VZCZCXYZ0013
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBS #1576/01 1311138
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 111138Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5338

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 001576 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL BE
SUBJECT: BELGIUM'S ELECTION CAMPAIGN 
 
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A Flash In the Pan 
------------------ 
 
¶1. (U) Belgian electoral campaigns are short affairs, 
lasting little more than a month, with important 
decisions having been made long before the electorate is 
called to the polls.  At this point, the parties have 
completed their candidate tickets, which translates into 
a guaranteed seat in the new Parliament for most 
parliamentarians standing for re-election.  The upcoming 
election is really about the swing seats ? those 
positions opened by departing MPs.  With the outcome of 
the election unpredictable, and because Belgian politics 
features many small parties due to ideology and 
linguistic divisions, a few seats shifting from one party 
to another can have far reaching effects. 
 
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Five Contenders for the Highest Office 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The political parties have completed their policy 
platforms, with few themes and divisive issues to impact 
the campaign.  Party leaders know only too well that 
unrelated events, more than issues, can have a dramatic 
impact on the final tally.  (In 1999 a food poisoning 
incident directly contributed to the fall of then Prime 
Minister Jean-Luc Dehaene, a Flemish Christian Democrat.) 
The present campaign may be short on themes, but it is 
not short on personalities.  For the first time in 
election history, five politicians are openly vying for 
Prime Minister: the outgoing PM Guy Verhofstadt, the 
Socialist leaders Johan Vande Lanotte (SP.A) and Elio Di 
Rupo (PS) respectively from the Flemish and Francophone 
sides, the Francophone Liberal (MR) leader Didier 
Reynders, and the Flemish Christian Democratic (CD&V) 
opposition leader Yves Leterme. 
 
----------------------- 
Socialist-Liberal Blues 
----------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The field of contenders is packed because there 
is a general "purple blues."  After eight years in power 
the Liberal-Socialist coalition (hence the blue and red 
mix) has lost much of its drive and appeal.  Socialist 
and Liberals leaders, while standing by what they have 
achieved over the past eight years, argue that the 
upcoming election is not about continuing the current 
coalition.  But there is little doubt that if they 
command a majority in both houses of parliament, 
Socialists and Liberals will continue the purple 
coalition for another four years.  And if needed, they 
may also seek the support of the two Green parties, the 
Flemish Groen! and Francophone ECOLO, harking back to the 
composition of PM Verhofstadt?s first cabinet. 
 
------------------- 
Reynders v. Di Rupo 
------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Another main feature of the present campaign is 
the bitter confrontation between Di Rupo and Reynders. 
The Francophone Liberals (MR) of Vice Premier Didier 
Reynders remain traumatized by the change in coalition 
following the 2004 regional elections, when Di Rupo 
dropped the MR to form a Walloon regional coalition 
government with the Francophone Christian Democrats (CDH) 
of Joelle Milquet.  Perceiving now that Socialist and 
Christian Democrats are too close for comfort (and 
mindful that previous coalitions linked Liberals and 
Christian Democrats), Reynders has started attacking Di 
Rupo, and the confrontation has already deteriorated to 
the point that two are now insulting each other.  Di Rupo 
is irked by the role MR politicians have played in 
unearthing the scandals involving local Socialist 
officials, especially in Di Rupo's own Hainaut Province. 
Moreover, Reynders continues to criticize PS Justice 
Minister Laurette Onkelinx, claiming her tenure as 
Justice Minister has been a failure.  Philippe Moureaux, 
the Brussels-based number two in the PS, has already 
publicly pleaded for a Socialist-Christian Democratic 
coalition.  This has resulted in some MR leaders arguing 
the case of a coalition of Liberals, Christian Democrats 
and Greens to oust the PS from the federal government. 
However, many observers doubt this is a workable 
scenario. 
 
¶5. (SBU) CDH and Ecolo performed poorly in the 2003 
general elections, and have every reason to believe they 
will pick up votes.  Both parties try to stay out of the 
fray, hoping that once the election is over they will 
join the federal government. 
 
