this campaign.  However, the numerous municipal elections 
carried out in every Spanish city and town hall may provide a 
glimpse of the main issues on the minds of the Spanish. 
Although an unlikely scenario, if the PP were to lose the 
regional election in Madrid, a major PP stronghold along with 
Valencia, Mariano Rajoy may see his leadership openly 
questioned by his own party.  A stunning defeat in Madrid 
would open the door for a PP leadership make over, and other 
would-be leaders would likely challenge his leadership.  At 
this point, neither scenario seems likely, but the Spanish 
political scene is highly volatile, and both parties fear 
some "wildcard" issue could come to the fore suddenly * such 
as an ETA or Islamic terrorist attack * that could swiftly 
change current projections of the elections outcome. 
LLORENS