VZCZCXRO4226
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #1039/01 1341210
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 141210Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUCOCGR/COMLANTAREA COGARD PORTSMOUTH VA//AE/ACS/AX//
RHMFIUU/COMUSNAVEUR NAPLES IT
INFO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8292
RULSSGG/COMDT COGARD WASHINGTON DC//CG-00I/CG-11/CG-86
RUCXGRD/COGARD INTELCOORDCEN WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 DAKAR 001039 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR AF, AF/W, AF/RSA, PM/RSAT AND INR/AA 
NSC FOR AF SENIOR DIRECTOR PITTMAN 
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OVIP MARR PGOV ECON EAID PREL KMCA SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL SCENESETTER FOR VICE ADMIRALS STUFFLEBEEM AND 
PETERMAN 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1.  (SBU) As the Mission and the Government of Senegal (GOS) prepare 
to host you, Senegal is preparing for legislative elections on June 
3, 2007.  The Senegalese are proud to have a predominantly Muslim 
democracy that preaches tolerance and visibly supports the United 
States in promoting peace and combating terrorism.  The GOS is 
seeking to enhance economic growth to reinforce its prospects at the 
polls.  Growth has remained steady at five percent over the last 
decade, though growth fell to two percent in 2006.  Despite high 
rates of poverty and illiteracy, Senegal retains a high degree of 
political stability and coherence thus enabling the GOS to be a 
diplomatic player on a continent replete with conflicts.  With U.S. 
training and assistance, Senegal has also become one of the world's 
top ten contributors of peacekeepers. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Senegal aspires to become a more significant trading 
partner, but Senegalese producers have yet to make serious efforts 
to tap into the U.S. market, preferring to focus their exports on 
regional and European countries.  The overall economic malaise, 
especially in the agriculture and fishing sectors, has resulted in 
mass illegal migration of Senegalese to the Canary Islands (and 
hence, the European Union), a thorny issue for the GOS.  The 
prospect of a successful Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) Compact 
offers a realistic potential for breaking with the past.  Senegal 
must improve the investment climate and push forward more vigorously 
with reforms to strengthen its fragile judiciary that is lacking 
sufficient resources and often subject to external influences.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
AN IMPERFECT DEMOCRACY 
---------------------- 
¶3.  (SBU) Senegal is at an interesting juncture in its 
post-independence history.  On February 25, President Abdoulaye Wade 
(pronounced "wahd") won 56 percent of the vote in a field of 15 
candidates, with 70 percent of registered Senegalese voters going to 
the polls.  Twice-postponed parliamentary elections are slated for 
June 3, but most of the major opposition parties have decided to 
boycott them.  In 2000 and 2007, Wade won open, peaceful and highly 
competitive elections due to a strong Senegalese national desire for 
change after nearly 40 years of Socialist Party governments.  Having 
come under tough scrutiny and criticism for not having realized many 
of his campaign promises, he has undertaken major public works 
projects that benefited him politically. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Wade and his party, the Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS), 
have benefited from Senegal's institutionalization of democratic 
values, respect for human rights, expansion of tolerance, 
advancement of women's rights, and freedom of expression in all its 
forms.  As a consequence, the standards by which the performance of 
his government is being measured are admittedly higher than those of 
his predecessors, a healthy sign that the large majority of 
Senegalese expect and demand democratic behavior from this 
government. 
 
SENEGAL'S UNIQUE BRAND OF ISLAM 
------------------------------- 
¶5.  (SBU) Senegal is 95 percent Muslim, and it is instinctively 
resistant to religious extremism.  One reason for this moderation is 
Senegal's distinctive and flexible interpretation of Islam.  Another 
may be its geographic position at the western edge of the Islamic 
world.  But perhaps the principal reason is the pervasive influence 
of Sufi brotherhoods that are hostile to external influences that 
they perceive as undercutting their own stature.  The majority of 
Senegalese identify themselves with one of the four principal 
Brotherhoods (Tidjane, Mouride, Qu'adria and Layenne).  Religious 
chiefs are called marabouts.  Followers or talibes are expected to 
attach themselves to a marabout, and this allegiance is like a 
feeling for a father.  In many ways the marabouts have replaced the 
traditional village chiefs.  Politicians use these affiliations to 
advance their policies. 
 
