VZCZCXRO2207
OO RUEHDBU RUEHIK RUEHPW RUEHYG
DE RUEHBUL #1581/01 1310959
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 110959Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7977
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/COMSOCCENT MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 4052

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KABUL 001581 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DOD FOR USDP EDELMAN 
STATE FOR SCA/FO A/S BOUCHER AND SAS GASTRIGHT, SCA/A, 
S/CRS, SCA/PB, S/CT, EUR/RPM 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG 
NSC PASS TO AHARRIMAN 
OSD FOR SHIVERS 
CG CJTF-76, POLAD, JICCENT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER ASEC MARR AF
SUBJECT: PLANNING FOR A FEASIBLE, AFFORDABLE, SUSTAINABLE 
ELECTION SYSTEM 
 
REF: A. KABUL 1007 
     ¶B. KABUL 1527 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) The high cost and short-lived institutional benefit 
of Afghanistan's milestone post-Taliban elections underscores 
the importance of developing a feasible, affordable, and 
sustainable plan for future elections.  The May 1 JCMB 
endorsed recommendations (drafted by the Embassy Governance 
Policy Group for the UNAMA-chaired JCMB Technical Working 
Group) calling for early passage of a new election law, 
consideration of simplifying the electoral calendar, 
increased support for the Independent Election Commission, 
and a decision by August whether, based on the pilot project 
underway, the proposed Civil and Voter Registry (CVR) meets 
the "feasible, affordable, sustainable" criteria.  Post is 
working closely with UNAMA and effectively using the JCMB 
process to ensure decisions are made that lead to an 
Afghan-owned, Afghan-appropriate, and Afghan-sustainable 
election system in time for the Presidential elections in 
¶2009. END SUMMARY. 
 
PAST LESSONS INFORM ELECTION PLANNING 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Afghanistan's previous elections, financed and run 
largely by the international community, were a hugely 
significant milestone.  They were, administratively speaking, 
a one-off exercise that contributed little to long-term local 
capacity to conduct elections.  They were also very 
expensive.  The combined costs of the 2004 Presidential and 
2005 Parliamentary and Provincial Council elections was $332 
million, including approximately $20 million in uncovered 
costs.  The USG initially contributed $100 million to the 
UNDP project and recently announced our intention to 
contribute an additional $4 million to bring the remaining 
outstanding debt down to $7 million.  As intended, this 
recent contribution has been used by UNAMA as leverage to 
urge other donors, including Japan, to make contributions to 
finally clear the outstanding balance from the last 
elections. 
 
¶3. (SBU) This expenditure left behind few material or 
institutional assets for future elections.  The Presidential 
decree, which provided the legal framework for the last 
elections, must be replaced by an amended election law.  The 
voter registry was designed to work for the 2004 and 2005 
elections but, depending on the new election law, will have 
to be revised or completely redone for the next elections. 
While the Independent Election Commission (IEC) performed 
well in the last elections, it depended largely on temporary 
international staff.  It retained less than 40 percent of its 
experienced Afghan staff when the IEC went through the Public 
Administration Reform (PAR) process.  Massive investment and 
capacity building will be required if the IEC is to meet its 
responsibilities for the upcoming and future elections. 
 
JCMB Election Working Group Drives Progress 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Recognizing the challenges involved in planning for 
the next elections, the Embassy drafted a White Paper on the 
need for early planning, which was presented to the Fourth 
session of the Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board (JCMB) 
in Berlin.  This was the catalyst for the JCMB establishing 
an Elections Working Group (EWG) to consider in greater depth 
the issues raised in a paper.  UNAMA convened the EWG on 
March 15 in Kabul (ref A) and asked the Embassy to prepare a 
new White Paper recommending steps to address the issues. 
The EWG discussed the draft White Paper on April 10, and a 
 
KABUL 00001581  002 OF 004 
 
 
revised version was approved on April 25.  The White Paper 
was then submitted to the JCMB, where its key findings were 
accepted on May 1 (ref B). 
 
¶5. (SBU) The White Paper framed a JCMB decision that "Urgent 
efforts, including by the Elections Working Group, are 
required so that within the next five months, the electoral 
cycle is simplified and rationalized, electoral system issues 
resolved, financial resources secured, and appropriate legal 
changes undertaken" (ref B).  The JCMB White Paper calls for 
three types of measures:  reforming the legal framework; 
building electoral capacity; and assessing the Civil and 
Voter Registry (CVR) mandated in the Afghanistan Compact as a 
feasible, affordable, and Afghan-sustainable vote 
registration vehicle. 
 
REFORMING THE LEGAL FRAMEWORK 
----------------------------- 
 
The Election Law: 
 
¶6. (SBU) The JCMB White Paper flagged that, under the Afghan 
constitution, the revised election law must be finalized a 
year before the next elections, thus by March 2008.  The 
Ministry of Justice and the Cabinet are currently consulting 
with parliamentary representatives as to which version of the 
draft law prepared by the Independent Election Commission 
(IEC) will be submitted to parliament.  (NOTE: One version 
calls for a mixed system, including some seats chosen by 
Single Non-Transferable Voting (SNTV) system and other seats 
chosen by Proportional Representation (PR) based on closed 
lists.  The other version would consist of only SNTV seats. 
It is our understanding that the parliament will most likely 
consider the mixed-system proposal.  END NOTE.)  Recognizing 
that decisions on the electoral law belong to the Government 
of Afghanistan, the JCMB is urging donors to press the 
government to promptly adopt a feasible electoral system and 
to encourage the IEC to develop an electoral timeline and to 
identify priorities for action. 
 