--------------------------------- 
The Battle for the Highest Office 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Flanders will be the scene of a direct 
confrontation between three prime ministerial hopefuls: 
the incumbent Verhofstadt, Socialist party president 
Johan Vande Lanotte, and Flemish Minister-President Yves 
Leterme for the CD&V.  At the outset of the campaign 
Verhofstadt argued that constitutional reform was not a 
priority for the voters. Aware that his party is not 
performing well in the polls, he has changed his mind, 
arguing that the next cabinet should be composed of the 
three traditional families (Liberals, Socialists, and 
Christian Democrats), who would command enough votes in 
Parliament to amend the constitution.  As one commentator 
put it, Verhofstadt "tries to lie in the middle of the 
bed," casting himself in the role of the only Belgian 
statesman capable of bringing Flemish and Francophone 
parties together.  Generally, no single Belgian party 
scores, on average, more than 26 percent of the vote in 
its respective linguistic group, thus coalition building 
is the only way into government.  Verhofstadt's Flemish 
challengers Leterme and Vande Lanotte are both pleading 
for devolving additional economic and social competencies 
to the regional governments, but are keeping all options 
open as to the make-up of the future coalition. 
Belgium's political history shows that a "grand 
coalition" of six parties is not necessary to amend the 
country's institutional fabric, as on several occasion 
this has been achieved with the help of opposition 
parties. 
 
-------------------- 
Verhofstadt's Record 
-------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Unemployment remains the top economic issue. 
"Open VLD" (Flemish Liberal) Party President Bart Somers 
stresses confidence in the future and his party is 
promising another 200,000 new jobs, to be generated 
through government measures.  SP.A leader Vande Lanotte 
has added an additional 60,000 jobs to this target.  In 
Wallonia, the PS has once again positioned itself as the 
guardian of the welfare system, promising entitlements 
will remain out of harm's way and voicing the intention 
to carve out room for additional welfare outlays.  The PS 
wants health care spending to increase at a steady 4.5 
percent annual real growth rate. 
 
¶8.  (U) Another major economic issue is building a war 
chest to deal with the cost of a rapidly aging 
population. The outgoing government has generated 
awareness of the issue and has decided on a few rather 
symbolic measures.  All parties know that, henceforth, 
more belt-tightening will be needed.  Afraid of doomsday 
messages that might upset the electorate, the governing 
parties bank on the traditional (if unproven) assumption 
of sustained economic growth to deal with the aging 
issue.  The promise to cut taxes, on which Verhofstadt?s 
Open VLD built its 1999 and 2003 successes, has lost much 
of its lure.  As the return for the taxpayer has been 
rather disappointing, the issue is featured less 
prominently in the present campaign. 
 
------------------ 
The Al Gore Effect 
------------------ 
 
¶9. (U) Former Vice-President Al Gore has also had a major 
impact on Belgium's election campaign.  The environment 
buzz generated by his motion picture has the two Green 
parties feeling vindicated and showing growing 
confidence.  On both sides of the linguistic border, but 
particularly in Flanders, Socialists and Greens are 
locked in a head-on confrontation vying for the 
environment-conscious voter.  The two Green parties have 
produced very radical platforms which will be hard to 
reconcile with those submitted by the traditional 
parties.  However, the misadventure of the Greens in 
France may have a sobering effect on Belgian Green 
dreams. 
 
------------- 
Vlaams Belang 
------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) In stark contrast with earlier elections, there 
is less fear of another Vlaams Belang (Belgium's ultra- 
nationalist party) onslaught in Flanders.  The 2006 
municipal elections were a disappointment for the Flemish 
far right and, since October 2006, the Vlaams Belang has 
been undergoing its own internal conflicts, with 
officials defecting and newer members challenging the old 
guard.  In the upcoming election, the party will be 
directly challenged by maverick Senator Jean-Marie 
Dedecker, who was evicted from the Open VLD ranks.  He 
has the potential of inflicting some damage on the Vlaams 
Belang, but the VB was never likely to be invited to join 
any coalition. 
 
----------------- 
And Finally . . . 
----------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) True to form, Belgium's position in the world 
is not an issue in this campaign.  Defense Minister Andre 
Flahaut (PS) has over the years increasingly used the 
forces as a private army for his personal glory, and this 
has greatly upset Flemish majority and opposition 
parties.  SP.A leader Vande Lanotte has already warned 
that there is room to further cut defense outlays, and 
the idea has not been turned down off-hand by the other 
party leaders. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Flemish Minister-President Yves Leterme has 
announced his candidacy.  This was a turning point in the 
campaign, as from that moment on the election was a 
direct confrontation between Prime Minister Verhofstadt, 
seeking a third term, and his Christian Democratic 
challenger, who  will seek to re-position his party in 
the middle of the political field, the pivotal position 
it lost to the Open VLD back in 1999. 
IMBRIE