SENEGAL'S ECONOMY: AN ACHILLES HEEL 
----------------------------------- 
¶6.  (SBU) There is general economic stability, and GDP growth 
averaged five percent annually for the last ten years.  It fell to 
two percent in 2006.  More than half the population lives in 
poverty; one-third to one-half have no reliable employment; the 
agricultural sector, which employs 60 percent of the population, is 
weak and unreliable; fishing, another big livelihood provider, has 
 
DAKAR 00001039  002 OF 004 
 
 
also been depressed mostly due to diminished fish stocks.  Most 
youth see emigration as a panacea, as shown by the recent flight of 
thousands of Senegalese, via small and dangerous boats, to the 
Canary Islands -- an entry to the European Union.  On a more 
positive note, Senegal graduated from the Highly Indebted Poor 
Countries program.  In 2005 and 2006, the IMF and the World Bank 
forgave over USD 1 billion in multilateral debt, potentially freeing 
up over USD 80 million per year for poverty reduction.  Despite 
these successes, the business environment remains difficult. 
Corruption is an issue, and while Wade has said the right things 
about combating it, members of his own family are often rumored to 
demand bribes and percentages of investments.  In the coming year, 
Senegal will face a serious budget crunch and will look to donors 
for assistance.  Most traditional donors, for their part, are 
hesitant to provide budget support without greater transparency and 
accountability of expenditures by the GOS. 
 
CLANDESTINE MIGRATION: SOCIAL ISSUE OF THE DAY 
--------------------------------------------- - 
¶7.  (U) Starting in mid-May 2006, the flow of illegal African 
migrants landing on the shores of Spain's Canary Islands reached 
alarming levels.  Over 27,000 illegal migrants, more than half of 
whom are Senegalese, were detained by Spanish authorities in 2006. 
Of the 27,000, more than 5,000 migrants were repatriated to Senegal. 
 This has generated extensive press coverage by the local and 
international media and has become a priority for the Government. 
On October 10, Senegalese Foreign Minister Cheikh Tidiane Gadio and 
his Spanish counterpart, Miguel Angel Moratinos, signed a framework 
agreement paving the way for legal immigration based on Spanish job 
market needs.  Based on the agreement, Spain will provide Senegal 
with up to USD 19 million annually over five years.  Several other 
European countries and the European Commission have also donated 
funds and equipment to improve surveillance of the Senegalese coast 
and improve border enforcement. 
 
FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITIES START IN NEIGHBORHOOD 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
¶8.  (SBU) Senegal devotes major efforts to maintaining stability on 
its borders.  While politically Wade has worked hard to expand 
Senegal's role on the continent and in world affairs, his government 
actually expends real resources (financial, material and 
humanitarian) to its near neighbors.  For example, Wade has been 
engaged in Guinea-Bissau since the September 2003 coup d'etat. 
Characteristic of Senegal's regional anxieties, Wade and his 
government continue to express great concern over the eventual 
transition in nearby Guinea in light of the failing health of its 
leader, the potential for disruptions, and a resulting influx of 
refugees to Senegal.  Wade traveled to Conakry in March to 
underscore his support for Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate and to 
call international attention to Guinea's plight.  Also, the 
sometimes erratic behavior of the recently re-elected Gambian 
President Jammeh, who rules the strategically located strip of land 
that juts into Senegal, raises Senegalese concerns over The Gambia's 
stability. 
 
CASAMANCE CONFLICT 
------------------ 
¶9.  (SBU) Internal conflict in Senegal's southernmost region of the 
Casamance has regional security implications because it borders The 
Gambia and Guinea-Bissau.  In the last year, there has been an 
increase in fighting between factions of the Casamance separatist 
movement in southern Senegal and the Senegalese military.  Reports 
of banditry in the area have also increased.  At least seven 
civilians died and over 35 were wounded in security incidents in the 
Casamance in 2006.  We continue to use our influence with GOS 
civilian and military institutions as well as with representatives 
of local communities in the Casamance to achieve reconciliation and 
a lasting resolution to the conflict. 
 
U.S. ASSISTANCE 
--------------- 
¶10.  (SBU) In addition to supporting the Casamance peace process, 
U.S. assistance to Senegal has focused on Muslim outreach, health, 
education, export promotion, promotion of women's rights, good 
governance and decentralization.  Approximately 150 Peace Corps 
Volunteers are involved in health, education, natural resource 
management and micro-enterprise programs.  Our model Muslim outreach 
program consists of assisting daaras (Koranic schools), sending 
imams, marabouts and Islamic scholars to the United States on 
International Visitor programs and donating Arabic-, French- and 
 
DAKAR 00001039  003 OF 004 
 
 
English-language materials to Islamic schools and libraries.  The 
proposed MCA Compact would more than double annual U.S. aid, 
building an industrial platform 25 miles east of Dakar to decongest 
the capital, create thousands of jobs in agro-industry and other 
sectors, and help GDP growth to reach eight percent per annum. 
 