The Election Calendar: 
 
¶7. (SBU) The JCMB White Paper also recommended considering 
the possible rationalization of the electoral calendar to 
provide for a more fiscally sustainable electoral cycle. 
Concern with administrative and security costs lay behind 
this recommendation, which has strong support from UNAMA and 
ISAF.  The paper points out that the election calendar based 
on the Afghan Constitution requires 69 elections over the 
next 30 years, excluding village elections.  The IEC sent to 
the Cabinet three proposals which would harmonize the 2009 
Presidential and 2010 parliamentary elections.  The first 
would lengthen the Presidential and Provincial Council terms 
to fall in line with the National Assembly election in Fall 
¶2010.  The second would shorten the National Assembly term to 
correspond with the Presidential and PC elections in Spring 
¶2009.  The third would lengthen the Presidential term by six 
months and shorten the National Assembly term by six months 
to hold all three elections in mid to late 2009. 
 
¶8. (SBU) The Ambassador intervened at the JCMB meeting on May 
1 to highlight that, while the U.S. supported simplification 
and appreciated the financial considerations behind the 
proposal to merge elections, holding bi-elections had the 
democratic benefit of forcing leaders to "check in" with the 
voter more frequently.  He said the U.S. could not support 
the argument that the people of Afghanistan only deserve as 
much democracy as they can afford.  The U.S. is thus on 
record as being interested in carefully reviewing any 
proposal to merge elections not only from the point of view 
of efficiency, but also of democracy. 
 
 
KABUL 00001581  003 OF 004 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) Any change in the election calendar would require a 
change in the Afghan Constitution and thus depends on 
agreement between President Karzai and the parliament. 
Karzai has stated that he will not agree to lengthen his 
mandated term.  The parliament can be expected to resist 
shortening its term.  More fundamentally, opponents to the 
proposal are arguing that a constitutional change will 
require a Loya Jirga, which could open up the possibility of 
much wider constitutional changes.  President Karzai will not 
agree to a Loya Jirga.  While UNAMA continues to focus on the 
issue of simplifying the election calendar, we share wide 
skepticism that it will in fact happen and are prepared to 
argue that there are better ways to save money. 
 
BUILDING IEC CAPACITY 
--------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) The IEC is the Afghan institution responsible for 
the conduct of elections, including drafting of the law, 
organizing the elections, and supporting voter education.  It 
faces the challenge of opening additional provincial offices 
and training new staff.  As noted in the JCMB White Paper, it 
has so far established offices in 29 of the 34 provinces, but 
some provincial governors have been slow to provide 
facilities.  Security concerns have prevented offices from 
opening in several southern provinces.  Staffing gaps and 
lack of experience point to the need for training and 
capacity building.  The UNDP ELECT project is designed to 
support building capacity of the IEC, but has so far received 
only $2.4 million of the $4.9 million budgeted for the 
project.  The White Paper recommends that donors make this 
project a priority and calls on the GoA to increase its 
financial support to the IEC.  USAID has a two-year, $7 
million contract with IFES for IEC capacity building, and 
supports additional elections capacity-building projects 
through The Asia Foundation.  USAID is also looking at 
providing additional money to the UNDP ELECT program to 
support training in the IEC provincial offices. 
 
CIVIL AND VOTER REGISTRY (CVR) 
------------------------------ 
 
¶11. (SBU) The Afghanistan Compact includes a benchmark for 
the establishment of a combined Civil and Voter Registry 
(CVB) by 2008.  The rationale for a combined registry 
reflects the assumption made in London that the two 
registries are similar and that a combined list would result 
in cost savings.  UNDP is responsible for a pilot project to 
test a relatively high-tech CVR model that depends on the IEC 
working with the Ministry of Interior (which would develop a 
civil registry) and the Ministry of Finance (to print 
bio-metric national ID cards using either facial recognition 
or iris scanning technology).  Under the current proposal, 
these cards would be required of all Afghans as the only form 
of acceptable voter identification. Some experts assert that 
such a system would be necessary to assign individual voters 
to specific polling stations and protect against fraud. 
Others highlight the costs of implementing such a system and 
the challenges and costs of maintaining it. 
 
¶12. (U) After several delays, the CVR pilot project in three 
provinces is underway and is scheduled to be completed by 
early August.  The pilot will cost about $400,000. There is 
widespread donor skepticism over the feasibility, 
affordability, and sustainability of the CVR, as envisioned 
by UNDP.  The JCMB decided on May 1 that the pilot project 
should be used to determine whether to continue to implement 
the combined CVR project or to move to a simpler and less 
expensive voter registration system.  The assessment will be 
made prior to the September 2007 JCMB meeting, and the 
Elections Working Group will be considering alternative 
models in the meantime.  While this would require a 
 
KABUL 00001581  004 OF 004 
 
 
modification of the Compact benchmark, it is within the 
JCMB,s authority to make such amendments. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) The Embassy was the prime mover behind the 
decision to take a hard look at the CVR.  We are convinced 
that movement toward a simpler system will not only save 
significant amounts of money (which could be redirected to 
the IEC and especially voter education) but also produce a 
registry which would be more easily sustained by the GOA over 
time.  A simple system that is well maintained and 
implemented does far more to reinforce support for elections 
than a complicated system that is expensive and difficult to 
maintain and implement. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶14. (SBU) Working closely with UNAMA and using White Papers 
to shape the debate has allowed us to guide the discussion on 
elections preparations in the JCMB.  There is, at present, 
broad donor consensus on the need to support a feasible, 
affordable, and Afghanistan appropriate system.  The Embassy 
will continue to work with the IEC and Afghan Government to 
move this agenda forward, as well as with other donors in 
Kabul to coordinate assistance.  END COMMENT. 
 
WOOD