VZCZCXRO9388
RR RUEHHM
DE RUEHHI #0921/01 1381027
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 181027Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5396
INFO RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH 3046

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 000921 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SOCI PREL CH VM
 
SUBJECT: VIETNAMESE GO TO THE POLLS ON MAY 20 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) After an extensive vetting process, the Communist Party of 
Vietnam (CPV) approved 880 candidates to contest 500 seats in the 
May 20 National Assembly (NA) elections.  In spite of the Party 
touting early on that "many more" independent (non-Communist Party) 
candidates would run this time around, the ratio of independents is 
only slightly higher than that of the election in 2002, but the 
ratio of "self-nominated" candidates nearly doubled.  In a first for 
Vietnam -- and as part of the GVN's efforts to bolster its 
sovereignty claims in the Spratly Islands -- constituents in 
recently established Spratly Islands voting districts cast ballots 
on May 13.  Several Politburo members will be on the ballots and are 
not expected to lose.  Furthermore, some relatively well-known and 
outspoken former and current GVN officials, on their own or with 
some encouragement, decided against running.  Although the election 
is highly scripted, the NA has become more assertive in its 
government oversight role, grilling ministers about their policies 
and failures in combating corruption.  The newly elected assembly, 
once seated, will likely continue this trend.  End Summary. 
 
And the Finalists Are... 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) After an extensive vetting process led by the Vietnam 
Fatherland Front (VFF) -- the Communist Party of Vietnam's (CPV) 
"civil society" umbrella organization -- the CPV allowed 880 
candidates to contest 500 seats in the May 20 National Assembly (NA) 
elections.  Of these candidates, 165 work at central Party 
organizations and GVN ministries; 291, or about 33 percent, are 
female; 169 belong to ethnic minority groups (19 percent); and, 154 
(17.5 percent) are "independents" (non-Party members who have 
nonetheless been deemed "safe" by the Party).  In the previous 
election in 2002, there were 759 candidates, of which 257 were 
females (close to 33 percent), 141 ethnic minorities (18.5 percent) 
and 121 independent (approximately 16 percent). 
 
¶3. (SBU) In addition, the Party approved 30 "self-nominated" 
candidates:  those who do not have the official backing of a GVN or 
Party entity, but who are virtually all Party members.  Most of 
these 30 are from major cities, such as Ho Chi Minh City (seven) and 
Hanoi (six).  The ratio of self-nominated candidates is nearly twice 
that of the previous election.  That said, these 30 self-nominated 
candidates represent a sharp decrease from the 238 announced by the 
GVN after the second of three rounds of "consultations." 
Furthermore, we are aware of at least a few cases in which Party 
officials pressured some self-nominated candidates to withdraw or 
found them ineligible to run. 
 
Stepping Into the Polling Booth 
------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Eligible Vietnamese voters will be able to vote between 
7:00 A.M. and 7:00 P.M. on May 20.  Traditionally, most voters cast 
their ballots in the morning before heading to the local market. 
Proxy voting is common, as a family member may cast votes for the 
whole family.  In some cases during the last NA election, local 
election council members "escorted" those who had not yet voted to 
their polling stations.  The overall turn-out rate for this election 
is likely to be over 99 percent (turnout was 99.73 percent in the 
2002 election). 
 
Voting on the Spratlys 
---------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) In a first for Vietnam -- and as part of the GVN's efforts 
to bolster its sovereignty claims in the Spratly Islands -- 
constituents in the newly established Truong Sa and Bach Long Vy 
Island districts (islands in the Spratly chain) in Khanh Hoa 
Province and Hai Phong City, respectively, cast votes on May 13.  In 
addition, voters in two communes in Truong Sa District cast ballots 
for candidates to local People's Councils. 
 
Fatherland Front Vets Candidates 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The extensive five-stage process of vetting candidates took 
months.  The process began with the National Assembly Standing 
Committee (NASC) deciding on how many representatives from the 
various social groupings (veterans, females, intellectuals, 
laborers, etc.) the NA should have.  After examining 
"qualifications," the VFF then whittled eligible candidates down to 
¶880. 
 
