VZCZCXYZ0007
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #0940/01 1341446
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 141446Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8134
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 6163
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6031
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1237
RUEHGT/AMEMBASSY GUATEMALA 0241
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAY MONTEVIDEO 6438
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0409
RUEHVL/AMEMBASSY VILNIUS 0076
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000940 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
EMBASSY VILNIUS FOR THOMAS P. KELLY 
EMBASSY GUATEMALA FOR ALEX FEATHERSTONE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA:  AMBASSADOR WAYNE'S MAY 10 MEETING WITH 
LOCAL POLITICAL ANALYSTS 
 
REF: BUENOS AIRES 00906 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY: On May 10, Ambassador Wayne met with 
Argentine political analysts and pollsters to discuss the 
current political panorama and outlook for the October 
presidential elections.  While none of the participants 
admitted to knowing for sure who will be the official 
candidate, they all agreed that it appears Cristina Fernandez 
de Kirchner will run.  The group agreed that the Kirchners 
will probably wait until the last minute in late July to 
announce their candidate.  One participant raised concern 
that populist groups (piqueteros) are susceptible to 
influence from Venezuela and Iran, and that the U.S. needs to 
counter this influence.  Another noted that public opinion 
polls do not show the escalating situation in Santa Cruz 
province as a major concern among Argentines, but one of the 
analysts said he thought that further violence in the 
handling of the teacher strikes could cause serious political 
problems for Kirchner as we move closer to October.  The two 
clear points of consensus in this dynamic group were that the 
chances of significant political damage to President 
Kirchner--be it from corruption scandals or teacher 
strikes--before the October elections are small and that 
Kirchner's consistent popularity in the polls remains nearly 
unchanged.  The group was composed of analysts from various 
political backgrounds and of different ages, giving the 
discussion a rich dynamic.  There was a noticeable difference 
in the analysis and outlook of the younger analysts, who 
tended to be more supportive of strengthened democratic 
institutions than their elders at the table.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------ 
Participants 
------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU)   On May 10, Ambassador Wayne hosted a lunch of 
Argentine political analysts and pollsters.  The participants 
included Manuel Mora y Araujo, Director of IPSOS Mora y 
Araujo polling firm; Enrique Zuleta Puceiro, President of 
Social and Economic Research Foundation (FINES); Carlos 
Escude, aide to former President Carlos Menem and professor 
at Cema University; Jorge Triaca, Executive Director of 
Pensar Foundation; and Gaston Schulmeister, Project 
Coordinator for terrorism and international security at the 
Fundar Foundation.  Embassy has been working with them for 
years and maintains close contact with them. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Importance of Pinguino or Pinguina 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  The group was eager to speculate on whether 
President Kirchner or his wife, Senator Cristina Fernandez de 
Kirchner, would be the official candidate in October.  While 
none of the participants admitted to knowing for sure who 
will run, they all agreed that it appears Fernandez de 
Kirchner will be the official candidate.  Triaca noted that 
Kirchner will put off announcing the official candidate until 
it starts to cause political costs.  The group agreed that 
the Kirchners will probably wait until the last minute in 
late July to announce their candidate.  Zuleta Puceiro noted 
that the more interesting question regarding the October 
elections is: if Kirchner runs for reelection, who will 
succeed him?  Zuleta Puceiro explained that Kirchner's second 
term could be marked by a preoccupation with preserving 
Kirchner's FPV party's hold on power.  None of the 
participants offered a possible successor to President 
Kirchner besides his wife. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Weakening Institutions--no big deal? 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  The group expressed mixed opinions over the 
weakening of democratic institutions and transparency in 
Argentina.  Escude suggested that the redistribution of 
wealth is more important than ensuring Argentina has strong 
functioning institutions to support its democracy.  He argued 
that redistributing the wealth from its current concentration 
in the hands of massive corporations and elites would help to 
alleviate poverty and improve the quality of life for 
Argentines.  He also said that it would reintegrate 
marginalized sectors of the population.  Ambassador said that 
strong institutions would fill those roles. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  The younger analysts were more in favor of 
concentrating on strengthening democratic institutions and 
improving the transparency of the government.  Both 
Schulmeister and Triaca seemed more optimistic about 
Argentine commitment to democracy than the others.  They also 
held more positive views of the political opposition's 
chances to impact both the June 3 Buenos Aires mayoral 
elections and to give a good showing in the October 
presidential elections.  (COMMENT:  Both Triaca and 
Schulmeister work with opposition politicians.  END COMMENT.) 
 Escude raised concern that populist groups (piqueteros) are 
susceptible to influence from Venezuela and Iran, and that 
the U.S. needs to work to counter this influence through 
public diplomacy and outreach to these groups. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Significance of Santa Cruz Strikes 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  The group was also mixed on the significance of 
the prolonged teacher union strikes in President Kirchner's 
home province of Santa Cruz (REFTEL).  Mora y Araujo noted 
that public opinion polls do not show the escalating 
situation as a major concern among Argentines.  The group 
suggested that media coverage of the crisis is making more of 
it than it is.  Zuleta Puceiro suggested that the teachers in 
Santa Cruz were suffering from a warped sense of normal 
salaries due to the high salaries paid in the gas and oil 
sectors in the province.  Schulmeister said he thought that 
further violence in the situation could cause serious 
political problems for Kirchner as we move closer to October. 
 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  The May 10 roundtable gave the Embassy an updated 
perspective on the varied analysis of the current political 
panorama in Argentina.  There was a noticeable difference in 
the analysis and outlook of the younger analysts, who tended 
to be more supportive of strengthened democratic institutions 
than their elders at the table.  The younger analysts also 
seemed more positive about democracy and free markets in 
general, noting that their generation has only voted in 
democracy and would not tolerate a departure from democracy 
in Argentina.  The two clear points of consensus in this 
dynamic group were that the chances of significant political 
damage to President Kirchner--be it from corruption scandals 
or teacher strikes--before the October elections are small 
and that Kirchner's consistent popularity in the polls 
remains nearly unchanged.  END COMMENT. 
WAYNE