VZCZCXRO7107
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
DE RUEHBS #1642/01 1361359
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 161359Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5393
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001642 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BE
SUBJECT: BELGIAN ELECTIONS PROSPECTIVE: UP FOR GRABS 
 
REF: 2006 BRUSSELS 3681 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  With the June 10 national elections fast 
approaching, Belgium's political leaders are beginning to 
focus on the nitty-gritty mathematical aspects of forming the 
next governing coalition.  Most observers believe there are 
four possibilities -- continuation of the present Flemish and 
Walloon Liberal/Socialist "purple" coalition; a similar 
combination in which the two liberal partners are replaced by 
the two Christian-Democrat parties; a Liberal, Socialist, 
Christian Democrat, and Green coalition; or, least likely, a 
combination in which the Socialists head the opposition.  The 
current partners appear to prefer carrying on with another 
term of the present purple coalition.  The continued weakness 
in the polls of the Prime Minister's Flemish Liberals (Open 
VLD) are making this appear increasingly unlikely, hence the 
scramble to devise something different.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Belgium's low key electoral campaign has yielded few 
fireworks beyond a couple of waspish "Yes you did/No I did 
not" exchanges between Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt and his 
principal rival, Flemish Minister-President Yves Leterme. 
The real action is taking place off-stage as the parties 
assess how they might, or might not, fit into the next 
coalition.  Having spoken to a broad range of senior party 
insiders, we have discerned four basic models about what 
might happen next.  They are detailed in the following 
paragraphs. 
 
RENEWING THE CURRENT FORMULA 
---------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) The present governing coalition includes two liberal 
parties, Verhofstadt's Open VLD and the Francophone MR led by 
current Finance Minister Didier Reynders, and two socialist 
parties, the Flemish SP.A and the Francophone PS. 
Verhofstadt and his partners clearly would like to keep their 
partnership intact, not least because doing so would provide 
continuity and afford the smoothest transition after the 
election.  It is not impossible to imagine a return to this 
purple coalition since, according to the last pre-campaign 
polls, three of the four parties have solid numbers.  That 
said, the weakness of the fourth party -- Verhofstadt's Open 
VLD, which has remained mired near the bottom of the polls 
for over a year -- has prompted his partners to look at other 
options.  His Flemish supporters appear to believe that 
Verhofstadt has made too many compromises on social issues 
with the PS.  His high energy level also overwhelms many 
staid Flemings. 
 
A CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC-SOCIALIST PARTNERSHIP 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) If voters force the present coalition partners to 
divorce, party leaders will look seriously to link up the two 
Christian Democratic parties (CD&V on the Flemish side and 
CdH on the Francophone side) with the two socialist parties. 
Under this scenario, which one senior Francophone socialist 
leader termed "the most comfortable and likely outcome," 
either Leterme or SP.A leader Johan Vande Lanotte would 
become Prime Minister, with the two Francophone parties 
taking command of other key ministries.  There are at least 
two complicating factors, including the chance that the PS 
would become the largest single party in parliament, an 
eventuality that would raise the question of whether a 
Francophone (the linguistic minority in Belgium) could become 
Prime Minister.  The second complication would derive from 
the difficult personal relationship between the two Christian 
Democratic leaders, Leterme and Francophone Joelle Milquet. 
 
LEAVING THE SOCIALISTS OUT ( 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) This is probably the least likely possibility, most 
observers here believe.  The two socialist parties together 
may well form the largest single party "family," meaning they 
could have the first chance to put a government together. 
They could thus form such a large bloc that no coalition 
would be possible without them.  Similarly, the poor 
relationship between other parties (and within some parties) 
makes it all but certain that Belgium's government will 
include socialists. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Francophone Socialist leaders fear the electoral 
consequences of a widening split within their ranks between a 
majority faction centered around current party leader Elio Di 
Rupo and an opposing van Cauwenberghe group led by the former 
Walloon Minister-President.  Corruption scandals involving 
van Cauwenberghe's circle have created an opening for other 
parties, notably the MR, and seriously diminished Di Rupo's 
chances of becoming the first Francophone prime minister in 
many years.  If another corruption scandal becomes public 
 
BRUSSELS 00001642  002 OF 002 
 
 
between now and the election, the socialists could easily be 
knocked off their perch as the largest single party family. 
 
- AND LETTING THE GREENS IN 
--------------------------- 
¶7. (SBU) Any revival in the electoral fortunes of the Prime 
Minister's party will increase the chances of a coalition 
including the two green parties, Ecolo in the Francophone 
part of the country and Groen! in the Flemish speaking 
section.  Such a coalition also presupposes that the greens 
succeed in taking votes away from the socialists.  This would 
be difficult, but not impossible.  All parties are burnishing 
their green credentials, and appear determined to steal as 
many votes as possible from the greens. 
IMBRIE 
.