¶7. (SBU) A high-level contact in the Office of the National Assembly 
(ONA) told us that the Party's "screening process" prevented many 
potentially good candidates from running.  Himself, for example. 
This contact added that "100 percent" of the ONA staff supported his 
 
HANOI 00000921  002 OF 002 
 
 
possible candidacy during a formal conference.  He nonetheless was 
not allowed to run, for reasons that he would not make clear. 
 
¶8. (SBU) In spite of the Party touting early on that there would be 
"many more" independent candidates this time around, the ratio of 
independents is only slightly higher than that of the election in 
2002 (17.5 percent this time, compared with 16 percent in 2002).  In 
a May online discussion, National Assembly Vice Chairman Nguyen Van 
Yeu confirmed that some "independent" candidates are actually former 
ranking officials from CPV commissions that have been dissolved. 
 
GVN Power Brokers "Put Their Hats in the Ring" 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶9. (SBU) Several Politburo members are "contesting" seats in the NA 
election:  CPV General Secretary Nong Duc Manh in Thai Nguyen 
Province; President Nguyen Minh Triet in Ho Chi Minh City; Prime 
Minister Nguyen Tan Dzung in Haiphong City; NA Chairman Nguyen Phu 
Trong in Hanoi; Public Security Minister Le Hong Anh in Can Tho 
City; and, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Pham Gia Khiem 
in Danang City.  They all are expected to be re-elected. 
 
Tough to Self-Nominate 
---------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) During his May online discussion, NA Vice Chairman Yeu 
said self-nominated candidates, some of whom were former ranking GVN 
officials as well as popular scientists and teachers, withdraw their 
candidacies because of "voter preferences."  He confirmed, however, 
that, in some cases, Party committees had asked individual Party 
members not to run.  "As Party members, they are supposed to follow 
Party committee instructions," Yeu said. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Of the original list of self-nominated candidates, many 
either elected to withdraw or did not get through the Party vetting 
process.  Some relatively well-known -- and outspoken -- former and 
current GVN officials, including former Vice Minister of Natural 
Resources and Environment (MNRE) Dang Hung Vo, current Trade 
Minister Truong Dinh Tuyen and former Justice Minister Nguyen Dinh 
Loc have "chosen" not to run.  According to our NA contact, the CPV 
did not allow more self-nominated candidates to run because it 
feared an embarrassing scenario in which high-ranking GVN officials 
are defeated by possibly lower-ranking self-nominated candidates. 
 
 
¶12. (SBU) Former MNRE Vice Minister Vo announced his self-nomination 
in March, telling local press that Nguyen Lan Dzung, a popular local 
professor, convinced him to do so.  Professor Dzung had publicly 
appealed for individuals like Vo to run, saying "the NA needs 
delegates who are frank, devoted and knowledgeable."  After 
declaring his candidacy, Vo said he "would not mind taking on" his 
own former boss at the MNRE as an NA delegate.  In April, Vo decided 
to withdraw his candidacy, reportedly out of fear he would not 
survive the vetting process.  This followed former Party General 
Secretary Le Kha Phieu's public statement welcoming Vo's intention 
 
SIPDIS 
to run. 
 
¶13. (SBU) For his part, current Trade Minister Tuyen told local 
press in March that he had thought of applying to run for the 
elections as a self-nominated candidate, but later decided not to. 
Tuyen publicly said that one of two Party Politburo members he had 
talked to discouraged him from running, while the other had 
supported his possible candidacy.  (Note:  Party statutes say that 
Party members cannot run in the NA election unless the Party 
"assigns" them to run.  The Communist Party Secretariat screens 
government employees of the rank of vice minister or above, while 
the Politburo approves ministers and those of higher rank.  End 
Note.) 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶14. (SBU) Although the election is highly scripted, the National 
Assembly itself has become more assertive in its government 
oversight role, grilling ministers about their policies and failures 
in combating corruption.  The newly elected assembly, once seated, 
will likely continue this trend.  End Comment. 
 
MARINE