VZCZCXYZ0020
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1051/01 1491852
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 291852Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8264
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001051 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; US-LED GLOBAL WAR ON TERRORISM; US VIEWS ON 
UPCOMING ARGENTINE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS; TIES BETWEEN LATIN 
AMERICAN GOVERNMENTS AND MEDIA; US REPORT ON TOURIST SAFETY IN 
ARGENTINA; 05/29/07 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Weekend international stories focus on the US-led Global War on 
Terrorism; a US experts' views on the outcome of upcoming Argentine 
presidential elections; the relationship between the media and 
governments in Latin America; and comments on the US State 
Department's Consular Information Sheet on Argentina. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS 
 
- "What lies ahead in Bush's war on terrorism" 
 
Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin," 
opines (05/29) "Just a few months ago, Audrey Kurth Cronin, head of 
the War Studies Program, University of Oxford, published an essay in 
the prestigious International Security, a M.I.T. publication, 
analyzing the future of Al Qaeda in light of background information 
about the cycles of growth and decline of several terrorist 
organizations. One of the conclusions of her work was that 'the war 
against Al Qaeda will end even when the global war on terrorism 
prevails. 
 
"In other words, Al Qaeda will also suffer - eventually, it will not 
be able to escape its own decline and devastation. However, a 
pending problem is assessing how much damage it will be able to 
inflict until then and how to prevent it. According to Cronin, the 
US overacted vis-`-vis the September 11 threat largely because it 
lacked experience regarding terrorism in its own territory. One sign 
of this is that it was not able to act except to manifest its 
reaction in terms of a 'war without a deadline in sight.' 
 
"It is necessary to clarify that Kurth Cronin is not one of the 
increasing number of experts that are convinced that the terrorist 
threat today is continually being 'inflated' through the White 
House's lies or imbecility. According to Cronin's essay, 'the threat 
is real and undeniable.' However, she believes it is a serious 
mistake for the US to stick to the war approach in response to the 
challenge. 
 
"... It is relevant to analyze her essay now that we have 
information that US and Iranian delegates discussed yesterday in 
Baghdad types of cooperation to resolve the chaos in Iraq. There is 
a bit of humility on the edge of humiliation for Washington in this 
meeting - sitting to see whether it can achieve some conclusion from 
the Iranian theocracy which it has promised at minimum to wipe off 
from earth." 
 
- "Washington is concerned over Kirchner's back and forth moves" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," penned (05/28) "Will he or will she be 
the one who will stay after October? This is the first riddle 
intriguing government officials, academia and analysts in this city 
and on Wall Street. The second riddle is about what has happened in 
Argentina in recent weeks as the Government seems to have lost 
control of a few political and social threats after four years in 
office. And they wonder until what point the Kirchner 
administration's back and forth moves will continue. 
 
"... The US Department of State keeps silent. In public, it only 
emphasizes its 'excellent' ties to the Argentine Government in the 
struggle against terrorism and (non) nuclear proliferation, among 
other topics of common interest... But in private, high-ranking 
sources of the Bush administration express doubts and lament the 
'opportunities' the Government is reportedly missing to consolidate 
the country's economic growth and attract investment instead of 
'experimenting' 'erroneous' prescriptions, such as price controls. 
 
"... In any event, some experts in Latin American affairs, such as 
Riordan Roett, Michael Shifter and Peter DeShazo, agree that the 
Government has high chances of winning in October, whether with 
Kirchner or Senator Cristina Fernandez. But, just like Mark Falcoff, 
from the American Enterprise Institute, they have made some 
warnings. Falcoff said 'Argentina's history tends to be cyclical.' 
He recalled that all governments 'enjoyed a moment of euphoria and 
backing by the masses, and ended up suffering a loss of prestige and 
collapse.' And he added 'Kirchner is at a high curve of a cycle. He 
can only hope to land more softly than all his predecessors did.'" 
 
- "South America's media in the loop" 
 
Ines Capdevila, international columnist for daily-of-record "La 
Nacion," writes (05/27) "In the South America of recent decades, the 
relationship between governments and the media has always been 
changing. Sometimes, it was a hate relationship, with journalists 
 
 
 
chased and murdered. At other times, it was a love relationship with 
presidents elected in part, thanks to the support of the media. 
 
"Today, far from that marriage of convenience, the relationship has 
another increasingly common feature. 
 
"Mistrustful and suspicious, regional governments are increasingly 
adopting confrontation as a strategy with the media. 
 
"The confrontational strategy takes different forms. One is Michelle 
Bachelet's closed off posture toward the media, then we have Lula's 
irony, which verges on contempt. And the third, Hugo Chavez's 
outright war on the media, a road also followed by Evo Morales and 
Rafael Correa. 
 
"... According to Marcelino Bisbal, a Caracas expert in 
communication, with his recent revocation of RCTV's license, Chavez 
(an admirer of the Cuban regime, which is renowned for its 
censorship of freedom of expression) has opened a course already 
being followed by Correa and Morales, although at an initial 
stage." 
 
- "Yankees go home?" 
 
Liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires Herald" (05/25) 
editorializes "Reacting or overacting? The government's testy 
response to a routine report on tourist safety from Washington's 
State Department was surely timed with an eye to the City elections 
now only nine days away - a district where the left-leaning and 
anti-US component of the electorate is numerous. In any report on 
any nation the US is always going to place the safety of its own 
travelers above the feelings of that country as a matter of 
professional responsibility but most of the dangers listed in the 
report are real enough... Perhaps the only area where the report 
strays from strict objectivity into gratuitous alarmism is in 
highlighting terrorism in the Triple Frontier where terrorist 
activity takes farm more the form of possible fund-raising by 
Islamic fundamentalist groups rather than the certainty of 
suicide-bombers - i.e., nothing which threatens the tourist 
directly. 
 
"But perhaps the most unfortunate aspect is the way the US doubts 
are perceived as an insult to t he government rather than the 
country as a while with the FM speaking of 'unjustified alarms which 
displease the Argentine Government.' The Government is only making 
itself ridiculous when it splutters over a report containing such 
definitions as 'Argentina is a middle-income country which suffered 
a severe economic crisis in 2001-2'... But, how can a Washington 
report refrain from any crime alert when US President George W. 
Bush's own daughter was mugged in San Telmo only six months ago? 
 
"Government reactions to the US travel safety report are yet another 
example of shooting the messenger - the rational response is to seek 
to remove the reasons for criticism. If this government prides 
itself on being socially progressive and if poverty is one of the 
main roots of crime, why not take this report as an invitation to 
intensify the quest for social justice?... Yet all in all, the 
reactions to Washington's report should be seen as cheap 
electioneering rather than as even a blip in bilateral relations." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
WAYNE