COMMITMENT TO REGIONAL SECURITY/COOPERATION WITH U.S. 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
¶11.  (SBU) Senegal has been a loyal partner and has served as an 
operational base for every U.S. deployment to the region.  The GOS 
has supported the United States by deploying troops to the Gulf War, 
Bosnia, Haiti, Rwanda, the Central African Republic, East Timor, 
Cote d'Ivoire, Sierra Leone, Liberia, the Democratic Republic of the 
Congo (DRC), and, most recently, Sudan.  Senegal was the first 
African nation to sign up for the African Crisis Response Initiative 
(ACRI) [now the African Contingency Operations Training and 
Assistance (ACOTA)] program that provides military assistance and 
training to African militaries with the capability of participating 
in peacekeeping operations, principally in Africa.  ACOTA 
complements what remains the largest International Military 
Education and Training (IMET) program in Sub-Saharan Africa.  This 
has paid major dividends through the engagement of Senegalese troops 
in their traditional areas of interest (Cote d'Ivoire) and in areas 
of traditional interest to us (Liberia). 
 
THE U.S.-SENEGAL AGENDA 
----------------------- 
¶12.  (SBU) For the U.S., Senegal represents our most important 
francophone partner in Africa.  Perhaps not coincidentally, 
President Wade perceives himself as a good friend of President Bush. 
 He basked in the glow of the President's visit in July 2003, his 
December 2004 visit to the White House, Secretary of State Rice and 
Secretary of Agriculture Johanns' July 2005 visits, Secretary of 
 
SIPDIS 
Labor Chao's April 2007 visit and invitations to two G-8 summits. 
For Senegal, the U.S. represents an attractive alternative to 
complete dependence on France.  We also embody values that Wade 
would like to establish in Senegal, particularly economic ones. 
However, there is a realistic appreciation among knowledgeable 
Senegalese that the U.S. is not likely to supplant France as its 
principal partner any time in the foreseeable future. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) On terrorism, Senegal has been among the first African 
states to recognize the dangers posed to its own security by 
international terrorism.  It has cooperated actively with the U.S. 
in the global war on terrorism, and Senegal has ratified 12 of the 
13 key anti-terrorist conventions and protocols identified by the 
U.S.  The National Assembly enacted counterterrorism legislation at 
the end of January.  Senegal is also leading regional efforts to 
combat terrorist financing.  Intelligence sharing and vigilance 
along Senegal's borders is good and continues to improve through 
well-established channels.  We have raised our concerns with 
Senegal's leaders over the potential for unwanted influences from 
radical Muslim states, such as Iran. 
 
¶14.  (SBU) We continue to scrutinize Senegal's relationship with 
Iran, Libya, Venezuela and Cuba.  Thus far, Senegal has done a good 
job in compartmentalizing and managing those relationships to ensure 
that they do not act to undermine Senegal's stability.  We also 
continue to remind Senegal's leaders that too close an embrace will 
not be well understood nor well appreciated in Washington.  Thus 
far, Wade has gotten the message.  With respect to the situation in 
Iraq, Senegal has been more neutral than during the first Gulf War. 
(Senegal proudly provided troops to help evict Saddam from Kuwait.) 
Senegal resisted French pressure to take a more critical posture, 
and in fact Wade publicly noted his satisfaction that Saddam had 
been removed from power.  Since diplomatic relations with China were 
re-established in October 2005, the Chinese have played an 
increasingly visible role as a development partner, and the market 
share of Chinese products, especially cheap consumer goods and 
equipment and vehicles.  Large-scale foreign investment, however, 
has come mostly from France, Morocco, and India. 
 
INVESTMENT CLIMATE 
------------------ 
¶15.  (U) Potential investors, and current businesses, are concerned 
about Senegal's energy situation, about the slow pace of 
establishing an effective and transparent judiciary that understands 
commercial issues, about needed education reform, especially the 
lack of vocational education, and about burdensome labor laws that 
deter hiring and make dismissals for cause difficult.  Through our 
 
DAKAR 00001039  004 OF 004 
 
 
assistance programs and the donor community's Private Sector Working 
Group -- which is chaired by the U.S. Ambassador -- we are actively 
working with the GOS in advancing policy reforms, such as reducing 
the time and cost to start a business. 
 
BOTTOM LINE 
----------- 
¶16.  (SBU) Senegal under Wade is a good partner, very sympathetic to 
U.S. interests, and regularly seeking ways to deepen the 
relationship.  Senegal is eager to receive critical Millennium 
Challenge Corporation (MCC) funding, and, though the GOS is eager to 
conclude its Compact in 2007, the due diligence required to complete 
the project's scope of work will likely push the signing date to 
¶2008.  Economically, Senegal continues to seek U.S. partners and 
participants to improve its economy, especially in agro-industry, 
telecommunications, energy and transport.  Bilateral relations are 
very warm and continue to deepen as we expand our areas of 
cooperation and seek additional sectors of mutual benefit.  Senegal 
also carefully considers potential U.S. reactions to its particular 
foreign policy decisions, often responding favorably when we express 
our concerns, or when we seek GOS support.  In sum, Senegal enjoys a 
close identification with the United States and many of our policies 
and values. 
 
JACOBS